Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 2070. (Read 26610996 times)

Two years ago I started a celebration thread for my 10,000th post, and just now, shortly after my 9-year anniversary on the forum and once again crossing the 10k mark,* I finished the thread!

It encapsulates my Top 10 Forum Moments, or at least that I could remember anyway. The Wall Observer thread makes two appearances. You don't have to read the whole thing, but you should at least take a look at it as I spent several hours on it dammit and don't have anybody else to show it off to.


*I deleted several shitposts, failed one-liners and posts at one point in the last two years.

I was "playing" with bitcoin numbers and have some thoughts on the matter.

Tops ($): 31, 1160, 19780, 68900

To me, it looks like the ATH number 'should have been' $154000 instead of $68900 in the prior peak.
Therefore, it suggests that it was not a "natural" progression, but interference from multiple sources (we all know that Chinese interfered first by shutting down mining and then the rally simply run out of steam due to time constrains plus the beginning of a tightening cycle). In the case of "natural progression" the multiplier might have been 7.8X in a 37X, 17X, 7.8X series-those are multiples from the prior post-halving ATH (and I don't count first peak in 2013). Therefore, the next (2024-2025) peak theoretically should be a 3.58X of the prior peak (which should have been 154K), suggesting a higher bound value of 551K and a lower bound of 246.9K (a product of 68.9X3.58). This suggests that if left alone, bitcoin could produce a super-cycle to "compensate" for the prior cycle underachievement.

However, the trough series are more menacing:
Bottoms: 2, 175, 3200, 15700 (tentatively)

Therefore, the multiple in these series are 87.5X, 18.3X and 4.9X, suggesting that the next trough would be maybe at 1.6X of 15700 or 24600.
If next trough to peak is 0.3 (3 percentage points better than 77% in the current cycle), this would suggest ATH of "only" 82K, which would be a disappointment to many, including myself.

TL;DR The cycle got messed with last time and it is not clear if there would be a "rebound' to the "natural" progression in the form of a 'super-cycle" or not. If yes, then 246-551K is achievable and if not, we might peak at much more pedestrian 82K.

my dca is this weds. so we rally mon and tues

Agreed.
Since my DCA will trigger next Monday, the price should be back over $30k before.

I’m starting to worry that the correction might go deeper. I’m usually a good reverse indicator though so it probably means the bottom is in for now 

Hoping for a rally back to $30,000 this week. We do not want to see the prove move down to the lower $20,000’s.

HODL strong boys!

BobLawblaw - This poster is known for his technical expertise and his contributions to the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Nutildah is a former member of the Bitcoin Forum Wall Observer thread who was known for his contrarian views and sometimes controversial statements. He was a prolific poster on the thread, and his contributions often sparked lively debates and discussions. However, he has not been active on the forum since early 2020.

ChatGPT is an absolute cunt.