Here are some more FACTS for you:
After I made my last post I sent transaction to myself, confirmed no problems AS ALWAYS. About 4 min in-fact, you beauty. https://blockchain.info/tx-index/b907009f9ef1e20d9d8d983e2c72186230be91ccfaf742e68caa1b95eb675af8
Hearn, Gavin et al also confirmed as FUD spreading propagandists.
Block size increase is not needed now, when it will be needed it will be increased, the core roadmap is the best plan going forward.
Everything else is based on a FUD manufactured crisis.
After I made my last post I sent transaction to myself, confirmed no problems AS ALWAYS. About 4 min in-fact, you beauty. https://blockchain.info/tx-index/b907009f9ef1e20d9d8d983e2c72186230be91ccfaf742e68caa1b95eb675af8
Hearn, Gavin et al also confirmed as FUD spreading propagandists.
Block size increase is not needed now, when it will be needed it will be increased, the core roadmap is the best plan going forward.
Everything else is based on a FUD manufactured crisis.
In the last month, I've sent around 15 transactions of varying sizes from between about .045 BTC and 10 BTC, and each time i paid around .0002BTC in transaction fees. Each of my transaction received at least 3 confirmations within about 15 minutes. I cannot recall any delay in receiving the transaction longer than 15 minutes in that set of transactions in the past month.
so yes, I agree, there currently does not seem to be any meaningful problem, and there seem to be several possibly consensus based solutions in the works...
Accordingly, I still have troubles understanding when the blocksize and/or scaling issues are presented as "an emergency."
When the avg. blocktime is 10 minutes how does each of your transactions receive at least 3 confirmations within 15 minutes?
I use the recommended fee in my electrum wallet yet I have had bad luck getting my transactions included in the first block. It oft times takes 3 blocks to get included, I seem to run into those empty blocks on a regular basis.
Perhaps JJG has been extremely lucky.
To get 3 confirmations, you need at least 2 blocks in 15 minutes after sending the transaction, as the first block will only give you one confirmation. Normally, there are 6 blocks an hour on average, but since hash power has been exploding recently, lets assume you got 8 blocks per hour in the past month.
So two blocks came in 15 minutes on average, on a Poisson distribution (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution ). The chance of 2 blocks or more in 15 minutes is 1 - chance of no blocks - chance of 1 block.
Chance of 0 blocks in 15 minutes P(0) = 2^0 * e^(-2) / 0! = e^(-2)
Chance of 1 block in 15 minutes P(1) = 2^1 * e^(-2) / 1! = 2*e^(-2)
So the chance of 2 blocks or more in 15 minutes is 1 - P(0) - P(1) = 1 - 3*e^(-2) = 1- 3*0.135 = 1-0.406 = 0.594
So far, so good. This is for one tx. To have this for 15 tx in a row, this means the chance is 0.594^15 = 0.000404 .
In other words, JJG has been extremely lucky, indeed.
EDIT: I didn't take into account the presence of empty blocks, which will further lower the actual chance (since you will never be included in an empty block, no matter how high a fee you pay).
Maybe I will have to measure more preciselyin the future to see how long it is taking in actuality- rather than a ruff estimate because surely I see the coins within a few minutes ( usually less than 5).
Thereafter the amount of time precisely hasn't been an issue for me because I'm not trying to move the coins a second time, but I will concede that I can imagine some possible transactions in which a person may want to move a second time within a short period and then timing would be more critical.
