Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 21155. (Read 26712953 times)

At the time (and even now), many bitcoiners totally ignored China, and assumed that the Apr/2013 and Nov/2013 rallies were "Western" things.  While the causes of the first are still debatable, the Dec/2013 crash and the events in Mar--May/2014 should have been enough to prove that the Nov/2013 rally was due to Chinese demand.

A comparison of the prices among the various exchanges shows that Bitfinex and BTC-China were clearly leading the Apr/2013 rally, while the Nov/2013 one was pulled BTC-China, Huobi, and OKCoin (ad possibly other Chinese exchanges for which I have no data).

Popper's book (in the excerpts that have been published elsewhere) seems to say that the April/2013 boom was due to big whales like Andreessen and the Fortress Group investing lots of money in bitcoin, after attending a bitcoin presentation by Wences Casares in March 2013.

As I wrote before, my own favorite theory is that the first 2013 bubble started in January, when BTC-China and Bitfinex made bitcoin popular in Shanghai and Hong Kong.  My guess is that Mark or some other MtGOX insider decided to profit from the bubble by trading in China with the customers' bitcoins.  That guy then created Willy, a robot which would buy bitcoins from other MtGOX customers at a 10% premium with non-existent dollars.  The gy then would withdraw those coins and sell them in China.  The plan must have been to bring the revenue from those sales out of China, and use part of it to fill the clients' dollar accounts, pocketing the profit. 

That scheme apparently continued all through the Nov/2013 peak.  But the plan would have collapsed in Dec/2013 when the PBoC blocked the accounts of the Chinese exchanges.  Otherwise, the purchases of bitcoins by the Chinese during 2013 would have meant at least half a billion dollars in CNY leaving the country, in exchange for a bunch of "worthless nothings" that had been imported without licenses or taxes...

By the way, Popper's account is not incompatible with this theory.  The big investors who started buying in March/2013 may well have bought at Bitfinex, or even at BTC-China, for reasons of liquidity.

Okay. Lets try to talk a bit respectful:

You maybe dont believe, but Im also a bitcoin enthusiast. Being a bitcoin enthusiast does not mean that I cant keep my objectivity like falling in love with a woman - doing and thinking crazy shit and shouting out my love. Thats like a maniac-depression and has no place for me in investments.

I saw here a lot of people calling themself bulls and shouting out their own sentiment in a crazy manner on all mayor consolidations since the ath. Afterwards the consolidation resulted bearish and a lot of these people disapeared from this forum but Im still here. And I will stay here if the price goes down to 50$ or if it goes up to 32,000$.

Im a long term bull, a real bitcoin bull - and no bitcoin-hipster. At the same time I try to trade the market without any delusion that my sentiment or my (bearish or bullish) mantras have any effect on the price. I try to take the swings and the direction how it comes...and if it goes down even harder...I dont care....I try to take my profit of this...and keep bullish in long term. 200, 150, 100, 50, 40...I dont care.

let's see what will happen:



which is stronger? chinese (OKCoin) or the rest:

Was that the last time you made a correct call?

OK what is your target price by the end of August 2015?

My target price is 315$

Informed players are bulls or bears based on the position they have already taken - and they take this position based on where they speculate the market will go.  

No intelligent person plays the market continuously as one or the other. Except people like you, and the other permabulltards who litter this thread, hating anyone who tries to take a more balanced view.

Yes, I have played my position, as I posted on Tuesday.  But I only buy and sell - I don't take short positions, and I certainly don't leverage. But I also spend far more time adopting my business model to include bitcoin as a method of exchange. If everyone spent more time trying to live more with bitcoin, we could develop it much further, instead of just standing on the sidelines hoping to be rich.

Well your recent performance hasn't.

We have:

MA crossed, first descending triangle --> UP, second descending triangle --> maybe UP

That's exactly what I mean. I remember exactly the same responds by the perma Bulls when we were at 800$, 600$ and 400$...

Thinking back I am laughing my ass off when everybody was "hodling" when the bubble started to burst rapidly... All the 300 "Hodl" pictures on Reddit, they were all soooooo wrong..
It's amazing how people think this is a clear multiyear Bullflag because if you log at the log chart it starts from 0,01$ and we are above it.

 
Yeah, I'm constantly wrong since ~800. 

Oh my fucking God. Thank you for answering...now I know where this nonsense bullishness comes from. Idiocy.

Well I expect at least a bit more realism after we dropped from 1200$ to 160$.

When will all the perma Bulls become disillusioned....? I mean there are still people thinking we will go straight to 30k$ with the next weekly candle.
If Karpeles was the motor behind the May 2013 and December 2013 bubble in the end we will never see 1200$ again even thought people think Bitcoin will take over the world but in fact the blockchain is the thing the world is interested in.

Scaling out of triple tax exempt Munis and into Bitcoin...it has only just begun! 

You are posting on a bitcoin enthusiast forum. Why are you surprised people are enthusiastic and confident about bitcoin? Serious question because you post here often enough to have grasped that by now.

Nearly a billion projected USD VC capital investment for 2015. The bitcoin community is still extremely small for those kind of valuations. Zoom out on the long term price chart.

Finally and most importantly (for me at least) this is my play money to do with as I wish. My shares are never going to do anything exciting except plod along or eventually crash when the central bank spigot is turned on. Property is just for living in or renting out. Bitcoin is exciting and for ideological reasons is attractive also.

I'm never amazed that you are consistently wrong...yet trading Bitcoin is fun and easy!  

Where, net worth?

YOU ARE TALKING BULLSHIT, MAN!

well if you look at the chart (log or non log) we broke the trendline in June 2014 also with an even better bottom

if you look at the log version it shows the same pattern like in June 2014 I market them. The only difference back then there was barely any Leverage trading... That's why the % swings were bigger back then..

log version Bitstamp:
We created nice Pinbars everytime we tried to touch >300$ recently... That's not bullish at all.


Well surely we broke the downtrend-lines but this doesn't mean we will instantly create a new uptrend and start the next bubble.
With all the Pinbars we had when we reached 300 it does actually more and more like another failed attempt to me...
In the end we could have just created another downtrendline...


surely the support on the Bitfinex orderbook is great but when shit hits the fan it's just one or two parachutes early adopters can fast exit the market.

As long as there is no real demand for bitcoin we I am still skeptical about a real uptrend. All this "Greece, We broke the Trendline, This time it's different, To the Moon" created the recent attempt to really break 300$ but it looks like it failed another time.



I really wonder if we could reach double digits... I am going to be so curious how all the perma Bulls will still show their moon pictures because we broke the downtrend line ...

I'm always astonished about the bullish self confidence...

...like the price never did break out of the logarithmic downtrend before only to form a new logarithmic downtrend.

I don't even say that there's absolutely no chance for a new mayor bull market from here (what would be the contrarian side of mental deficiency)...

...but what is this ever lasting and repeating bullishness where market did not confirm any direction? The same happened within all mayor consolidations since the ath. Is this an effect of smoking too much crack?

Coin
Explanation

Lol he obviously don't know who are the ones reading this thread or lurking around here. This bitcoin thread in particular has helped a lot of people before and still doing so.