Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19025. (Read 26610913 times)

NLC 'tis you? And couldn't have answered it better than becoin

Well yes at it's very basic can't argue against this.

The flaw in your logic is that currently even with 1MB block we can technically reach 100% utilization in every single block. i.e. all of BTCs (15MM) can fit in a single block (if all of BTCs are transfered to few input addresses). Here's one transaction for BTC195K that only took up 7kb https://blockchain.info/tx/1c12443203a48f42cdf7b1acee5b4b1c1fedc144cb909a3bf5edbffafb0cd204

It bewilders me that i have to explain to you there there can't be a network congestion failure, just a fee market economy. If you send a transaction now with 0 fees and it doesn't confirm is that a network congestion failure too?

Again there is no such thing as a "physical inability to get their transactions processed" just a fee might be prohibitive and not worth it for a particular transaction.

Learn the difference between money and commodity and you'll know something about "basic economics".

I agree with you but if you don't mind, could you please elaborate the bolded part.

Nah, that's not basic economics, that's Beanie economics. If Exxon gasoline is in short supply, it doesn't mean it's suddenly more valuable & you can charge more at your Exxon gas station. There are alternatives -- people will simply switch to Shell.
Tacking on "That's basic economics" at the end only shows that you're yet to grasp basic economics.

halving is not priced in, if it does go up due to halving it will be 2 or months after halving. Prices are set on the margin and monetary pricing is always very sticky, i.e. hovering around big numbers for long times and then moving rapidly to next big number 'set-point', due to unit denomination psychology.

Yes, "they" exist, but I believe it is too conspiratorial to concede them too much weight and credit.

That sounds like nearly a sure bet.... not only free money, but easy money.   

No you're not competing with the other 15mil bitcoin market, as most of those bitcoins are NOT for sale. That's basic economics. I don't think we can go any further if you don't agree with basic supply vs. demand concept

As far as predicting the price, i have 16 coins, and one of them will predict correct up/down market moves 4 times in a row!!!!!! 

... this idiotic statement refuses to acknowledge that there are already a great number of bitcoin transactions that do not take place on the bitcoin network, and they can also lead to price appreciation from an increased network effect.

Your argument is simplistically idiotic because it is the equivalent of saying that if everybody cannot use FedWire then USdollar usage cannot increase.

I know damn well where it's from, but you didn't answer my question.  Utilization can only grow until it hits the limit, at which point it can't continue to grow.  In the process, of course I understand that low value transactions will be replaced by relatively higher value transactions that merit higher fees, but there is still a limit and because of the correlation between price and utilization, there is a limit on price. We can debate what that limit is, but it's there.  There is a price beyond which a network congestion failure is an inevitable certainty if capacity is constant.  This should be so obvious, it bewilders me that I even have to say it. What is the cognitive disconnect of smallblockers who think capacity limits aren't also price limits? 

Look, if price keeps going up, it's going to attract new users, traders, speculators etc. This is obvious. There is no way to stop it. The growth will continue to come until something prevents them from participating, like a physical inability to get their transactions processed. What else could stop them? The ONLY thing that I think would do it is if the price stopped rising. Do you have another idea?

So either we will eventually get a network congestion failure or a complete halt in price appreciation without additional capacity.  This is not an opinion. This is a logical certainty. 

when I buy a bitcoin post halving I am not competing with others to buy the 1800 just minted. I am competing with others in a 15 million bitcoin market. The lessening of supply by 1800 is peanuts and will not move the price.

yes if miners keep their coins they are in effect buying them but at what price? Or rather what price do they wish to sell to pay for electricity etc. I understand alot of minors sell off market to big buyers at much lower prices than the "going' retail bitcoin price.

you are right my 3% is just a guess. But there is no way of being accurate - all i know is the price rise as a result of halving is very very unlikely.
what is your guess for the price in mid july? Post it and we will see who is more accurate then.

Quote is from Hearn's rage quit. By growth he's talking about giving free access to something that is limited in supply by design. Think it's obvious that it won't work. Make a block 80MB and if it's free (or almost free) to fill up someone will. Utilization can continue to grow even if it costs few cents extra for a space in a block.

Right now someone is buying up* BTC3600 every single day. Come july only BTC1800 in new coins will be available for sale. With so much unknown your 3% math makes me laugh.

*Someone doesn't mean one entity. Even if miners decide to carry BTC on their balance sheets then they're doing the buying themselves.

They = market makers. Whoever that might be.

Based on your sig, If Bitcoin is not allowed to grow, won't price decline? I mean it seems impossible to have price appreciation without growth. There is no way to stop growth that won't also stop appreciation.

by now not only should all the halving be built into the price but so should each persons views on consensus, centralisation of mining etc.

So I see it staying the price it is now ie $400+/- 5%.

However it seems many posters have confused the halving issue - its not reducing potential 'supply" much at all ie the ability of people to buy coins. We already have millions you can buy and we are just halving the rate new coins come to the market.

So once these people see after the halving there is no price rise a share will sell so the price will fall a little. I guess it will take  1 month after halving for them to all sell off some/all of their holdings and it will drop the price about 3%. so the price will then be $388+/-5.

So sell some of your coins about mid June and and buy them back mid August for less. A 3% gain is not much in bit coin terms but it is virtually guaranteed. Who does not love free money.

Who is they?

 You are talking about the overall BTC market price? 

BTC's Market price is determined by a large number of diverse people and entities with diverse agendas, and likely a lot of them consider what others are doing in order to decide their own behaviors (whether buying, selling or holding), and at the same time, some individuals/entities follow formulas based on their own perspectives and risk tolerances in order to front-run what they believe others are likely to do. 

I will concede that some "they s" are more powerful and influential than other "they s" in moving BTC's market prices, but even so, those they s likely do not determine with any kind of precision BTC's price movements.

I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?

This site is dying. Censorship tends to do that.