Coin
Explanation
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 20539. (Read 26607488 times)
October 28, 2015, 12:01:31 PM
October 28, 2015, 11:49:45 AM
310-320 = resistance
I would be ok with that. Important is not to drop significantly.
i like that we are not in panicbuying-mode yet. slow and steady looks good so far.
if there is no panic buying, then why am I getting 0.09% DAILY interest on my fiat at BFX?
Let's see.. Last 24 Change: +3.08%
That's more than 0.09% interest. Better keep your holdings in BTC.
Early adopters like me keep the vast majority of our coins in cold storage. It's only my trading stash that's in fiat.
That's how I used to do it (what seems like) ages ago: keep USD on exchange and lend it out.
Nowadays, to reduce exchange risk, I keep less on the exchange and just go short on leverage.
The psychology sucks (you're looking at a position that's constantly in the red instead of repeated green interest payments), but it's the same thing (minus some interest I pay on BTC swaps and some opportunity cost on USD interest that more than makes up the exchange risk imo).
It's not an either or thing. i keep the terms of my loans short so I can use the funds myself if the situation warrants. Basically, I never leverage long until just AFTER a long squeeze and never leverage short until just after s a short squeeze. As these events are often separated by months, I gain interest in the mean time.
I also keep a few BTC handy for arbitrage, but that doesn't matter if the price is going up or down. Going down I save of the rebuy. Going up I make money on the sale. This trade doesn't scale so I don't need much.
Makes sense.
Essentially I was just saying that personally I prefer to withdraw coins instead of gaining interest.
October 28, 2015, 11:43:52 AM
Market took a dump, it's ready to start eating again
Let's hope we can hold the 300.This would be very important imo!
October 28, 2015, 11:42:12 AM
310-320 = resistance
I would be ok with that. Important is not to drop significantly.
i like that we are not in panicbuying-mode yet. slow and steady looks good so far.
if there is no panic buying, then why am I getting 0.09% DAILY interest on my fiat at BFX?
Let's see.. Last 24 Change: +3.08%
That's more than 0.09% interest. Better keep your holdings in BTC.
Early adopters like me keep the vast majority of our coins in cold storage. It's only my trading stash that's in fiat.
That's how I used to do it (what seems like) ages ago: keep USD on exchange and lend it out.
Nowadays, to reduce exchange risk, I keep less on the exchange and just go short on leverage.
The psychology sucks (you're looking at a position that's constantly in the red instead of repeated green interest payments), but it's the same thing (minus some interest I pay on BTC swaps and some opportunity cost on USD interest that more than makes up the exchange risk imo).
It's not an either or thing. i keep the terms of my loans short so I can use the funds myself if the situation warrants. Basically, I never leverage long until just AFTER a long squeeze and never leverage short until just after s a short squeeze. As these events are often separated by months, I gain interest in the mean time.
I also keep a few BTC handy for arbitrage, but that doesn't matter if the price is going up or down. Going down I save of the rebuy. Going up I make money on the sale. This trade doesn't scale so I don't need much.
October 28, 2015, 11:31:19 AM
... Or may even be positive for China, if foreigners buy coins from the Chinese.
Foreigners already buy coins from the Chinese. That's where bit coins are made (mined)
October 28, 2015, 11:29:34 AM
I'm gonna repeat the question: why then is the buying pressure not 24/7 and only on China day time?
Where are you seeing that? At Bitfinex (Hong Kong)? At the Chinese echanges?
Apparently Mavrodi's ponzi (and Chinese copycats) are most popular in China. (Recall the MyCoin ponzi in HK, earlier this year? There seems to be a rich "market" for such things there.) Chinese victims are of course going to buy their bitcoins on Chinese exchanges, during Chinese day/evening time.
MMM doesn't need Bitcoin to steal money - Mavrodi has been playing this game for 25 years. He' currently active in China, India and South Africa at a minimum, but the website claims Thailand, Hong Kong, Philipines, Indonesia and East Africa as well. He's using bitcoin to transfer the money around the system - When the system cashes out we will see significant selling pressure.
Of course this is not the first MMM mega-ponzi, but this time seems to be different because he is using bitcoin to make victims all over the world, without himself being established in any country. This ponzi promises to be bigger, longer lived, and much more difficult to stop than the previous fiat-based ones.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I am assuming that the payouts too are in bitcoin (or in Mavros); and the victims are likely to keep or re-invest their payouts in the ponzi. So I don't expect to see a "cash-out" any time soon. There may be a big bitcoin sale after the ponzi collapses, if and when Mavrodi and his asssociates decide to cash out.
snip
My assumption was of significant sell pressure when Mavrodi cashes out - but I take your point that this may be of significantly longer timescale than the previous FIAT based MMM schemes. I wonder as well whether Russia's recent legislation on bitcoin and its use may have been influenced by Mavrodi's involvement and MMM - the Russian experience was unpleasant to say the least and the state has a long memory
October 28, 2015, 11:25:55 AM
Yeah, I just didn't see that one coming.
October 28, 2015, 11:24:46 AM
I'm gonna repeat the question: why then is the buying pressure not 24/7 and only on China day time?
Where are you seeing that? At Bitfinex (Hong Kong)? At the Chinese echanges?
Apparently Mavrodi's ponzi (and Chinese copycats) are most popular in China. (Recall the MyCoin ponzi in HK, earlier this year? There seems to be a rich "market" for such things there.) Chinese victims are of course going to buy their bitcoins on Chinese exchanges, during Chinese day/evening time.
MMM doesn't need Bitcoin to steal money - Mavrodi has been playing this game for 25 years. He' currently active in China, India and South Africa at a minimum, but the website claims Thailand, Hong Kong, Philipines, Indonesia and East Africa as well. He's using bitcoin to transfer the money around the system - When the system cashes out we will see significant selling pressure.
Of course this is not the first MMM mega-ponzi, but this time seems to be different because he is using bitcoin to make victims all over the world, without himself being established in any country. This ponzi promises to be bigger, longer lived, and much more difficult to stop than the previous fiat-based ones.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I am assuming that the payouts too are in bitcoin (or in Mavros); and the victims are likely to keep or re-invest their payouts in the ponzi. So I don't expect to see a "cash-out" any time soon. There may be a big bitcoin sale after the ponzi collapses, if and when Mavrodi and his asssociates decide to cash out.
The question is how long will the Chinese authorities take to deal with these ponzis, and how hard will this impact bitcoin.
The most radical move would be to shut down all mainland Chinese exchanges and make bitcoin (wallet) possession a crime, then we could see single digits.
The most radical move would be to shut down all mainland Chinese exchanges and make bitcoin (wallet) possession a crime, then we could see single digits.
That is a possibilty, but only if the thing gets really big. In the nov/2013 rally, the Chinese traders imported perhaps a billion USD worth of bitcoins, which would have meant putting that much CNY in foreign hands -- all without government knowledge, licenses, custom taxes, etc. In retrospect, the dec/2013 decree was a natural reaction to that huge "contraband" activity.
Mavrodi's ponzi may bring back that scenario. However there are some differences: this time there are tons of bitcoins in the hands of Chinese citizens, so the cross-border flow of CNY may be smaller, since the Chinese victims will mostly buy their coins from Chinese holders. Or may even be positive for China, if foreigners buy coins from the Chinese.
October 28, 2015, 11:19:31 AM
^You snooze, you lose
October 28, 2015, 11:16:50 AM
Jesus, until we break 285 this is nothing
Patience, my boy! 
October 28, 2015, 11:16:01 AM
310-320 = resistance
I would be ok with that. Important is not to drop significantly.
i like that we are not in panicbuying-mode yet. slow and steady looks good so far.
if there is no panic buying, then why am I getting 0.09% DAILY interest on my fiat at BFX?
Let's see.. Last 24 Change: +3.08%
That's more than 0.09% interest. Better keep your holdings in BTC.
Early adopters like me keep the vast majority of our coins in cold storage. It's only my trading stash that's in fiat.
It's good to hedge your bets; however, it remains true that even though you are getting a decent return on your fiat, it would have been better to have been in BTC.
October 28, 2015, 11:15:26 AM
Jesus, until we break 285 this is nothing
October 28, 2015, 11:15:13 AM
noobs panic selling lol
October 28, 2015, 11:14:50 AM
Oh shit! Bears are putting the hammer down on the market right now... Fucking Tarmi style! lol
sorry everyone...
i think i jinxed it
October 28, 2015, 11:14:45 AM
October 28, 2015, 11:14:33 AM
Bear trap?
October 28, 2015, 11:14:15 AM
Auch!!
October 28, 2015, 11:13:23 AM
down!
Why?
Why?
October 28, 2015, 11:11:54 AM
This is it gents.
October 28, 2015, 11:09:42 AM
Oh shit! Bears are putting the hammer down on the market right now... Fucking Tarmi style! lol
cue posting of polar bear - raised it up to here - dropped it down to there picture.
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