Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19132. (Read 26607984 times)

legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1688
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
Your refusal to consider what they are saying seems myopic. They are not complaining about another 3-4 cents. They are complaining about unknowable transaction inclusion times.

Transaction inclusion can never be a given. You could hit 2 miners mining empty blocks because that's what they want to do - even if you pay 5$ in fees.

Transaction confirmation time can also never be a given, because the 10 minutes are an average. A block could be delayed 2 hours or you could have 5 blocks found in 20 minutes, due to variance..

That's the nature of bitcoin.

You insult my intelligence. Intentionally? Or is that all the ammo you have?

The amount of determinism in a usually-full-block scenario is vastly reduced in comparison to the usually-room-in-blocks scenario. Period. You realize this, right?
legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1688
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
Your refusal to consider what they are saying seems myopic. They are not complaining about another 3-4 cents. They are complaining about unknowable transaction inclusion times.

If they used a modern wallet that calculated the dynamic fees than they wouldn't need to worry. I can use a normal priority setting with bitcoin core and get within the next block every time, no concerns(even with this probable spam attack).

That hardly seems like a solution that would work for large commercial purposes. Do you envision some poor lonely character toiling 24 hours a day, looking up an entry in an accounts payable database, checking some source for the proper transaction fee at that instant, and then handcrafting a transaction, keyed by hand, into some generic wallet?

I mean it might work for a small operation, but does not work at scale. Yes, they could craft a SW solution of their own to do this. Yet if they rely on some central fee/byte trend tracker, that's one more nexus of trustful behavior.

And again, you are ignoring what they have said. Whether or not true, it is certainly plausible that they have abandoned bitcoin for this part of their operations for exactly this reason.

You seem to believe that the only route in and out of alts -- and all use cases of alts -- involve Bitcoin. I submit to you that this is likely to be false. Over time, should Bitcoin keep ostracizing more and more use cases, this presumed partial dependency is likely to become less and less.

You seem to be under the impression that I'm a bitcoin Maximalist, which isn't the case. I have been quit clear my objections to Ethereum(and it has little to do with bitcoins network effect) and would be perfectly happy giving up bitcoin for a better suited alt if the need arose.

I was making no value judjement about you being a Bitcoin maximalist (whatever that is) - my counter stands on its own. Allow me to restore your quote that you later snipped:

Quote
... many clients are dumping a portion of these mined alts for btc anyways and it is less expensive to pay 4 pennies more than any exchange fee.

Were you not trying to imply that the larger transaction fee was less than the amount lost in converting from alt to bitcoin for the purpose of cashing out? 'Cause that's certainly what it looks like.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
Your refusal to consider what they are saying seems myopic. They are not complaining about another 3-4 cents. They are complaining about unknowable transaction inclusion times.

Transaction inclusion can never be a given. You could hit 2 miners mining empty blocks because that's what they want to do - even if you pay 5$ in fees.

Transaction confirmation time can also never be a given, because the 10 minutes are an average. A block could be delayed 2 hours or you could have 5 blocks found in 20 minutes, due to variance..

That's the nature of bitcoin.

That's the best thing about Bitcoin -- not like legacy finance, NOT BORING.
  
  "Bitcoin's like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get." --brainyquote.com
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049
Lol... The last 4 LTC blocks (the equivalent of 1 BTC block), LTC had 4-2-3-6 txs, of which 4 are the block rewards (so actual txs = 11).

Last BTC block had over 2000 txs. It's averaging between 2k and 3k txs per block (last 6: 2165/3079/2496/2300/2782/3012).

Why the lol? No... really.

Are you trying to make the case that the only reason LTC has only processed 11 transactions in that time is because they are limited to that number? Would that be by design or by flaw?

Huh? I'm not making that case at all. It's well known LTC has 4x capacity (1mb blocks 4x more frequently) than BTC yet the market is not using it.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 994
Merit: 1035
Etherum taking over? What the fuck is this shillcoin even doing at a marketcap of $600mill Huh

Exactly , I am being generous to even entertain hypothetical practical future usage cases of ethereum and have yet to hear someone mention one example. Seems like many speculators are gambling with their btc for a chance that MSFT or IBM starts buying ethereum... little do they know if these corporations ever do start seriously using ethereum it will be on their own fork.

Embrace , Extend, Extinguish.

How soon they forget. MSFT buying into a sell wall of greedy 16 year olds or selling their own fork which has a much higher level of trust and brand recognition than Vitaliks org?
legendary
Activity: 3556
Merit: 9709
#1 VIP Crypto Casino
Etherum taking over? What the fuck is this shillcoin even doing at a marketcap of $600mill Huh

Give it a few months. Should be funny to see the inevitable avalanche of a dump.
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049
Your refusal to consider what they are saying seems myopic. They are not complaining about another 3-4 cents. They are complaining about unknowable transaction inclusion times.

Transaction inclusion can never be a given. You could hit 2 miners mining empty blocks because that's what they want to do - even if you pay 5$ in fees.

Transaction confirmation time can also never be a given, because the 10 minutes are an average. A block could be delayed 2 hours or you could have 5 blocks found in 20 minutes, due to variance..

That's the nature of bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1688
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
Lol... The last 4 LTC blocks (the equivalent of 1 BTC block), LTC had 4-2-3-6 txs, of which 4 are the block rewards (so actual txs = 11).

Last BTC block had over 2000 txs. It's averaging between 2k and 3k txs per block (last 6: 2165/3079/2496/2300/2782/3012).

Why the lol? No... really.

Are you trying to make the case that the only reason LTC has only processed 11 transactions in that time is because they are limited to that number? Would that be by design or by flaw?

Point is, while Bitcoin has captured a paltry $6B market cap (as compared to global monetary base), pointing your finger at another even smaller entity (~2.4%) and laughing makes you look the petty bully.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
Etherum taking over? What the fuck is this shillcoin even doing at a marketcap of $600mill Huh
legendary
Activity: 994
Merit: 1035
Your refusal to consider what they are saying seems myopic. They are not complaining about another 3-4 cents. They are complaining about unknowable transaction inclusion times.

If they used a modern wallet that calculated the dynamic fees than they wouldn't need to worry. I can use a normal priority setting with bitcoin core and get within the next block every time, no concerns(even with this probable spam attack).

You seem to believe that the only route in and out of alts -- and all use cases of alts -- involve Bitcoin. I submit to you that this is likely to be false. Over time, should Bitcoin keep ostracizing more and more use cases, this presumed partial dependency is likely to become less and less.

You seem to be under the impression that I'm a bitcoin Maximalist, which isn't the case. I have been quit clear my objections to Ethereum(and it has little to do with bitcoins network effect) and would be perfectly happy giving up bitcoin for a better suited alt if the need arose.
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049

One good thing though: there seems to be remarkably few empty blocks in the last hours.

Antpool was getting a nice ribbing today for mining empty blocks because they don't want to pause their miners for a few seconds. Perhaps they stopped , but comments on twitter suggested they will continue this practice most have avoided lately regardless of it limiting the capacity of the network. Somewhat hypocritical being they are one of the more sympathetic large pools to classic besides slush.... but as Satoshi envisioned, we should be fine with security even if miners are selfishly competing for their own self interest and care little about the ecosystem.  

Is this what the dreaded "fee market event" or "blockopolapse" is supposed to look like? My txs are immediately confirming on the next block with 4-6 pennies more than the average last week? Any more predictions for the end of the world?

Last week it was at 40-50 satoshi/byte, now it's at 60 satoshi/byte (actually the 51-60 range has 0 wait), so it's unikely you are paying 4-6 pennies more (unless your wallet is overpaying). More like 0-2.

https://bitcoinfees.21.co/


the last month in words: exponential fee rise in bitcoin vs exponential price rise in ethereum. which one do you prefer!?

Spammers don't pay exponentially higher. They are using the leftover free space, that's why fees don't go up in any serious degree.

As for ethereum it has more serious issues in terms of scaling than bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1688
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
I would find it pretty amusing if all the hostile arseholes squabbling in Bitcoinland were abandoned completely by the people who really count - the users.

I wouldn't. I'm somewhat invested in Bitcoin.

Quote
How do we know something like LTC or any other alt can handle the pressure?

We don't. What we do know is that there are scads of alts that are hungry for any portion of Bitcoin's current market share, and are likely to implement anything seen as a competitive advantage.

Quote
The same old shit would pop up wherever the heat was pointed.

I personally don't believe that upping the block size by some low integer value is going to be problematic. As long as max block size stays behind the rate of Moore's Postulate, this should cause no issues. If it does get ahead, I trust miners to not fuck up the system.

Quote
There should've been more vision when Bitcoin was still under the radar. All this crap is firefighting when it should have been set up to cruise into the future by this point.

This discussion has been going on for years. Core's obstinance to not address it in time for the intercept of:
    a) the max block size over time curve; and
    b) the actual block size over time curve,
demonstrates a failure of leadership.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
Hope $430 holds... On a more positive note, consolidation ~$350 would be perfectly healthy & actually good for Bitcoin Smiley
legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1688
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
It would be helpful to acknowledge that Prohashing is a scrypt mining pool for altcoin mining. What a shocking statement coming from them  Roll Eyes  Let me know when Coinbase, bitpay or any other large merchant starts recommending an alt.

Point taken. But did they used to pay out in Bitcoin? If so, it is one valid data point.

Even in a great upheaval, the movement happens at the margins. Best stay alert.

They pay out in multiple alts . If their margins are so tight that they cannot afford an extra 3-4 pennies per tx ...

Your refusal to consider what they are saying seems myopic. They are not complaining about another 3-4 cents. They are complaining about unknowable transaction inclusion times.

Quote
... many clients are dumping a portion of these mined alts for btc anyways and it is less expensive to pay 4 pennies more than any exchange fee.

You seem to believe that the only route in and out of alts -- and all use cases of alts -- involve Bitcoin. I submit to you that this is likely to be false. Over time, should Bitcoin keep ostracizing more and more use cases, this presumed partial dependency is likely to become less and less.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
systems must also be adaptive. otherwise they die. life and death in this sense are also only seperated by time.

the nice thing is. we will find out, if we were too fast too slow or exactly right. other cryptos will try different settings; and one of these will probably be far superior to the settings the divided bitcoin community set for itself.


Let them do it. Who cares?

And if it's acceptable, feasible and seems fitting for Bitcoin, then Bitcoin can incorporate it down the road. Bitcoin is not currently broken in spite the many loud mouth fudding about Bitcoin supposedly being broken.

i fear, this assumption was/is wrong.


What assumption?

You mean the assumption that bitcoin is going to be able to incorporate various competitive aspects of various alts down the road?


Even if bitcoin cannot incorporate all competitive aspects of various alts, so what?  Other alts can exist, and even take away some of bitcoin's market share... It doesn't really matter that much.  Bitcoin has it's own various advantages, and that continues to be it's level of computing power and security.  If some other coin becomes more competitive in that sense, then let it happen.. it is still a long way down the road and there are a lot of things that can happen.  Accordingly, currently, bitcoin is in a very good position and has a lot to offer (in spite of ongoing fud regarding the sky falling, supposedly).
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Can't wait until small block retards are proved to be irresponsible idiots by empirical data points.

We should make a list of them, so in the future we will never forget who they were and humiliate them forever.


There's no such thing as a small block retard.

People have ideas and inclinations based on information that they have, and there's a lot of misinformation out there regarding what's even going on with the block chain; how much is spam, whether an increase is currently justified and/or wether segregated witness will take care of some if not all of this spamming blockage to the extent blockage exists and if not what would be better additional solutions going forward once segregated witness is in place.
Yeah people have different ideas and most of them are dumb ideas.

That's why it's important to relie on the empirical facts to judge who are right and who are the fucking irresponsible retards. It's darwinian selection. It's a process way more efficient than pointless debating.

So now we are going to see that full block are not good at all and see who were the dangerous retards who thought full blocks were somehow cool.

It's like the bolcheviks. They have ideas and they thought they were right. They talked badly of people who disagree with them. Then the testing of their ideas prove that they were huge retards and that they had their head full shit. Gmaxwell and Adam Back are the Lenin of their time. The sooner the market route around them, the better.

It seems to me you have a very precise idea of your own position at least.

I don't have such brutal and clear opinion on this issue. And from the grasp of complexity I was able to see, it seems impossible for me to have a clear point of view of the situation as we're still lacking data.

Yeah small blocks have problems, but what do you want? Bigger and bigger blocks? You do realize that in order to scale the Visa transactions we would need 800GB blocks... Seems complicated to me...

Yep. In that respect, when dealing with money and likely to continue to be attacked by governments and financial institutions, security is much more important than trying to grow too fast and to act as if you are visa when you don't have institutionalized protections.
Size is the most powerful protection. The most economic transactions flow through Bitcoin the harder it is to attack it.

"Trying to grow too fast"  Cheesy Transactions double every year. That's just natural growth. If you don't like growth go use some altcoins before Bitcoin become one.

You are ridiculous.

You are not saying much of anything in your above post.. or at least whatever you seem to be saying is quite unclear.  You seem to be attempting to suggest that currently bitcoin is suffering from some kind of pending emergency, when actually the opposite is the case, and bitcoin happens to be super secure with a tremendous amount of hashing power.. which is really a great thing to have during such infancy years and while bitcoin is still suffering multiple spam / ddos attacks (and still remaining robust under such attacks).

O.k.  let me presume that you are a supporter of XT and or classic.  Just for a moment, if we remove their fatal flaws (that is their attempts to make changes to bitcoin governance), and we only focus on their blocksize change proposals, then we see that XT had a schedule of changes (doubling the blocksize limit every couple of years), and classic had an immediate blocksize limit increase.

What are you saying that you want?

Are you only talking about blocksize limit increases, or are you talking about governance?  You seem to be using words to talk about blocksize limit increase, but your insistence on such (seemingly right away) makes it sound as if you have a hidden agenda and what you really want is some kind of change to bitcoin governance.. which is a much more complicated issue.

So clearly state exactly what you are proposing and why the current path of implementing seg wit first is supposedly not sufficient in order to achieve what you want?  Hello goofball.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
Governance and blocksize issues are connected.

If we are stuck today with 1Mb it's because Back, Maxwell and Hill want it like that. Their vision, and agenda, is to make Bitcoin a clearinghouse.

I think this is the dumbest idea ever. I will do everything that I can to make their plan fail in order to protect the value of my bictoins and to protect the value Bitcoin could offer to mankind.

By raising the blocksize limit right now with Classic, we would let Bitcoin breath and quietly growth, and we would get rid of those toxic people.

It's not a problem if people choose to stay with Core for now though. What is important is the choice to hard fork our way out of the power of Back/Maxwell/Hill exists. And the more economic reality will hit the face of small blockists with rising fees, disgruntled users and altcoin market cap exploding, the less the support for Core there will be.

Until the day where the HF will happen because bitcoiners will see the light and stopped being fooled by Blockstream. Meanwhile I will be there all along to explain how dumd Back and Maxwell are so their support start to crumble sooner rather than later.


In other words, even though you have been throwing out the ongoing and repeated rhetoric about problem with the blocksize limit, etc etc etc., your main and real concern is governance.

I don't see what purpose is served by conflating those two issues except to confuse a large number of people who begin to believe that there is some kind of technical problem with bitcoin, and really what you and some others are asserting is that you do not like the governance system of bitcoin. 

Certainly, it is not easy to change governance issues, and the problem is more complicated.

i personally get the sense that a large number of purported big blockers are also distracted by these various governance questions and attempting to suggest (while getting very emotional about the issue) that for some reason governance is broken because they cannot get their proposed block size increase to go through.

It's all just bullshit and a fabricated issue.

In order to have security and certainty, changes to the protocol should be difficult to achieve.. and it is very misguided to suggest that any of these folks are in charge of anything (Back, Maxwell or other core supporters) merely because they are stating opposition to quick and nearly uncontemplated changes that have not been tested and have not allowed seg wit to go through first.  You know seg wit is a very big deal, and it is going to address a lot of issues in bitcoin, while at the same time, there is going to be a necessary adjustment and adaptation period.. and the fact that  many of the core developers are committed to entertaining and outlining proposals for further changes within a few months of the implementation of seg wit should demonstrate that they are seriously considering ways to advance bitcoin in terms of scaling to likely increased demand.

legendary
Activity: 994
Merit: 1035
mainly agree. it's a kind of worst case scenario. i won't rule out in my planing, hence why i diversified my crypto holdings over the last 6 month. still 70% bitcoin though.

Nothing wrong with diversifying you investments. Many Eth investors have turned a nice profit from their pump campaign. It will be interesting to see what happens when the pump stops or , Vitalik runs out of money and needs to start dumping his large stake in Eth to pay the bills of the operation(soon!), MSFT starts promoting their own ethereum fork , or a Turing complete sidechain is added to bitcoin. Nothing is wrong with speculating however as long as the risks are accurately disclosed and discussed.
8up
hero member
Activity: 618
Merit: 500
assuming there are 5 million active bitcoiner of which 1 million decide to sell a small medium or big part (this doesn't matter in this case).

these 1 million people (in a market exodus) will meet with a constant demand of transactions (>1MB/block). in fact this will be a classic bankrun scenario (extremely congested network) - be aware: this will not be for very long (hence i wrote exponential price rise - i better would have added a subsequent collapse in fee prices) but a time periode of 1/2 day up to 4 days, when transacting is only possible by bidding ones transactions fee up and up and up...

have you traded on mt.gox while the market crashed? have you tried to get out your funds of mt.gox when it collapsed. it will feel this way for many more users than @ mt. gox. this will by no means be the end of bitcoin. but the end of the domination of bitcoin. and maybe this is what is best for the ecosystem. maybe another crypto takes the torch from bitcoin there on.

This scenario is more likely with alts, but an unlikely hypothetical all currencies have. It ignores the fact that markets are efficient and those on the edge of divesting will already have their coins loaded in an exchange in anticipation so there will be no bitcoin tx occurring for a majority during this "bank run" It will go from exchange token to offline exchange token tx to alt or fiat to alt tx or fiat tx without ever hitting the blockchain.

The mtgox scenario is completely different because users trust remained in bitcoin but not the exchange itself. In your scenario users trust would be in the exchange but not the currency and exchanges don't care if you sell your BTC for an alt or the other way around, they just want tx volume.

mainly agree. it's a kind of worst case scenario. i won't rule out in my planing, hence why i diversified my crypto holdings over the last 6 month. still 70% bitcoin though.
legendary
Activity: 994
Merit: 1035
assuming there are 5 million active bitcoiner of which 1 million decide to sell a small medium or big part (this doesn't matter in this case).

these 1 million people (in a market exodus) will meet with a constant demand of transactions (>1MB/block). in fact this will be a classic bankrun scenario (extremely congested network) - be aware: this will not be for very long (hence i wrote exponential price rise - i better would have added a subsequent collapse in fee prices) but a time periode of 1/2 day up to 4 days, when transacting is only possible by bidding ones transactions fee up and up and up...

have you traded on mt.gox while the market crashed? have you tried to get out your funds of mt.gox when it collapsed. it will feel this way for many more users than @ mt. gox. this will by no means be the end of bitcoin. but the end of the domination of bitcoin. and maybe this is what is best for the ecosystem. maybe another crypto takes the torch from bitcoin there on.

This scenario is more likely with alts, but an unlikely hypothetical all currencies have. It ignores the fact that markets are efficient and those on the edge of divesting will already have their coins loaded in an exchange in anticipation so there will be no bitcoin tx occurring for a majority during this "bank run" It will go from exchange token to offline exchange token tx to alt or fiat to alt tx or fiat tx without ever hitting the blockchain.

The mtgox scenario is completely different because users trust remained in bitcoin but not the exchange itself. In your scenario users trust would be in the exchange but not the currency and exchanges don't care if you sell your BTC for an alt or the other way around, they just want tx volume.
Jump to: