Explanation
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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1975. (Read 26720633 times)
June 28, 2023, 10:01:21 PM
June 28, 2023, 09:01:18 PM
June 28, 2023, 09:00:08 PM
As an aside, do you think it's possible to manipulate the share price of a 12 billion dollars company, using trading only ? No FUD, no "activist investor" writing "research papers", the news about the company are business as usual/as you would expect, yet some people argue the price is kept down, in particular by the biggest shareholder (the founding family).
I'm talking about the company I work at, I have a sizeable amount of shares and the price is indeed a bit low for my tastes. Analysts consistently say it should be about 20% higher, but that doesn't happen.
The founding family is regularly buying millions of shares, increasing their holdings bit by bit. Along with employees like me they already hold a majority of voting rights, but not yet a majority of shares, although it's getting close (employees have more than 20%).
So how would they keep the price low, while at the same time buying shares ? I don't get it.
The company is a member of the French CAC40 so it's not like nobody is watching, on the contrary...
I'm talking about the company I work at, I have a sizeable amount of shares and the price is indeed a bit low for my tastes. Analysts consistently say it should be about 20% higher, but that doesn't happen.
The founding family is regularly buying millions of shares, increasing their holdings bit by bit. Along with employees like me they already hold a majority of voting rights, but not yet a majority of shares, although it's getting close (employees have more than 20%).
So how would they keep the price low, while at the same time buying shares ? I don't get it.
The company is a member of the French CAC40 so it's not like nobody is watching, on the contrary...
June 28, 2023, 08:40:22 PM
That's a very cornie expression....
1)
Trading rule based on S2F model. Buy BTC 6 months before halving and sell 18 month after halving. Outperforms BTC buy&hold in both return and risk....
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1650778260442062848
2)
Quant Investing 101
https://planbtc.com/20220807QuantInvesting101.pdf
But who knows how long we can rely on the previous cycle performance. You never know if next time will be different ....
My rule 0 is someone has a better model than you unless this is something you do full-time and their gain will likely be your loss.Trading rule based on S2F model. Buy BTC 6 months before halving and sell 18 month after halving. Outperforms BTC buy&hold in both return and risk....
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1650778260442062848
2)
Quant Investing 101
https://planbtc.com/20220807QuantInvesting101.pdf
But who knows how long we can rely on the previous cycle performance. You never know if next time will be different ....
True. Cannot argue with that. One could add that it's not only about the better model but also about the deeper pockets.
I have issues with these various theories about "manipulation," and sure bigger players might be able to play their hands better, and they might even have some abilities to get access to insider information (or perhaps even see how the markets might move with their own deployment of capital); however, most people still have to figure out their own strategies, including figuring out how much they are even going to enter into the game.
And, yeah, maybe we (the three of us) are saying similar things, but still I get senses of futility coming out of both of you (Gachapin and Richy_T).. or at least you seem to be somewhat heavily subscribing to ideas that the cards are stacked against the little guy... and maybe that is somewhat true, but not so much with bitcoin. Bitcoin is and has been an investment in which the little guy (retail) have been able to front run the BIGGER players, and since we are still early (believe it or not), the little guy (retail) can still front run the BIGGER players.. even if s/he is a newbie no coiner or a low coiner - who might be in the earlier stages of building the size of his/her bitcoin stash.
So who cares whatever the supposed manipulators are doing and their various strategies, the little guy (retail) can figure out his own situation and attempt to be as aggressive as he feels (believes) that s/he is capable of being in terms of stacking sats without getting reckt.. and the information is already available to him/her.. stack as many sats as you can, and likely in 4-10 years (or maybe a little longer) you will be in a much better place.. so long as you have been mostly focused on accumulating through various buying strategies, such as DCA, buying on dips and lump sum buying, and don't be fucking around with selling as an accumulation strategy, until you are well into profits and until you are largely over invested in bitcoin.. and ONLY you can figure out those various thresholds.. perhaps practicing and studying along the way, and don't get too worked up or worried if their might be some folks (such as BIG players) who you believe that might be doing better than you, when in fact, since you are still early, there are a lot of players, including BIG players who still have little to no clue about the idea of building a bitcoin portfolio and aggressively stacking sats.
I think you are mixing up two things a bit here JJG.
Me and Richy_T were talking about trading not accumulating and hodling. Going in an out the market to maximize profits, opposed to just buy & hold.
Surely you recognize that when it comes to trading the little guy has definitely a disadvantage against bigger players. They have deeper pockets, more sophisticated analysis tools and often inside info (of exchanges and other big players).
So I'm on the same page with you that the best strategy for the little guy is to accumulate as much as possible. Especially since he's able to frontrun institutions that have no possibility yet to accumulate due to regulatory issues.
June 28, 2023, 08:06:02 PM
It took you nearly 5 years? Wow. I thought my recall was slow when it took a day or two to recall an old acquaintance's name. You must have uncovered one helluva trigger!
He was probably in a coma, you know, one of those comas where you forget your past habits and wake up speaking a different language. Happens all the time.
Thanks for reminding me how hostile this place is though. No wonder why all the old users left.
Sucks to be "us"...
Lonely in these here parts.
June 28, 2023, 08:04:51 PM
June 28, 2023, 07:52:46 PM
Oh lookie, we still here. Same price range, different day.
Get used to it guyz....
Get used to it guyz....
Well at least they are consistent.
Fear not tho, we are in a long term accumulation phase...
Days and prices are inconsistent but you said accumulators are heading up, So how long do you think DCA and accumulation really worth.
Because DCA can also wrong in some cases as i was reading thread in trading discussion i am not really sure because its 2 3 weeks back time, the whale accumulator faced a major loss by just adopting the wrong time for the DCA he kept on accumulating during the downfall and after loosing patient He sold most for the assets in a major loss.
Weak point was wrong buying and selling point but at least he kept on holding with the courage to accumulate for around 1 year with massive value.
That's not DCA that's trading.
DCA is buying at regular intervals as a long term investment with spare money, there is no selling involved.
June 28, 2023, 07:04:55 PM
June 28, 2023, 06:45:20 PM
It took you nearly 5 years? Wow. I thought my recall was slow when it took a day or two to recall an old acquaintance's name. You must have uncovered one helluva trigger!
He was probably in a coma, you know, one of those comas where you forget your past habits and wake up speaking a different language. Happens all the time.
Different language? How did you come up with that bullshit? I write English since my first post here.
Thanks for reminding me how hostile this place is though. No wonder why all the old users left.
June 28, 2023, 06:04:50 PM
June 28, 2023, 05:42:55 PM
OT
Indiana Jones and The Dial of Destiny
Meh. Not terrible. Some bits are actually good (the beginning and de-aging stuff) but there are some terrible bits too, some strange decisions and not a very interesting adventure at all in my opinion.
That damn Helena bitch takes over towards the end and is just irritating as fuck. Cocky Mary Sue bollocks.
If Indy had been the one jumping onto the plane from the motorbike (seemed very Uncharted-esque that sequence) with people cheering him on (like in Raiders with the submarine scene) and hearing the theme it would have been SO much better! It could have made the movie!
Bit of a sad ending somewhat but like I said not terrible.
Always thought they left a potential Indiana Jones and The Fate of Atlantis movie on the table.
Crystal Skull and this Archimedes Dial / Battle of Syracuse nonsense are just not on the same level as The Ark of the Covenant and The Holy Grail at all. Atlantis would be surely. Maybe combine that with a short time travel thing so you can quickly see what Atlantis would have looked like in its heydey (if it existed).
Maybe it's my ears but I found some of the dialogue muffled and unclear.
Again, some of the production quality is excellent and some of it is just bad.
Strange experience. I enjoyed The Flash and Fast X more. I shouldn't be saying that about an Indiana Jones movie.
6/10
Indiana Jones and The Dial of Destiny
Meh. Not terrible. Some bits are actually good (the beginning and de-aging stuff) but there are some terrible bits too, some strange decisions and not a very interesting adventure at all in my opinion.
That damn Helena bitch takes over towards the end and is just irritating as fuck. Cocky Mary Sue bollocks.
If Indy had been the one jumping onto the plane from the motorbike (seemed very Uncharted-esque that sequence) with people cheering him on (like in Raiders with the submarine scene) and hearing the theme it would have been SO much better! It could have made the movie!
Bit of a sad ending somewhat but like I said not terrible.
Always thought they left a potential Indiana Jones and The Fate of Atlantis movie on the table.
Crystal Skull and this Archimedes Dial / Battle of Syracuse nonsense are just not on the same level as The Ark of the Covenant and The Holy Grail at all. Atlantis would be surely. Maybe combine that with a short time travel thing so you can quickly see what Atlantis would have looked like in its heydey (if it existed).
Maybe it's my ears but I found some of the dialogue muffled and unclear.
Again, some of the production quality is excellent and some of it is just bad.
Strange experience. I enjoyed The Flash and Fast X more. I shouldn't be saying that about an Indiana Jones movie.
6/10
June 28, 2023, 05:03:25 PM
June 28, 2023, 04:45:10 PM
Oh lookie, we still here. Same price range, different day.
Get used to it guyz....
Well at least they are consistent. Get used to it guyz....
Fear not tho, we are in a long term accumulation phase...
Depends on when you start... if you are just starting, it could take a while... that's why "we" say, get started as soon as possible.
Because DCA can also wrong in some cases as i was reading thread in trading discussion
Yeah.. because they are retarded.
i am not really sure because its 2 3 weeks back time,
There goes memories..
fleeting into the wind.
the whale accumulator faced a major loss by just adopting the wrong time for the DCA he kept on accumulating during the downfall and after loosing patient He sold most for the assets in a major loss.
The thing is that whales (or people/institutions) with already good sized investments into other things (including cash) have options to fuck around with lump sum investing, but if you are a normie, you don't necessarily have lump sums available to you, so you gotta work with what uuu's gots.. not working with what someone else might gots.
Weak point was wrong buying and selling point but at least he kept on holding with the courage to accumulate for around 1 year with massive value.
Yeah, but who cares? what's the punchline? Are you going to sell BTC in order to try to buy back more? unless you been into BTC for a while, selling to buy back more is not smart... and the better strategies have to do with ongoingly buying BTC in order to accumulate more BTC (aka stack more sats).. and start early and stay persistent until you gots ur lil selfie enuff cornz.
There's an apt expression that has to deal with time in the market is more important than timing the market.
Man... I don't think $30k is gunna hold...
Wat a wishfowl widdo fellar uie R.
If you keep saying it, then maybe it will come true... #justsaying.
June 28, 2023, 04:43:57 PM
now that the Blackrock ETF news gets echoed in mainstream media, price begins to dump.... call me shocked 
Saylor also announced Microstrategy buying more, we always dump when that happens.
Be really bullish if we survive this retest of $30,000 and turn it into support. Would set us up nicely for the next leg up.
oh... Saylor... how could I have overlooked that... you are 100% right...
30k was the bottom in '21, it's essential to turn that into support again. But it could well take three months or more...
If I have to describe in one sentence the price action in 2019 and 2020 it would be "The battle for 10K". I'm just curious which will be the new 10K for 2023 and 2024 - 30K, 40K or even 50K? My guess is 40K.
My guess is $29,900 will become the new $9,900.
It'll go sideways for what seems like forever, occasionally teasing > $30k only to get squashed down over again and again.
^^^^^^^^^^^
Hot take: We are here, and my estimate is that we will remain in this range, barting up and down, throughout 2023 and possibly into 2024.
Don't see any reason on the horizon for that to change until closer to halving. There will be a number of 'head fakes' along the way.
The only thing that could really alter this range bound is if Fed rates dropped by at least 2% or more.
Oh lookie, we still here. Same price range, different day.
Get used to it guyz....
Well at least they are consistent.
Fear not tho, we are in a long term accumulation phase...
You must really wuv ur lil selfie, Torque.
You will keep citing how correct and wonderful you are, until all of a sudden you will go silent..
... I know that flick
June 28, 2023, 04:33:25 PM
Man... I don't think $30k is gunna hold...
June 28, 2023, 04:21:51 PM
Oh lookie, we still here. Same price range, different day.
Get used to it guyz....
Get used to it guyz....
Well at least they are consistent.
Fear not tho, we are in a long term accumulation phase...
Days and prices are inconsistent but you said accumulators are heading up, So how long do you think DCA and accumulation really worth.
Because DCA can also wrong in some cases as i was reading thread in trading discussion i am not really sure because its 2 3 weeks back time, the whale accumulator faced a major loss by just adopting the wrong time for the DCA he kept on accumulating during the downfall and after loosing patient He sold most for the assets in a major loss.
Weak point was wrong buying and selling point but at least he kept on holding with the courage to accumulate for around 1 year with massive value.
June 28, 2023, 04:03:28 PM
June 28, 2023, 03:59:40 PM
If I have to describe in one sentence the price action in 2019 and 2020 it would be "The battle for 10K". I'm just curious which will be the new 10K for 2023 and 2024 - 30K, 40K or even 50K? My guess is 40K.
My guess is $29,900 will become the new $9,900.
It'll go sideways for what seems like forever, occasionally teasing > $30k only to get squashed down over again and again.
^^^^^^^^^^^
Hot take: We are here, and my estimate is that we will remain in this range, barting up and down, throughout 2023 and possibly into 2024.
Don't see any reason on the horizon for that to change until closer to halving. There will be a number of 'head fakes' along the way.
The only thing that could really alter this range bound is if Fed rates dropped by at least 2% or more.
Oh lookie, we still here. Same price range, different day.
Get used to it guyz....
Well at least they are consistent.
Fear not tho, we are in a long term accumulation phase...
You must really wuv ur lil selfie, Torque.
You will keep citing how correct and wonderful you are, until all of a sudden you will go silent..
June 28, 2023, 03:52:03 PM
If I have to describe in one sentence the price action in 2019 and 2020 it would be "The battle for 10K". I'm just curious which will be the new 10K for 2023 and 2024 - 30K, 40K or even 50K? My guess is 40K.
My guess is $29,900 will become the new $9,900.
It'll go sideways for what seems like forever, occasionally teasing > $30k only to get squashed down over again and again.
^^^^^^^^^^^
Hot take: We are here, and my estimate is that we will remain in this range, barting up and down, throughout 2023 and possibly into 2024.
Don't see any reason on the horizon for that to change until closer to halving. There will be a number of 'head fakes' along the way.
The only thing that could really alter this range bound is if Fed rates dropped by at least 2% or more.
Oh lookie, we still here. Same price range, different day.
Get used to it guyz....
Well at least they are consistent.
Fear not tho, we are in a long term accumulation phase...
June 28, 2023, 03:03:25 PM
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