Coin
Explanation
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 20176. (Read 26630536 times)
November 16, 2015, 01:01:18 PM
November 16, 2015, 01:00:13 PM
We get this above 345 and it's ON 
November 16, 2015, 12:57:26 PM
The funny thing is: we've all been focusing on how the halving will affect the price. But what about the hashrate? If the BTC price is still scraping along the bottom, a whole bunch of mines are going to become unprofitable in an instant.
I have seen someone bring this up on Reddit. In theory, what could happen is the block reward drops, a bunch of miners become immediately unprofitable and get switched off.
Now, because the hash-power has now dropped precipitously, the rate at which blocks are mined drops hugely. This will be corrected at the next difficulty adjustment but difficulty adjustment periods are defined in terms of the block number, not date. With a 10 minute block time, the difficulty adjustment would be scheduled for about 10 days after the halving. If, say, 50% of miners stop mining, block time could increase to 20 minutes and the difficulty would adjust 20 days after the halving. The person who brought this up on Reddit was suggesting that somewhere around 88% of miners could switch off. Long block times could also be damaging to the Bitcoin price leading to even more unprofitability and even more miners switching off. And the longer and longer before the difficulty adjustment, the more miners are likely to switch off. You could argue that miners will keep mining because it's to their benefit to maintain confidence in Bitcoin but it's a prisoner's dilemma situation and it shouldn't be assumed that miners will operate as a charity. Note that not only would long block times just be bad in general, the 1MB block limit would mean that many transactions would not get processed (removing the limit would not be especially helpful if things got that bad though)
Now, I'm pretty optimistic that we won't see this doomsday scenario but I have to admit that it has a fair bit of legitimacy.
when the halving comes
hash-power won't drop so dramatically
Its not as tho the big farms aren't turning a profit...
and miners only get more efficient.
so there will most definitely be a lot of miners dropping out but closer to 10-25%, hashrate will drop out, and then start to climb again....
i was thinking i should maybe get into minning
when the tech is kinda topping out i could buy a 2000$ minner just to heat my home in the winter.
but i wonder... using the miner to heat your home you might make the net electricity cost XX$
if you save 300$ in heating a year and it cost you 380$ in electricity ... and you gentarte 1BTC... no bad
the big problem with mining profitability is staying current with the latest hardware. you'll generate 1BTC first year and 0.5 the next and then 0.25
still if the saving on heat mean you only really spent 80$ minning that 0.5BTC all year... why not.
yes sure unless... your miner died 2 month after you receive it.
November 16, 2015, 12:52:57 PM
CCMF
November 16, 2015, 12:52:34 PM
anyone notice huobi on fire ? 
November 16, 2015, 12:52:15 PM
Burn bears burn!
November 16, 2015, 12:51:28 PM
Both 1h and 2h PSAR flipped to bullish, but first on western exchanges, China was slow at this.
November 16, 2015, 12:49:15 PM
The funny thing is: we've all been focusing on how the halving will affect the price. But what about the hashrate? If the BTC price is still scraping along the bottom, a whole bunch of mines are going to become unprofitable in an instant.
I have seen someone bring this up on Reddit. In theory, what could happen is the block reward drops, a bunch of miners become immediately unprofitable and get switched off.
Now, because the hash-power has now dropped precipitously, the rate at which blocks are mined drops hugely. This will be corrected at the next difficulty adjustment but difficulty adjustment periods are defined in terms of the block number, not date. With a 10 minute block time, the difficulty adjustment would be scheduled for about 10 days after the halving. If, say, 50% of miners stop mining, block time could increase to 20 minutes and the difficulty would adjust 20 days after the halving. The person who brought this up on Reddit was suggesting that somewhere around 88% of miners could switch off. Long block times could also be damaging to the Bitcoin price leading to even more unprofitability and even more miners switching off. And the longer and longer before the difficulty adjustment, the more miners are likely to switch off. You could argue that miners will keep mining because it's to their benefit to maintain confidence in Bitcoin but it's a prisoner's dilemma situation and it shouldn't be assumed that miners will operate as a charity. Note that not only would long block times just be bad in general, the 1MB block limit would mean that many transactions would not get processed (removing the limit would not be especially helpful if things got that bad though)
Now, I'm pretty optimistic that we won't see this doomsday scenario but I have to admit that it has a fair bit of legitimacy.
when the halving comes
hash-power won't drop so dramatically
Its not as tho the big farms aren't turning a profit...
and miners only get more efficient.
so there will most definitely be a lot of miners dropping out but closer to 10-25%, hashrate will drop out, and then start to climb again....
i was thinking i should maybe get into minning
when the tech is kinda topping out i could buy a 2000$ minner just to heat my home in the winter.
but i wonder... using the miner to heat your home you might make the net electricity cost XX$
if you save 300$ in heating a year and it cost you 380$ in electricity ... and you gentarte 1BTC... no bad
the big problem with mining profitability is staying current with the latest hardware. you'll generate 1BTC first year and 0.5 the next and then 0.25
still if the saving on heat mean you only really spent 80$ minning that 0.5BTC all year... why not.
November 16, 2015, 12:47:52 PM
Thar she blows
November 16, 2015, 12:01:18 PM
November 16, 2015, 11:46:42 AM
The funny thing is: we've all been focusing on how the halving will affect the price. But what about the hashrate? If the BTC price is still scraping along the bottom, a whole bunch of mines are going to become unprofitable in an instant.
I have seen someone bring this up on Reddit. In theory, what could happen is the block reward drops, a bunch of miners become immediately unprofitable and get switched off.
Now, because the hash-power has now dropped precipitously, the rate at which blocks are mined drops hugely. This will be corrected at the next difficulty adjustment but difficulty adjustment periods are defined in terms of the block number, not date. With a 10 minute block time, the difficulty adjustment would be scheduled for about 10 days after the halving. If, say, 50% of miners stop mining, block time could increase to 20 minutes and the difficulty would adjust 20 days after the halving. The person who brought this up on Reddit was suggesting that somewhere around 88% of miners could switch off. Long block times could also be damaging to the Bitcoin price leading to even more unprofitability and even more miners switching off. And the longer and longer before the difficulty adjustment, the more miners are likely to switch off. You could argue that miners will keep mining because it's to their benefit to maintain confidence in Bitcoin but it's a prisoner's dilemma situation and it shouldn't be assumed that miners will operate as a charity. Note that not only would long block times just be bad in general, the 1MB block limit would mean that many transactions would not get processed (removing the limit would not be especially helpful if things got that bad though)
Now, I'm pretty optimistic that we won't see this doomsday scenario but I have to admit that it has a fair bit of legitimacy.
November 16, 2015, 11:25:20 AM
Haven't been monitoring this forum for a week or so, but I just wanted to say that I have a feeling we're going to see some bulls once more. This time from Japan. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34829408
I thought it was amusing Japan expanded their "lost decade" to actually be two decades, but still call it lost decade anyway.
November 16, 2015, 11:19:00 AM
Did the hashrate raise up because mining got profitable again at $300+ for some entity?
Not really, a new generation of more energy efficient machines are being released.
more energy efficient === more profitable atm
so yes atm its quite profitable for new machine to mine at this diff and this price. but can it even reach ROI within.... say 6 month ?
I don't think that's a realistic goal anymore. Those days are gone. If you buy miners today you're looking at something between 1-2 years before roi for the whole operation. If you already have a mine with all the infrastructure and only need to replace the mining units, you're looking at closer to 6 months if you can get a decent price when you sell your old mining units.
The funny thing is: we've all been focusing on how the halving will affect the price. But what about the hashrate? If the BTC price is still scraping along the bottom, a whole bunch of mines are going to become unprofitable in an instant.
indeed, even with free electricity, the price of miner plus shipment plus plus... would need at least 6+ month to ROI because you need 7+ btc to buy the latest miner then the miner would yield something like 1+ btc per month.
so atm its better to buy.
November 16, 2015, 11:09:44 AM
Did the hashrate raise up because mining got profitable again at $300+ for some entity?
Not really, a new generation of more energy efficient machines are being released.
more energy efficient === more profitable atm
so yes atm its quite profitable for new machine to mine at this diff and this price. but can it even reach ROI within.... say 6 month ?
I don't think that's a realistic goal anymore. Those days are gone. If you buy miners today you're looking at something between 1-2 years before roi for the whole operation. If you already have a mine with all the infrastructure and only need to replace the mining units, you're looking at closer to 6 months if you can get a decent price when you sell your old mining units.
The funny thing is: we've all been focusing on how the halving will affect the price. But what about the hashrate? If the BTC price is still scraping along the bottom, a whole bunch of mines are going to become unprofitable in an instant.
indeed, even with free electricity, the price of miner plus shipment plus plus... would need at least 6+ month to ROI because you need 7+ btc to buy the latest miner then the miner would yield something like 1+ btc per month.
so atm its better to buy.
November 16, 2015, 11:01:16 AM
November 16, 2015, 10:47:22 AM
Did the hashrate raise up because mining got profitable again at $300+ for some entity?
Not really, a new generation of more energy efficient machines are being released.
more energy efficient === more profitable atm
so yes atm its quite profitable for new machine to mine at this diff and this price. but can it even reach ROI within.... say 6 month ?
I don't think that's a realistic goal anymore. Those days are gone. If you buy miners today you're looking at something between 1-2 years before roi for the whole operation. If you already have a mine with all the infrastructure and only need to replace the mining units, you're looking at closer to 6 months if you can get a decent price when you sell your old mining units.
The funny thing is: we've all been focusing on how the halving will affect the price. But what about the hashrate? If the BTC price is still scraping along the bottom, a whole bunch of mines are going to become unprofitable in an instant.
November 16, 2015, 10:34:00 AM
Did the hashrate raise up because mining got profitable again at $300+ for some entity?
Not really, a new generation of more energy efficient machines are being released.
more energy efficient === more profitable atm
so yes atm its quite profitable for new machine to mine at this diff and this price. but can it even reach ROI within.... say 6 month ?
November 16, 2015, 10:01:14 AM
November 16, 2015, 09:53:16 AM
BitcoinXT is not the same as BIP101. BitcoinXT is a software repository. BIP101 is a proposed way to rise the limit. If you don't like BitcoinXT, you could implement BIP101 yourself by patching BitcoinCore. BitcoinXT will remove the BIP101 code, or replace by some other BIP, if the community were to reject BIP101. BitcoinCore will eventually implement BIP101, or some other BIP, if the community maintains their support for it.
To be fair, in the article Armstrong is talking about XT rather than BIP101
November 16, 2015, 09:49:22 AM
Price is flat, forum is dead. Exciting times are upon us! 
Stability achieved.
Jump to: