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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19243. (Read 26608075 times)

legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
China is leading this rally because they think this roundtable agreement means we have consensus. That is far from certain. I'm thinking the main sticking point with Core will be/is:

1. getting boxed into a time frame, even an extraordinarily accommodating one.
2. no pledge to stick with Core even if they renege.

Bigblockers seem to all be smart enough to know that this is Core's deal to blow. We'll take the deal. But if Core Doesn't take it too even though they basically won,  then we go to war and it will be Core against the world. Everyone will know who the bad guys are. Smallblockers will lose.

I kinda hope they don't take it.  This was a last ditch effort on the part of miners to keep Core in the loop for the sake of market stability.  I care less about market stability than an end to the Divine Right of Kings.  

You got nowhere to go, Smallblockers. Take the deal or we will bury you.



All right, that's more like it. Welcome back asshole. How much do they pay you to hijack your account for the evening?

You crack me up, schmadzi. 1MB4EVA is dead. Killed by Adam Back of all people.  What's the weather like down there under the bus?  Now let's see how Maxwell and the other Prima Donna's like getting pushed around by the help.



hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
Warning: Confrmed Gavinista
^So much evil in the heart of one man. How? Cry

Fat people have enlarged hearts.

Interesting.
How do they have so much darkness in their souls tho?

Well, the idea that the fat person is fat because he/she is a fat lazy bastard is foreign to the fat person. So to make sense of the fact that he/she is in fact fat he/she starts blaming the world.

* I am not referring to the fat person as he/she of PC reasons. It's just very hard to tell sometimes.

I find that too much jaegermeister further dulls my ability to make the distinction, often with hilarious results...
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
Warning: Confrmed Gavinista
This hard-fork is expected to include features which are currently being discussed within technical communities, including an increase in the non-witness data to be around 2 MB, with the total size no more than 4 MB, and will only be adopted with broad support across the entire Bitcoin community.

    SegWit is expected to be released in April 2016.
    The code for the hard-fork will therefore be available by July 2016.
    If there is strong community support, the hard-fork activation will likely happen around July 2017.

So if someone started a purely classic/xt pool and got more than 5% hashing power...

Exactly. If someone ran a purely classic/xt pool and got more than 5% hashing power they should be able to single-handedly prevent any future hard fork of the currently existing bitcoin consensus protocol.

Why do you think there has been no changes to TCP/IP in the last 20 years? Why do you think IPV6 still has less than 1% implementation?

Changes to consensus protocol are not easy, nor should they be.

Nah, Peter Todd has already thought of that. 0.12+ will probably start blacklisting any non-segwit nodes (initially for bootstrapping reasons, but no reason why it cant use it as a banning criteria).
No, it doesn't matter what level of 'consensus' they have, as long as >51% mine on their fork, 95% of the non mining nodes can go to hell.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz
China is leading this rally because they think this roundtable agreement means we have consensus. That is far from certain. I'm thinking the main sticking point with Core will be/is:

1. getting boxed into a time frame, even an extraordinarily accommodating one.
2. no pledge to stick with Core even if they renege.

Bigblockers seem to all be smart enough to know that this is Core's deal to blow. We'll take the deal. But if Core Doesn't take it too even though they basically won,  then we go to war and it will be Core against the world. Everyone will know who the bad guys are. Smallblockers will lose.

I kinda hope they don't take it.  This was a last ditch effort on the part of miners to keep Core in the loop for the sake of market stability.  I care less about market stability than an end to the Divine Right of Kings.  

You got nowhere to go, Smallblockers. Take the deal or we will bury you.



All right, that's more like it. Welcome back asshole. How much do they pay you to hijack your account for the evening?
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz
Shmadz, BJA: to comment on double spend risks. You both seem to have missed some details.

Yeah, but China has ~75% hashpower, not 50%.  winning three bets in a row with 75% odds is a 42% chance, a heluva lot higher than 6.25%

If you have 75% of the hashrate, your success rate with double-spends is 100%, since you are guaranteed to be building the longest chain. Sure, 25% of the blocks will not be built by you, but you have the power to discard those from the blockchain. I'd guess a double-spend in this kind of scenario would probably be best achieved by willingly orphaning the blocks containing the tx  you want to re-spend. So the situation, if you assume Chinese miners are all in collusion, is actually worse than BJA is saying.

OTOH, honest miners aren't the only protection against double spends. simple race attacks can be detected by any sufficiently connected node. That won't help against dishonest miners, but the kind of attack a majoroty miner could pull off seems pretty problematic in terms of financial gains. The attack would be detected too quickly for the miner to exchange their BTC for other assets and take delivery of said assets, so any profits would be counted in BTC. And what do yout think happens to the BTC price if a majority miner goes rogue?


Chinese miners are among the bitcoin businesses who have the most to fear from a 51% attack. All their income is denominated in BTC.

But if the chinese government turns hostile and starts telling them what to do it could turn ugly quick.

I am very curious if any of them have an official political minder from the party on their payroll. If so, then it could be very difficult to avoid taking part in an attack.

Hmmmm, there was a good interview with a guy who had been talking with Chinese miners, and mentioned that the Chinese miners are running into a diminishing returns problem where if they control too much of the market, when they add hash power they are competing against themselves.

David Johnston, it's in the first 15 minutes. https://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/the-crypto-show-with-dapps-david-johnston-and-the-breaking-live-fbi-siege-in-burns-oregon

Sure, but they can't form a cartel, 'cause then someone else will just whoop their asses. In this way Bitcoin is pure, although brutal.
yeah, I'm not so sure, they could sorta be a cartel, I guess, but the real problem is that if they are ever perceived as doing something wrong like a51% attack, the very asset they are mining will lose value. It's all about incentives, that's the only thing that works. And if you ask me if I trust USG vs heavily incentivized Chinese? I'd go with the Chinese, every time.

The more interesting part is the ongoing infiltration attack from Billy Joe Bullshit...

Hey Billy,  
Quote
i usually don't respond to reficulous attacks
oh yeah? Since when?
You used to be one of the biggest badass swinging dicks in this thread. I guess that hubris is one thing they don't teach at shill school.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 3066
Merit: 1188

Bitcoin now crossing the boundary into the fabled Gox Resistance Field GORF.

3rd attempt at penetration.


legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women

Scmadz


Yeah, not even close.

Hey Billy, why don't you tell us about your job and where you live, if it won't take you too much time to search the back history of the account you bought?

You don't even know if you're a big blocker, or a small blocker, do you?

I'm a firefighter who lives in the swamp. I put dollar bills in your mom's G string.

How you like them Big Blocks?
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
China is leading this rally because they think this roundtable agreement means we have consensus. That is far from certain. I'm thinking the main sticking point with Core will be/is:

1. getting boxed into a time frame, even an extraordinarily accommodating one.
2. no pledge to stick with Core even if they renege.

Bigblockers seem to all be smart enough to know that this is Core's deal to blow. We'll take the deal. But if Core Doesn't take it too even though they basically won,  then we go to war and it will be Core against the world. Everyone will know who the bad guys are. Smallblockers will lose.

I kinda hope they don't take it.  This was a last ditch effort on the part of miners to keep Core in the loop for the sake of market stability.  I care less about market stability than an end to the Divine Right of Kings.  

You got nowhere to go, Smallblockers. Take the deal or we will bury you.

legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 1014
Make Bitcoin glow with ENIAC
Shmadz, BJA: to comment on double spend risks. You both seem to have missed some details.

Yeah, but China has ~75% hashpower, not 50%.  winning three bets in a row with 75% odds is a 42% chance, a heluva lot higher than 6.25%

If you have 75% of the hashrate, your success rate with double-spends is 100%, since you are guaranteed to be building the longest chain. Sure, 25% of the blocks will not be built by you, but you have the power to discard those from the blockchain. I'd guess a double-spend in this kind of scenario would probably be best achieved by willingly orphaning the blocks containing the tx  you want to re-spend. So the situation, if you assume Chinese miners are all in collusion, is actually worse than BJA is saying.

OTOH, honest miners aren't the only protection against double spends. simple race attacks can be detected by any sufficiently connected node. That won't help against dishonest miners, but the kind of attack a majoroty miner could pull off seems pretty problematic in terms of financial gains. The attack would be detected too quickly for the miner to exchange their BTC for other assets and take delivery of said assets, so any profits would be counted in BTC. And what do yout think happens to the BTC price if a majority miner goes rogue?


Chinese miners are among the bitcoin businesses who have the most to fear from a 51% attack. All their income is denominated in BTC.

But if the chinese government turns hostile and starts telling them what to do it could turn ugly quick.

I am very curious if any of them have an official political minder from the party on their payroll. If so, then it could be very difficult to avoid taking part in an attack.

Hmmmm, there was a good interview with a guy who had been talking with Chinese miners, and mentioned that the Chinese miners are running into a diminishing returns problem where if they control too much of the market, when they add hash power they are competing against themselves.

David Johnston, it's in the first 15 minutes. https://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/the-crypto-show-with-dapps-david-johnston-and-the-breaking-live-fbi-siege-in-burns-oregon

Sure, but they can't form a cartel, 'cause then someone else will just whoop their asses. In this way Bitcoin is pure, although brutal.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz

Scmadz


Yeah, not even close.

Hey Billy, why don't you tell us about your job and where you live, if it won't take you too much time to search the back history of the account you bought?

You don't even know if you're a big blocker, or a small blocker, do you?
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz

Scmadz


Yeah, not even close.

Hey Billy, why don't you tell us about your job and where you live, if it won't take you too much time to search the back history of the account you bought?
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz
Shmadz, BJA: to comment on double spend risks. You both seem to have missed some details.

Yeah, but China has ~75% hashpower, not 50%.  winning three bets in a row with 75% odds is a 42% chance, a heluva lot higher than 6.25%

If you have 75% of the hashrate, your success rate with double-spends is 100%, since you are guaranteed to be building the longest chain. Sure, 25% of the blocks will not be built by you, but you have the power to discard those from the blockchain. I'd guess a double-spend in this kind of scenario would probably be best achieved by willingly orphaning the blocks containing the tx  you want to re-spend. So the situation, if you assume Chinese miners are all in collusion, is actually worse than BJA is saying.

OTOH, honest miners aren't the only protection against double spends. simple race attacks can be detected by any sufficiently connected node. That won't help against dishonest miners, but the kind of attack a majoroty miner could pull off seems pretty problematic in terms of financial gains. The attack would be detected too quickly for the miner to exchange their BTC for other assets and take delivery of said assets, so any profits would be counted in BTC. And what do yout think happens to the BTC price if a majority miner goes rogue?


Chinese miners are among the bitcoin businesses who have the most to fear from a 51% attack. All their income is denominated in BTC.

But if the chinese government turns hostile and starts telling them what to do it could turn ugly quick.

I am very curious if any of them have an official political minder from the party on their payroll. If so, then it could be very difficult to avoid taking part in an attack.

Hmmmm, there was a good interview with a guy who had been talking with Chinese miners, and mentioned that the Chinese miners are running into a diminishing returns problem where if they control too much of the market, when they add hash power they are competing against themselves.

David Johnston, it's in the first 15 minutes. https://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/the-crypto-show-with-dapps-david-johnston-and-the-breaking-live-fbi-siege-in-burns-oregon
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
Shmadz, BJA: to comment on double spend risks. You both seem to have missed some details.

Yeah, but China has ~75% hashpower, not 50%.  winning three bets in a row with 75% odds is a 42% chance, a heluva lot higher than 6.25%

If you have 75% of the hashrate, your success rate with double-spends is 100%, since you are guaranteed to be building the longest chain. Sure, 25% of the blocks will not be built by you, but you have the power to discard those from the blockchain. I'd guess a double-spend in this kind of scenario would probably be best achieved by willingly orphaning the blocks containing the tx  you want to re-spend. So the situation, if you assume Chinese miners are all in collusion, is actually worse than BJA is saying.

OTOH, honest miners aren't the only protection against double spends. simple race attacks can be detected by any sufficiently connected node. That won't help against dishonest miners, but the kind of attack a majority miner could pull off seems pretty problematic in terms of financial gains. The attack would be detected too quickly for the miner to exchange their BTC for other assets and take delivery of said assets, so any profits would be counted in BTC. And what do yout think happens to the BTC price if a majority miner goes rogue?


I'm not suggesting miners are or could be or want to collude. It's in their best interest not to do that unless...they are coerced by the government, Communist Party or central bank.  My concern is that 75% hashpower in the same POLITICAL jurisdiction (not where most people live) threatens censorship resistance.
Nothing anyone has said changes that.

I know the U.S. has suppressed voices of dissent, but in modern times we've had nothing like the Tienanmen Square Massacre. There are levels of Statist evil. Still, I don't want to defend myself or my country, both of whom merit legitimate criticism because it changes the subject.
The issue, no matter how badly everyone wants to ignore it is the Bitcoin is centralized now, not in a way we predicted or worried about, but centralized all the same.  

If we can at least agree on that, we can talk about what to do about it, but ignoring it, changing the subject, making personal attacks is not constructive. This is a real problem.




Scmadz seems to think I'm an agent or something, but i usually don't respond to reficulous attacks. This one has been repeated many times, so no Dude. It's still me.  

Keep creating bigger blocks 16MB make things less centralized right?

see, that's exactly what I mean about changing the subject.  It means you don't have an answer.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz
Shmadz, BJA: to comment on double spend risks. You both seem to have missed some details.

Yeah, but China has ~75% hashpower, not 50%.  winning three bets in a row with 75% odds is a 42% chance, a heluva lot higher than 6.25%

If you have 75% of the hashrate, your success rate with double-spends is 100%, since you are guaranteed to be building the longest chain. Sure, 25% of the blocks will not be built by you, but you have the power to discard those from the blockchain. I'd guess a double-spend in this kind of scenario would probably be best achieved by willingly orphaning the blocks containing the tx  you want to re-spend. So the situation, if you assume Chinese miners are all in collusion, is actually worse than BJA is saying.

OTOH, honest miners aren't the only protection against double spends. simple race attacks can be detected by any sufficiently connected node. That won't help against dishonest miners, but the kind of attack a majority miner could pull off seems pretty problematic in terms of financial gains. The attack would be detected too quickly for the miner to exchange their BTC for other assets and take delivery of said assets, so any profits would be counted in BTC. And what do yout think happens to the BTC price if a majority miner goes rogue?


Ahhh, thank you, so nice to talk to a real account (I hope).

Yes, of course, you're totally bang on with your assessment. If there were a serious attack like this I suspect there might be a fork, maybe... Let's say China double spends, um I guess on bitstamp? So now bitstamp is on the short end and presumably they lost money.

Wouldn't be the first time. Probably not the last. But, you could argue that we should roll back and start you mine the original chain (this is similar to the fork in 2013 except the btcguild won't be able to switch back and regain consensus on the longest chain.)

It would be contentious, but if the offending double spend was egregious enough it could be deemed invalid and all clients that agree that it's invalid would continue creating new blocks from that point on. (Very similar to how a proposed hard fork might turn out, if it does not have sufficient consensus)

Anyhow, any shenanigans or wrong doing on the blockchain would likely such a negative effect on the value of the blockchain tokens as to make such an attack unprofitable and undesirable.

If you want to perform such an attack regardless of cost, and with unlimited budget, I believe it has already been proven that the Byzantine general's problem is unsolvable, (lacking sufficient incentives)

It's likely that the incentive structure is the only thing that truly protects the blockchain.
legendary
Activity: 2833
Merit: 1851
In order to dump coins one must have coins
Shmadz, BJA: to comment on double spend risks. You both seem to have missed some details.

Yeah, but China has ~75% hashpower, not 50%.  winning three bets in a row with 75% odds is a 42% chance, a heluva lot higher than 6.25%

If you have 75% of the hashrate, your success rate with double-spends is 100%, since you are guaranteed to be building the longest chain. Sure, 25% of the blocks will not be built by you, but you have the power to discard those from the blockchain. I'd guess a double-spend in this kind of scenario would probably be best achieved by willingly orphaning the blocks containing the tx  you want to re-spend. So the situation, if you assume Chinese miners are all in collusion, is actually worse than BJA is saying.

OTOH, honest miners aren't the only protection against double spends. simple race attacks can be detected by any sufficiently connected node. That won't help against dishonest miners, but the kind of attack a majority miner could pull off seems pretty problematic in terms of financial gains. The attack would be detected too quickly for the miner to exchange their BTC for other assets and take delivery of said assets, so any profits would be counted in BTC. And what do yout think happens to the BTC price if a majority miner goes rogue?


I'm not suggesting miners are or could be or want to collude. It's in their best interest not to do that unless...they are coerced by the government, Communist Party or central bank.  My concern is that 75% hashpower in the same POLITICAL jurisdiction (not where most people live) threatens censorship resistance.
Nothing anyone has said changes that.

I know the U.S. has suppressed voices of dissent, but in modern times we've had nothing like the Tienanmen Square Massacre. There are levels of Statist evil. Still, I don't want to defend myself or my country, both of whom merit legitimate criticism because it changes the subject.
The issue, no matter how badly everyone wants to ignore it is the Bitcoin is centralized now, not in a way we predicted or worried about, but centralized all the same.  

If we can at least agree on that, we can talk about what to do about it, but ignoring it, changing the subject, making personal attacks is not constructive. This is a real problem.




Scmadz seems to think I'm an agent or something, but i usually don't respond to reficulous attacks. This one has been repeated many times, so no Dude. It's still me.  

Keep creating bigger blocks 16MB make things less centralized right?
legendary
Activity: 2833
Merit: 1851
In order to dump coins one must have coins
No many coins for sale left on finex. If China breaks 3000 this could turn in a firework
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
Shmadz, BJA: to comment on double spend risks. You both seem to have missed some details.

Yeah, but China has ~75% hashpower, not 50%.  winning three bets in a row with 75% odds is a 42% chance, a heluva lot higher than 6.25%

If you have 75% of the hashrate, your success rate with double-spends is 100%, since you are guaranteed to be building the longest chain. Sure, 25% of the blocks will not be built by you, but you have the power to discard those from the blockchain. I'd guess a double-spend in this kind of scenario would probably be best achieved by willingly orphaning the blocks containing the tx  you want to re-spend. So the situation, if you assume Chinese miners are all in collusion, is actually worse than BJA is saying.

OTOH, honest miners aren't the only protection against double spends. simple race attacks can be detected by any sufficiently connected node. That won't help against dishonest miners, but the kind of attack a majority miner could pull off seems pretty problematic in terms of financial gains. The attack would be detected too quickly for the miner to exchange their BTC for other assets and take delivery of said assets, so any profits would be counted in BTC. And what do yout think happens to the BTC price if a majority miner goes rogue?


I'm not suggesting miners are or could be or want to collude. It's in their best interest not to do that unless...they are coerced by the government, Communist Party or central bank.  My concern is that 75% hashpower in the same POLITICAL jurisdiction (not where most people live) threatens censorship resistance.
Nothing anyone has said changes that.

I know the U.S. has suppressed voices of dissent, but in modern times we've had nothing like the Tienanmen Square Massacre. There are levels of Statist evil. Still, I don't want to defend myself or my country, both of whom merit legitimate criticism because it changes the subject.
The issue, no matter how badly everyone wants to ignore it is the Bitcoin is centralized now, not in a way we predicted or worried about, but centralized all the same.  I would have the same objection if mining was concentrated here, but probably not as strongly. Mining cannot be concentrated in ANY one political boundary without compromising censorship resistance.

If we can at least agree on that, we can talk about what to do about it, but ignoring it, changing the subject, making personal attacks is not constructive. This is a real problem.




Scmadz seems to think I'm an agent or something, but i usually don't respond to ridiculous attacks. This one has been repeated many times, so no Dude. It's still me.  
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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