Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 20618.

Feri22

hero member

Activity: 748

Merit: 500

Quote from: tarmi on October 20, 2015, 09:06:17 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I like how longs are declining and shorts rising but the price still goes up Grin

yeap, we are going for the double top at full speed.

I hope this is the start of midterm reversal and your "double top" will be slaughtered fast so people like you will learn there is no place for arrogance in btc market

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3920

Merit: 11299

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on October 20, 2015, 08:21:54 AM

Quote from: Elwar on October 20, 2015, 07:32:08 AM

The auction does tend to move the price up and down due mainly to uncertainty.
Fortunately though, this is the last one. That should clear the way afterwards for an upward direction.

The announcement of the first USMS SR auction (2014-06-27; won by Tim Draper) apparently caused a drop in the price on 2015-06-11, from ~650 to ~590, that was reversed on 2014-06-30 when the result was revealed.

The second auction (2014-12-04; won by a SecondMarket syndicate and a small bid by Tim Draper) had no discernible effect on price, that remained pretty stable at ~375 for about a week before and a week after it.

Abut a week before before the third auction (2015-03-05; won by itBit), the price rose from ~240 to ~280, but probably for other causes. It remained stable through the auction, and had another small rise a few days later.

So it would seem that, after the first one, the market got used to the USMS auctions and ignores them (or "prices them in" well in advance).

This is the last USMS SR auction, but two more have been announced: the auction of ~24'500 BTC by the Australian government, and the auction or return of ~200'000 BTC by the MtGOX trustee, maybe by the end of the year.

Jorge: Actually, I tend to like to bash you for providing crappy information...

The above post is an exception, and I find it a very informative summary of the auction situation. Thanks for that contribution.

hendra147

hero member

Activity: 644

Merit: 509

welcome back $270
okey come on join party Roll Eyes

buy bitcoin now and hold it , we will hit $300 at end of this month Grin

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3920

Merit: 11299

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: gentlemand on October 20, 2015, 06:16:58 AM

Quote from: noobtrader on October 19, 2015, 11:35:48 PM

i'd love to see my stash worth more but realistically there are bitcoin auction in Nov, then Dec is holiday season. i dont really think we will break 300 soon.

btw i hope i was wrong.

I don't think auctions are a factor any more. And people make too many excuses for the time of year. Post Christmas it's 'everyone's broke, wait till spring.' Come spring 'It's the summer soon. Sell in May and go away. Maybe we'll see something in October/November'. Now 'it's Christmas soon. No one's spending.'

Going on that we have a 3-4 day window in late September where there are actually any people attending the Bitcoin market.

That's what I was trying to say, but you said it much better....

Wink

In other words, let the CCMF continue.

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Quote from: muyuu on October 20, 2015, 09:00:23 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on October 20, 2015, 08:21:54 AM

The announcement of the first USMS SR auction (2014-06-27; won by Tim Draper) apparently caused a drop in the price on 2015-06-11, from ~650 to ~590, that was reversed on 2014-06-30 when the result was revealed.

Abut a week before before the third auction (2015-03-05; won by itBit), the price rose from ~240 to ~280, but probably for other causes. It remained stable through the auction, and had another small rise a few days later.

When price drops it's "apparently because of the auction" and when it rises, it's "probably for other causes".

That is from my recollection of the forum discussions at the time. When the first auction was announced, people were quite worried. The dates of the drop and recovery also matched the announcement and the revelation of the outcome, and there was no other plausible explanation for them.

When the third auction was announced, the price was halfway through a general rising trend from ~220, and that trend apparently just went on undisturbed. Also there was much less discussion on the forums about that auction than about the previous two.

tarmi

legendary

Activity: 1232

Merit: 1011

Quote from: ?? on ??

I like how longs are declining and shorts rising but the price still goes up Grin

yeap, we are going for the double top at full speed.

tarmi

legendary

Activity: 1232

Merit: 1011

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on October 20, 2015, 08:13:42 AM

tarmi ... you can buy them here to dump

no, I have my sources. like miners. why would I buy them on an auction for a premium, after a 50 $ rise?

miners require less paperwork, less government involvement, less taxes, less fees to panthera etc. no incentive to buy them on auction. I would buy them only if the price is right. like 100 $. and then immediately dump them, ofc.

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 1823

1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Coin

Explanation

muyuu

donator

Activity: 980

Merit: 1000

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on October 20, 2015, 08:21:54 AM

Quote from: Elwar on October 20, 2015, 07:32:08 AM

The auction does tend to move the price up and down due mainly to uncertainty.
Fortunately though, this is the last one. That should clear the way afterwards for an upward direction.

The announcement of the first USMS SR auction (2014-06-27; won by Tim Draper) apparently caused a drop in the price on 2015-06-11, from ~650 to ~590, that was reversed on 2014-06-30 when the result was revealed.

The second auction (2014-12-04; won by a SecondMarket syndicate and a small bid by Tim Draper) had no discernible effect on price, that remained pretty stable at ~375 for about a week before and a week after it.

Abut a week before before the third auction (2015-03-05; won by itBit), the price rose from ~240 to ~280, but probably for other causes. It remained stable through the auction, and had another small rise a few days later.

So it would seem that, after the first one, the market got used to the USMS auctions and ignores them (or "prices them in" well in advance).

This is the last USMS SR auction, but two more have been announced: the auction of ~24'500 BTC by the Australian government, and the auction or return of ~200'000 BTC by the MtGOX trustee, maybe by the end of the year.

When price drops it's "apparently because of the auction" and when it rises, it's "probably for other causes".

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Quote from: Elwar on October 20, 2015, 07:32:08 AM

The auction does tend to move the price up and down due mainly to uncertainty.
Fortunately though, this is the last one. That should clear the way afterwards for an upward direction.

The announcement of the first USMS SR auction (2014-06-27; won by Tim Draper) apparently caused a drop in the price on 2015-06-11, from ~650 to ~590, that was reversed on 2014-06-30 when the result was revealed.

The second auction (2014-12-04; won by a SecondMarket syndicate and a small bid by Tim Draper) had no discernible effect on price, that remained pretty stable at ~375 for about a week before and a week after it.

Abut a week before before the third auction (2015-03-05; won by itBit), the price rose from ~240 to ~280, but probably for other causes. It remained stable through the auction, and had another small rise a few days later.

So it would seem that, after the first one, the market got used to the USMS auctions and ignores them (or "prices them in" well in advance).

This is the last USMS SR auction, but two more have been announced: the auction of ~24'500 BTC by the Australian government, and the auction or return of ~200'000 BTC by the MtGOX trustee, maybe by the end of the year.

marcus_of_augustus

legendary

Activity: 3920

Merit: 2349

Eadem mutata resurgo

Quote from: tarmi on October 20, 2015, 07:44:59 AM

there won't be any results, just usual post auction slow dump.

https://twitter.com/panteracapital/status/652560521770614784

tarmi ... you can buy them here to dump

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 1823

1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Coin

Explanation

r0ach

legendary

Activity: 1260

Merit: 1000

Quote from: tarmi on October 20, 2015, 07:44:59 AM

there won't be any results, just usual post auction slow dump.

Nobody is buying coins at an auction when they usually have to pay a premium in order to dump them right after. Only way this is happening is if nobody bids except like one guy, but that's clearly not the case.

tarmi

legendary

Activity: 1232

Merit: 1011

there won't be any results, just usual post auction slow dump.

also, a lot of mtgox coins left to be auctioned off.

noobtrader

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Elwar on October 20, 2015, 07:32:08 AM

Quote from: gentlemand on October 20, 2015, 06:16:58 AM

Quote from: noobtrader on October 19, 2015, 11:35:48 PM

i'd love to see my stash worth more but realistically there are bitcoin auction in Nov, then Dec is holiday season. i dont really think we will break 300 soon.

btw i hope i was wrong.

I don't think auctions are a factor any more. And people make too many excuses for the time of year. Post Christmas it's 'everyone's broke, wait till spring.' Come spring 'It's the summer soon. Sell in May and go away. Maybe we'll see something in October/November'. Now 'it's Christmas soon. No one's spending.'

Going on that we have a 3-4 day window in late September where there are actually any people attending the Bitcoin market.

The auction does tend to move the price up and down due mainly to uncertainty.

Fortunately though, this is the last one. That should clear the way afterwards for an upward direction.

auction certainly move the price down a bit, ppl will wait for auction result before buying imho, i agree that should clear the way afterwards for an upward direction after the auction.

Elwar

legendary

Activity: 3598

Merit: 2386

Viva Ut Vivas

Quote from: gentlemand on October 20, 2015, 06:16:58 AM

Quote from: noobtrader on October 19, 2015, 11:35:48 PM

i'd love to see my stash worth more but realistically there are bitcoin auction in Nov, then Dec is holiday season. i dont really think we will break 300 soon.

btw i hope i was wrong.

I don't think auctions are a factor any more. And people make too many excuses for the time of year. Post Christmas it's 'everyone's broke, wait till spring.' Come spring 'It's the summer soon. Sell in May and go away. Maybe we'll see something in October/November'. Now 'it's Christmas soon. No one's spending.'

Going on that we have a 3-4 day window in late September where there are actually any people attending the Bitcoin market.

The auction does tend to move the price up and down due mainly to uncertainty.

Fortunately though, this is the last one. That should clear the way afterwards for an upward direction.

ImI

legendary

Activity: 1946

Merit: 1019

Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on October 20, 2015, 06:53:23 AM

wall on itBit needs some observing.

true, seems like some volume to be seen there

billyjoeallen

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1007

Hide your women

Quote from: r0ach on October 20, 2015, 05:15:10 AM

Quote from: noobtrader on October 19, 2015, 11:35:48 PM

i'd love to see my stash worth more but realistically there are bitcoin auction in Nov, then Dec is holiday season. i dont really think we will break 300 soon.

The auctions don't really negatively or positively affect price. If anything, they will positively affect it after someone gets a huge stash then tries to manipulate it up.

and you don't think they will try to manipulate it down prior to the auction?

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 1823

1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ