Yeah.. you could be right..
At the same time, I am not really worried that you (goldkingcoiner) are not sufficiently/adequately prepared for UP (even while you are seemingly preparing for the possibility of down)...
Some of us have been in this space long enough that it is relatively clear that we have figured out a variety of ways to prepare for both up and down at the same time, no matter how cognitively dissonant that might sound to the gamblers who like to bet bigger than they should (such as 80x.... just using that as a reference).
Since you likely already realize that the lillie fiend market does not always go down on "bad news" merely because a lot of folks (even if the overwhelming majority) are speculating that it will go down.
Good point.
But, I am gambling virtual profits from buying later instead of now. Sure, Bitcoin could go up. I would lose out on a bit of coin. But past history has show that during corrections, FUD has an amplifying effect on the price dip. This is just short term speculation. Worst case scenario, price goes up instead of going down. I stop limit at 1/3rd of the Binance FUD candle. Still not bad. Either way I make more coins from the FUD because the Bitcoin is undervalued by pure speculation (how long does that last?). Thats how I see it, at least...
Almost always it is difficult to really know what is a "fair price" - whether we are talking bitcoin and/or other assets/currencies that we might be evaluating - even if we likely have a lot of theories in regards to which way we believe that the price of BTC versus other assets (currencies) is going to gravitate and/or which way the BTC price pressures might be pushing.
Surely, after some kind of a large BTC price movement, then we might have to reassess and then figure out if we are going to want to (or need to take any actions based on such large price movements). On personal levels for longer term bitcoin HODLers, bitcoin has provided us a lot of very interesting experiences in which we probably would not have been able to have had been part of such great price appreciations in terms of various assets (including assets that are widely-held and open to everyone around the world) - even when accounting for such large corrections that have been happening in BTC over the years and along the way, too.
It seems that any of us who might even be doubting Thomases in regards to bitcoin's future price possibilities, whether that is reaching another ATH or supra $100k or supra $1 million or supra $1 billion, there are still ways to adjust BTC position size in such a way that we have some skin in the game, even if we have doubts, and I am surely with you goldkingcoiner in terms of having a decent amount of confidence that bitcoin is ongoingly undervalued rather than overvalued, even though we do know that if we get large and long held price rises, then it becomes quite a bit more difficult to assert that bitcoin is overvalued (at least in the short term).. not that I am even suggesting that it would be a good idea to newbie no coiners or low coiner to be fucking around with trading BTC in terms of methods to build their stash.. and when they might get to maintenance stages of their BTC journey, then the questions of what to do, where to balance or how to allocate in or out of BTC (referring to proportions not absolutes) likely become different.
By the way, in terms of the recent $1 billion price per BTC in 2038 that was proposed through a Fidelity analyst, it just seems too out of touch.. even accounting for a dollar currency fail.
Many times, I figure that it is better to project forward in terms of today's dollars (even if the dollar might end up crashing and thereby changing evaluations), so the highest of the potentials that I come to in terms of today's dollars is around $50 million per BTC, which is using around a $1 quadrillion addressable market.. and even something like that seems like it could take 40-50 years or longer to play out.. and more likely a couple hundred years, but who knows? For me it does not hurt to look at some of these parameters, and it is also interesting to see some of the regular (or mainstream) scenarios to frequently erroring on the side of overly bullish scenarios, rather than some of the ones that we were seeing, even 3-6 years ago... look at your forum registration date goldkingcoiner.. you are ONLY coming upon your 6th anniversary in August..
and since I like to so much beat up anyone with DCA comparisons.. so let's go with 6 years in order that anyone can think about whether they have been able to beat or at least match the DCA approach at least in terms of percentages.. so where would we be at with $100 per week invested into bitcoin in the past 6 years? We would have invested
a bit more than $31k, and we would have just over 3.25 BTC. Doesn't seem to be a bad return, and I am thinking that front loading could have been DCA.. but the problem of starting in 2017 is NOT to front-load at the top of that particular run that got up to about $19,666 in December of that year.
I am getting close to my 10 year anniversary in bitcoin and even on the forum, but the DCA website does not allow more than 9 years at a time, so
let's start with December 2013 and show that 9 years of buying BTC at $100 per week would have resulted in $47k invested and about 46 BTC.. a bit of an unfair advantage for the one who started earlier, even accounting for starting to invest into BTC starting at the 2013 top. .. hey.. maybe that's why I like to say that my average cost per BTC is around $1k.. it matches up quite well..and also using an average price of $1k per BTC is currently pretty easy to calculate status of profitability.. right? Right now around 26x based on current BTC prices, as I type this post.
Who would ever go 80x, I wonder?
No one
who is anyone would ever do that. Not on purpose, anyhow. I was merely setting forth a hypothetical.
