Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19955. (Read 26608364 times)

legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007

I don't really care how we get to effective ~4MB (should be good for now), as long as the economical retardation of artificial scarcity, i.e purposefully bottlenecking txs, doesn't take hold -- and judging by the (economically surprisingly lucid) reaction of the mining majority of recent months, that's not likely to happen in the foreseeable future.

legendary
Activity: 994
Merit: 1035

Yeah, having been called an idiot/troll/shill by the "1 MB is sacred" crowd for months did spoil my academic detachment, I confess.  

So did you pick a consensus side in matters which have no impact upon you merely out of academic interest or because of a bitter emotional reaction?

So why would the miners give discounts for transactions in the SW format?

Ignoring the miners long term incentives to benefit the ecosystem and assuming short term selfish behavior only, the miners will be incentivized by more tx fees when the capacity more than doubles. When margins are extremely tight these incentives are more than enough to encourage the right behavior.

full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1688
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
member
Activity: 107
Merit: 11
The Moment when you know you are on the right path when bitter bitcoin skeptics strangely take sides in consensus changes when they have no stake in the battle.

"Academic interest in bitcoin only."

Why so many emotional and bitter outbursts instead of cool, collective, or humored observances?

This really says it all. Kind of fun to watch them grasping at straws.
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
The Moment when you know you are on the right path when bitter bitcoin skeptics strangely take sides in consensus changes when they have no stake in the battle.

"Academic interest in bitcoin only."

Why so many emotional and bitter outbursts instead of cool, collective, or humored observances?

Yeah, having been called an idiot/troll/shill by the "1 MB is sacred" crowd for months did spoil my academic detachment, I confess. 
legendary
Activity: 2478
Merit: 1362
This thread becomes silent again. Perfect.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
And even after the clients have upgraded, the use of SW will be optional.  Will there be incentives for the clients to use it?
They could easily add extra priority points for transactions that use sw.
Greg Maxwell aka nullc on reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3vurqp/greg_maxwell_capacity_increases_for_the_bitcoin/cxr73g3
They're given priority by having a much lower effective size; meaning they'll be ranked higher for a given amount of fee paid, and thus mined quicker.

Will they? Miners still have to process and transmit the full data if they are to really validate the transactions that they mine.  The space and bandwidth savings will be realized only by simple clients and nodes who do not need to validate the signatures.  So why would the miners give discounts for transactions in the SW format?

But they should not worry, since the space savings will only occur if the clients start issuing transactions in the new SW format.  Which will not happen right away, if SW is deployed by soft fork.  And even after the clients have upgraded, the use of SW will be optional.  Will there be incentives for the clients to use it?

No, regular transactions get a 75% bump in space.

IIUC, segregated witnesses requires a different signature format (achieved through a scripting hack to avoid hard forks) whereby the signatures are moved out of the tx body and are not included in the tx hash.  That allows the signatures to be sent and stored separately.  Regular transactions will still have to be stored in full in the blocks.  Wallets willnot be issuing SW trasactions until they upgrade, and (since it will be a soft fork) they will not be required to.
legendary
Activity: 994
Merit: 1035
So, all that "concern trolling" about the terrible consequences of large blocks by Adam, Greg, and the rest of the Blockstream/Viacoin crowd was just bullshit, and they kew it. Segregated Witness will allow 4-5 MB blocks "soon"(because they will not wait for consensus, of course, but intend to deploy it in "stealth mode", aka "soft fork ).  And they are all euphoric about it.  

I wonder how the small-blockians who sincerely believed that bullshit are feeling now.  Betrayed and duped? Probably not: like that speaker from 1984, they will swicth in mid-sentence from "blocks larger than 1 MB will kill bitcoin" to "4 MB blocks are wonderful".  From "we need the fee market to support miners and push traffic to off-chain solutions" to "segregated witnesses is essential to let bitcoin to grow without running into saturation".

To be sure, Blockstreamers only now are coming to realize that an increase of the effective block size limit to 4 MB will have the unexpected and unwelcome consequence of increasing the effective block size limit to 4 MB.  So Luke has already proposed to keep the 1 MB limit for the total block size, including the segregated part. And Greg, in his characteristic straightforward and honest manner, has proposed to combine SW with Adam's 2-4-8 block size limit plan, but "scaled for the effect of segregated witnesses" -- which must mean setting the nominal block size limit to 0.5-1-2 MB.

But they should not worry, since the space savings will only occur if the clients start issuing transactions in the new SW format.  Which will not happen right away, if SW is deployed by soft fork.  And even after the clients have upgraded, the use of SW will be optional.  Will there be incentives for the clients to use it?

The Moment when you know you are on the right path when bitter bitcoin skeptics strangely take sides in consensus changes when they have no stake in the battle.

"Academic interest in bitcoin only."

Why so many emotional and bitter outbursts instead of cool, collective, or humored observances?

To those interested in a balanced and holistic way to scale and grow capacity here is a great outline--

http://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2015-December/011865.html

Bitcoin has a bright future indeed.
hero member
Activity: 583
Merit: 500
If we don't break 400 soon, we will see an epic dump.

Save my words


Aaaaaaaand it... broke $400
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1005
If we don't break 400 soon, we will see an epic dump.

Save my words
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 2386
Viva Ut Vivas
So...how do I roll my 401k into a Bitcoin share?
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 576
Merit: 503
I just thought that it was crazy to not take advantage of this when I was posting anyway.

There is a cost. See _my_ sig.

You too.

Luckily, the 700 micros far exceeds the value of any credibility loss I may suffer in your direction. Smiley

Mirth aside, I prefer to maintain the illusion that my comments stand on their own, and do not require jbreher 'credibility points'.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
why no one told me $gbtc closed at 520$  Shocked


That's an amazing price difference between gbtc and regular and real btc, and so far, I have not seen nor read any meaningful explanation regarding why such considerable price difference exists between gbtc and regular and real btc except that people (investors) are so BTC volatility adverse (shy) that they invest in some investment vehicle related to the stock market, gbtc, that they "know" - rather than one that they feel that they do not know, BTC.  h

however, ironically, the ongoing considerable price difference between gbtc and btc seems to create an additional uncertainty regarding the continued price "stability" of gbtc, which to anyone knowledgeable about BTC would rather own real btc rather than the paper imitation shit of gbtc... in spite of apparent arbitrage opportunities.

Possibly because it's highly illiquid? And the only way John Q. Public can buy bitcoin "exposure" while logged in to his Schwab account?

The arbitrage opportunities are shit, due to the lock-in of shares in the BIT.

Thanks for that further information, which helps my thinking and speculation somewhat.

Accordingly, it's all fine and dandy and easy to get into buying GBTC (buy high) at $520, but you probably have to jump through considerable hoops to get out.

I have seen some of those institutional-type investments that pre-require that the investors have to wait a year before they can get out, which is bullshit when we know that we can easily and quickly buy and sell bitcoins directly with few restrictions.   

So, in essence, when investors ("institutional") are currently buying GBTC for $520 (31% inflated prices) and the direct BTC price is $395, that signifies that the long term (1 year into the future) outlook for BTC by those long term investors is at least $540, which is 4% higher than $520.

in other words, a fairly bullish present/future value indicator.

Just to clarify, shares in the BIT, Bitcoin Investment Trust, not GBTC, have a lock in period. Say you trade 500 BTC for a commensurate amount of shares in the trust... you have to wait a year to be able to take a cash payment to divest, or to convert those BIT shares to GBTC to sell them on the pink sheets exchange. 
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
why no one told me $gbtc closed at 520$  Shocked


That's an amazing price difference between gbtc and regular and real btc, and so far, I have not seen nor read any meaningful explanation regarding why such considerable price difference exists between gbtc and regular and real btc except that people (investors) are so BTC volatility adverse (shy) that they invest in some investment vehicle related to the stock market, gbtc, that they "know" - rather than one that they feel that they do not know, BTC.  h

however, ironically, the ongoing considerable price difference between gbtc and btc seems to create an additional uncertainty regarding the continued price "stability" of gbtc, which to anyone knowledgeable about BTC would rather own real btc rather than the paper imitation shit of gbtc... in spite of apparent arbitrage opportunities.

Keep in mind you can hold GBTC in your retirement account.  It is possible to set something up to accomplish the same thing with raw BTC, but it is way more hassle than it is worth unless you have a very large retirement account.


O.k.  maybe I was a bit too confused about the abilities of an investor to get in and out of GBTC because a couple months ago, I had communicated with someone regarding GBTC,and I had the impression that he had more flexibility to get in and out of GBTC, but that may have been a mistaken impression.

I do understand that there can be some differences with retirement accounts and abilities to move funds around between eligible investments within
the accounts. 

The whole GBTC price matter still seems very bullish.
Jump to: