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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 20888. (Read 26607532 times)

legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007


Blockstream is leading the development of a block size increase with a number of upcoming BIPXXX release as I understand it.

The Flexcap idea doesn't make sense to me.  It seems Adam is trying to artificially make it more expensive for miners to publish large blocks.  The reason this doesn't make sense to me is that even without a block size limit it would be more expensive for miners to publish large blocks due to the orphan cost.  Why use "Flexcap" to simulate the natural supply and demand dynamics that already exist?

The fact that larger blocks are more costly to produce is illustrated in Fig. 8 of this paper:




your beautiful graphic can't help you Peter.

you have been well advised that propagation time is not a constant and will very much improve over the years making it increasingly cheaper for miners to publish bigger blocks.

You are confused.  What you just wrote is exactly what the Figure shows; moving to the left on the horizontal axis represents faster propagation rates.  Or just read the figure caption: "Improvements in the rate at which block solutions can be communicated to the other miners significantly decrease the cost of the attack."

This is not a problem.  As network connectivity improves, both transaction fees (measured in BTC) and the cost of spam attacks is reduced.  But that makes sense because the network is proportionally more able to handle the added TX volume.  That's why the costs are lower in the first place!  

The free market: it really does work Wink
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 504
Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks


Blockstream is leading the development of a block size increase with a number of upcoming BIPXXX release as I understand it.

The Flexcap idea doesn't make sense to me.  It seems Adam is trying to artificially make it more expensive for miners to publish large blocks.  The reason this doesn't make sense to me is that even without a block size limit it would be more expensive for miners to publish large blocks due to the orphan cost.  Why use "Flexcap" to simulate the natural supply and demand dynamics that already exist?

The fact that larger blocks are more costly to produce is illustrated in Fig. 8 of this paper:




your beautiful graphic can't help you Peter.

you have been well advised that propagation time is not a constant and will very much improve over the years making it increasingly cheaper for miners to publish bigger blocks.
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007

…technical mumbo-jumbo…

In other words, it may take several more weeks for CCMF, based on some kind of consensus... until then, maybe we are going to get another test of $200 and possibly into the $180s-ish... ?

Hahaha sorry for polluting the Wall Observer thread with my tech talk.  The problem is that our usual discussion thread for this type of thing (Gold Collapsing. Bitcoin UP) was locked by the Forum Administrators.  Furthermore, my submissions to /r/bitcoin are all censored now.  Since I've lost my two favourite outlets, my Bitcoin addiction is leaking into nearby threads...
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


Blockstream is leading the development of a block size increase with a number of upcoming BIPXXX release as I understand it.

The Flexcap idea doesn't make sense to me.  It seems Adam is trying to artificially make it more expensive for miners to publish large blocks.  The reason this doesn't make sense to me is that even without a block size limit it would be more expensive for miners to publish large blocks due to the orphan cost.  Why use "Flexcap" to simulate the natural supply and demand dynamics that already exist?

The fact that larger blocks are more costly to produce is illustrated in Fig. 8 of this paper:



As an example, in the absence of a block size limit, it would cost a miner approximately 100 BTC on average to publish a 128 MB block, assuming a propagation impedance of 7.5 sec / MB.

In a discussion with a 0.5% miner, Adam recently said:

   "Now if there is an excess of supply, price falls, ergo fees will drop to zero basically."

which is not true and demonstrates Adam's lack of understanding of the transaction fee market.  If the block size is not constrained by the protocol, then the fee per kilobyte is governed largely by the orphan cost. The orphan cost is a function of the propagation impedance for block solutions. Raising the block size limit does not affect the propagation impedance. Fees per kilobyte would be largely unchanged; however, since more kilobytes of transactions could be included in a block, the total fees per block could grow higher.

TL/DR: Flexcap reinvents the natural fee market.



In other words, it may take several more weeks for CCMF, based on some kind of consensus... until then, maybe we are going to get another test of $200 and possibly into the $180s-ish... ?
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007


Blockstream is leading the development of a block size increase with a number of upcoming BIPXXX release as I understand it.

The Flexcap idea doesn't make sense to me.  It seems Adam is trying to artificially make it more expensive for miners to publish large blocks.  The reason this doesn't make sense to me is that even without a block size limit it would be more expensive for miners to publish large blocks due to the orphan cost.  Why use "Flexcap" to simulate the natural supply and demand dynamics that already exist?

The fact that larger blocks are more costly to produce is illustrated in Fig. 8 of this paper:



As an example, in the absence of a block size limit, it would cost a miner approximately 100 BTC on average to publish a 128 MB block, assuming a propagation impedance of 7.5 sec / MB.

In a discussion with a 0.5% miner, Adam recently said:

   "Now if there is an excess of supply, price falls, ergo fees will drop to zero basically."

which is not true and demonstrates Adam's lack of understanding of the transaction fee market.  If the block size is not constrained by the protocol, then the fee per kilobyte is governed largely by the orphan cost. The orphan cost is a function of the propagation impedance for block solutions. Raising the block size limit does not affect the propagation impedance. Fees per kilobyte would be largely unchanged; however, since more kilobytes of transactions could be included in a block, the total fees per block could grow higher.

TL/DR: Flexcap reinvents the natural fee market.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1007
Hm, why are people euphoric about BIP100 superseding BIP101?

AFAIK, there is no implementation yet of BIP100, and its details are not even fully specified.  (Is there one?)

For me this shows the level of chaos that's present in this ecosystem. Luckily this is a very fast and innovative system and things will improve faster and better than in other systems. This is the first attempt of the ecosystem to learn and reach consensus. It needs time to learn how to deal with these situations. But for now there is chaos.

Because BIP101 is broken.

Why?
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
Can't you see what these assholes are doing? They want to scare everyone off of BFX because those $25 M in margin longs will all have to close at some point. BY opposing block size increase, they are keeping almost any new investment from VCs because a Bitcoin that doesn't scale is a bitcoin that can't disrupt. So when the market slumps, it will flash-crash on BFX and they will be the only ones on BFX scooping up BTC for pennies on the dollar. 

BFX has problems but so do all other exchanges.

both bulls and bears are taking down leverage. We're seeing a slump because miners don't run the show. The market does and the market ain't buying your shitty BIP100.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 504
Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks
Hm, why are people euphoric about BIP100 superseding BIP101?

Because BIP101 is broken.

Moreover, BIP100 will allow blocks larger than 1 MB, won't it?

Yes, correct, this is the purpose of BIP 100.

Moreover, BitcoinCore does not implement BIP100, and so fat Blockstream has been totally opposed to any increase.  So, if BIP100 gets into effect, it will be by some other implementation, right?.





Blockstream is leading the development of a block size increase with a number of upcoming BIPXXX release as I understand it.

I don't trust much the votes from the miners but one thing is for sure they want no business with 8 MB blocks.

Am I missing something?

Everything!
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007
Hm, why are people euphoric about BIP100 superseding BIP101?

AFAIK, there is no implementation yet of BIP100, and its details are not even fully specified.  (Is there one?)

Moreover, BIP100 will allow blocks larger than 1 MB, won't it?

Moreover, BitcoinCore does not implement BIP100, and so fat Blockstream has been totally opposed to any increase.  So, if BIP100 gets into effect, it will be by some other implementation, right?.

Am I missing something?

I don't think you are.  However, I think this will be a good thing (yes, I know, I see everything as good for bitcoin Wink)

Imagine this: Core refuses to pull BIP100 because of developer deadlock (perhaps Gavin objects [I hope he does], or perhaps Greg disagrees).  Then Jeff Garzik forks Core into "Bitcoin-100" perhaps along with Gavin.  We end up with three competing implementations: Core (1 Mb), XT (BIP101) and Bitcoin-100 (BIP100).  Node operators then express their choice by downloading and running their favourite client.  Eventually, the losing dev teams cave (they don't want to lose all of their user base) and implement changes to make their code compatible with whatever appears to be the favourite scaling solution.

This has two benefits:

1.  Consensus is achieved for larger blocks

2.  We end up decentralizing development so that the circle on the right in the image below contains three slices of (hopefully) significant size.  



full member
Activity: 306
Merit: 100

If bitcoin becomes one of the biggest financial instruments, and there is a fork, favouring miners mostly, my guess is that everyone (techsavvy enough) will fire up their computer to mine. Suddenly those mining pools will look very small compared to billion+ computers running against them.


Average user cpu mining might get around 20 mh/s if they're lucky (see: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Non-specialized_hardware_comparison#CPUs.2FAPUs)

The current network hashrate is estimated at nearly 400,000 TH/s - meaning, you need about 20 billion average users to mine bitcoin with their computers...

Somehow, I don't think that everyone (techsavvy enough) will have even the slightest effect.

Well, that's concerning to say the least.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Hm, why are people euphoric about BIP100 superseding BIP101?

AFAIK, there is no implementation yet of BIP100, and its details are not even fully specified.  (Is there one?)

Moreover, BIP100 will allow blocks larger than 1 MB, won't it?

Moreover, BitcoinCore does not implement BIP100, and so fat Blockstream has been totally opposed to any increase.  So, if BIP100 gets into effect, it will be by some other implementation, right?.

Am I missing something?
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250

Bitfinex changed banks to CTBC BANK Co.  Notifications sent out via email this morning.

Heard withdrawals are being manually approved after the data corruption issue stated on Twitter.  The oldest of my 4 withdrawals is going on 24 hours.  As a result of this holdup, I'm not trading until this is fixed.

Is abercrombies cryptos dead?



Sorry in advance. I know I'm an asshole. I just couldn't help it.

Haha...  

Ok Bitfinex apparently was migrating to a new multisig wallet.  When the Withdrawals started working again they did a double send, one from the old and one from the new.  So I received duplicate Bitcoin transactions and double the Bitcoin at my destination address.  Confirmed with another Bitfinex user.  

A few hours later, once they figured it their blunder they deducted the respective amount from the current USD deposits.

Shakes my confidence in Bitfinex.  Is crypto... (you know the rest)

So you have double the coins and complain they corrected it in the best way possible. Greedy much...?
Do you see both of those Transactions in the block explorer with same TX number? hmmm can't be 2 of the same number.. strange occurrence. Both confirm?  Shocked (If I am understanding this correctly)
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz

Ok Bitfinex apparently was migrating to a new multisig wallet.  When the Withdrawals started working again they did a double send, one from the old and one from the new.  So I received duplicate Bitcoin transactions and double the Bitcoin at my destination address.  Confirmed with another Bitfinex user.  

A few hours later, once they figured it their blunder they deducted the respective amount from the current USD deposits.

Shakes my confidence in Bitfinex.  

Wait a minute, they sent you double bitcoin? I'm going to assume you weren't the only person this happened to. So what happens if they sent you double and you had no fiat or bitcoin left on account?

These kind of mistakes do not inspire confidence, I must agree. (Gives new twist to "double spend" though Wink)
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
now if everyone fired up an ant miner S5 at 1.1 TH then ya maybe   Grin
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
@theshmadz

If bitcoin becomes one of the biggest financial instruments, and there is a fork, favouring miners mostly, my guess is that everyone (techsavvy enough) will fire up their computer to mine. Suddenly those mining pools will look very small compared to billion+ computers running against them.


Average user cpu mining might get around 20 mh/s if they're lucky (see: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Non-specialized_hardware_comparison#CPUs.2FAPUs)

The current network hashrate is estimated at nearly 400,000 TH/s - meaning, you need about 20 billion average users to mine bitcoin with their computers...

Somehow, I don't think that everyone (techsavvy enough) will have even the slightest effect.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
So much for Bip 100 doing anything much for price  Huh A consensus should bring confidence in price,,, one might think lol
full member
Activity: 306
Merit: 100
If bitcoin becomes one of the biggest financial instruments, and there is a fork, favouring miners mostly, my guess is that everyone (techsavvy enough) will fire up their computer to mine. Suddenly those mining pools will look very small compared to billion+ computers running against them.

Also, miners would shoot themselves in their foot if they'd support a fork which only benefits miners instead of the users.

Not a chance.

Explain. Because people do like to vote with their 'wallet'.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
If bitcoin becomes one of the biggest financial instruments, and there is a fork, favouring miners mostly, my guess is that everyone (techsavvy enough) will fire up their computer to mine. Suddenly those mining pools will look very small compared to billion+ computers running against them.

Also, miners would shoot themselves in their foot if they'd support a fork which only benefits miners instead of the users.

Not a chance.
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