Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19574. (Read 26608087 times)

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Whether BTC prices are transitioning back into a bear market is still to be determined, yet I believe the probabilities from the upper $300 price range are greater than not that we are still in a bull market and more likely to have a sustained upturn of 20% rather than a sustained downturn of 20%


Yes, I have disclosed a considerable amount of information regarding my various past BTC positions, but that does not make me lacking in knowledge merely because I have been accumulating BTC, and since about October 2015 I have begun to buy and sell bitcoin (rather than just accumulating BTC), which to date, since October has brought down my average price per BTC from $502 to about $478.. and in the meantime my BTC portfolio is better positioned with cash on both sides and a larger quantity of BTC and more dollars in my BTC trading accounts. 

I am not claiming to be any kind of expert regarding trading or knowing the price direction, but I am attempting to do what i think is best for my own position in light of the totality of my various investments, including but not limited to BTC investments. 

I don't recall disclosing exactly my quantity of coins, but I acquired more than 2/3 of my coins during 2014, and I accumulated around 5% more coins since I started trading in October.. while increasing my cash reserves.. but overall the quantity of my trades still remains fairly limited amount of my total BTC portfolio, with less than 10% of my BTC at stake at any point in time, yet I anticipate increasing the percentage of BTC that I will put into play with the passage of time, and likely as I continue to bring down my average price per BTC in my portfolio.   
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Again: once, while discussing future user base growth, Satoshi considered 20% per year (doubling every 4 years) a "crazy" rate of growth.  That would be consistent with his chosen block reward schedule (halving every four years).  With a "non-crazy" growth rate of less than 20%/year, the USD value of the block reward would have deceased with time, forcing the system to transition gradually to fees.

Surely he was too smart to risk actual predictions, but on the other hand he cannot have expected the price to rise by a factor of 10 every year for 5 years.  So the USD value of the block reward too increased by almost he same factor, instead of decreasing as he may have expected.

The price rose so fast because of speculative investment and trading, fueled by predictions that it would one day replace VISA.  That surely is a use for bitcoin that he did not expect.  If there is something that the world did not need in 2009, and will never need, is another penny stock.  He would not have bothered creating bitcoin, if he knew that it would turn into that.

Satoshi's basic mistake was to make the currency non-inflationary.

I wrote that too before: it became a pyramid investment scheme and a tool for crime.  

TL;DR? Bullish?

If he did not expect that to be part of the behavior, then he was completely stupid about markets, and I rather doubt that.

Once the possibility that it can someday replace VISA exists (or alternately function alongside VISA at a similar scale), people will speculatively trade on that possibility. Markets do not function in a manner where the value is in any way proportionate with number of current users. To the extent that value is proportionate with number of users at all, the basis for that proportionality is expected future users, a quantity that will certainly be highly volatile as current developments influence market consensus expectations of future outcomes.

How people on a trading thread could be so completely clueless about that is a mystery to me.

Anyway, block rewards will not necessarily increase nor decrease in USD value, it just depends on future market conditions. Either is possible. I certainly expect that this upcoming halving will see a decrease in USD value, but I can't be sure of that of course. As for future ones, nobody has any clue, whether they claim to or not.

Regarding signatures, I agree with JorgeStolfi that the simple measure of just limiting transactions to some reasonable size (at least temporarily) is easy and sufficient.

EDIT: He seems not clueless about markets, so we can rule out that he didn't expect and accept that speculation would occur

Some of us remember 8 bit CPUs running at 4Mhz with 1k of RAM and software stored on audio cassettes. Hard drives were just something you read about. The first one I actually had (nearly 10 years later) was 40MB

Once it gets bootstrapped, there are so many applications if you could effortlessly pay a few cents to a website as easily as dropping coins in a vending machine.

Eventually at most only 21 million coins for 6.8 billion people in the world if it really gets huge.

In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes

If he did not expect that to be part of the behavior, then he was completely stupid about markets, and I rather doubt that.

Once the possibility that it can someday replace VISA exists (or alternately function alongside VISA at a similar scale), people will speculatively trade on that possibility.

Commerce on the Internet has come to rely almost exclusively on financial institutions serving as trusted third parties to process electronic payments. While the system works well enough for most transactions

Anyway, block rewards will not necessarily increase nor decrease in USD value, it just depends on future market conditions. Either is possible.

Everyone can have a p2p client that deals with 10kb/sec, has 100 mb storage requirements, needs 1 small cpu and 256mb ram. As you go up and up in hw requirements, cost goes up, "volunteers" go down - even if userbase goes up. As you hit datacenter level requirements the number of "volunteers" starts dropping significantly because costs start running in the 5 digit, then 6 digit category and eventually you'll be paying millions.

i think it was well known that Oppenheimer was a psychopath that likely didn't have a conscience ... yet a remarkable mind never-the-less.

A tool has been created. What the tool enables, where that leads, and how, is up for history to decide. I doubt Satoshi was ignorant of this fact when he released it into the wild.

I'm sure his conscience will have an easier go of it than Oppenheimer's.

Again: once, while discussing future user base growth, Satoshi considered 20% per year (doubling every 4 years) a "crazy" rate of growth.  That would be consistent with his chosen block reward schedule (halving every four years).  With a "non-crazy" growth rate of less than 20%/year, the USD value of the block reward would have deceased with time, forcing the system to transition gradually to fees.

Surely he was too smart to risk actual predictions, but on the other hand he cannot have expected the price to rise by a factor of 10 every year for 5 years.  So the USD value of the block reward too increased by almost he same factor, instead of decreasing as he may have expected.

The price rose so fast because of speculative investment and trading, fueled by predictions that it would one day replace VISA.  That surely is a use for bitcoin that he did not expect.  If there is something that the world did not need in 2009, and will never need, is another penny stock.  He would not have bothered creating bitcoin, if he knew that it would turn into that.

A rational market price for something that is expected to increase in value will already reflect the present value of the expected future increases.  In your head, you do a probability estimate balancing the odds that it keeps increasing.

... This week in Stolfi's utopia.

In the grand experiment of Bitcoin, one involving a large number of human participants and for a variety of reasons... expecting only the right people being involved for the right reasons is ridiculous.

A tool has been created. What the tool enables, where that leads, and how, is up for history to decide. I doubt Satoshi was ignorant of this fact when he released it into the wild.

Most of that is Greek to me. How would a sharp Core supporter respond?