Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 21209.

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on July 22, 2015, 08:10:15 PM

Within 6 months after the last halving bitcoin went up 10 fold, within 12 months it went up 100 fold.

That is true... however:

In the 2 years before the last halving (2010-11-27 -- 2012-11-27) the price rose from ~0.28 to ~13 $/BTC (~45 times)

The price was practically flat around the halving (on 2012-11-28) and for the next 5 weeks.

In the 2 years after that halving (2012-11-29 and 2014-11-29) the price rose from ~13 to ~330 $/BTC (~25 times)

These numbers do not seem to indicate a significant correlation between the block reward and the price evolution.

Moreover, the rallies in 2013 have other explanations, not related to the reward: Bobby Lee took the command at BTC-China, OKCoin and Huobi opened in Mailand China, and bitcoin was "discovered" by some big investors like Fortress and marc Adreessen, and by the legion of Chinese amateur commodity traders.

By the way: the crash of Dec/2014 was clearly due to developments in China, so the preceding rally must have been born there, too.

gentlemand

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Welt Am Draht

Quote from: edgar on July 22, 2015, 09:12:41 PM

a simpler question would be 'is max keiser a scammer/shill/spook?'

Unquestionably a silly sausage. I don't think he did his credibility many favours with the Quark thing either.

edgar

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Quote from: Blazin8888 on July 22, 2015, 08:51:19 PM

http://www.maxkeiser.com/2015/07/bitshares-nyse/

E95 2015-07-17 Developer Hangout with Bytemaster: https://youtu.be/wWQfXgq4sI4

In the dev hangout they say a big bank is in talks with them could be huge.

Is bitshares a scam?

a simpler question would be 'is max keiser a scammer/shill/spook?'

ChartBuddy

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Coin

Explanation

Blazin8888

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http://www.maxkeiser.com/2015/07/bitshares-nyse/

E95 2015-07-17 Developer Hangout with Bytemaster: https://youtu.be/wWQfXgq4sI4

In the dev hangout they say a big bank is in talks with them could be huge.

Is bitshares a scam?

Cconvert2G36

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Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on July 22, 2015, 08:10:15 PM

Quote from: Elwar on July 22, 2015, 03:26:46 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2015, 02:38:58 PM

Well yeah the 2020 halving is also 'priced in'. Everyone knows the economy behind Bitcoin production and inflation. Knowing from the start when halvings in production are taking place and having a cap on the total money supply is why many people are here and why many speculators forsee an increase in price over time as long as new money >= coins wishing to be sold.

Yes, nothing happened after the first halving when the price was $9 because it was priced in. Nothing happened soon after that. Can't fight science.

Within 6 months after the last halving bitcoin went up 10 fold, within 12 months it went up 100 fold. Nothing is priced in since monetary good pricing is subject to a huge amount of inertia (stock-to-flow ratio very high) but when that inertia is overcome by pricing at the margin (true demand/supply) the new level can be very much higher and fueled by pricing perceptions and a large amount of speculative psychology.

Good point. We all have an idea of what the halving means, and some will even adjust our perceptions ahead of time. The actual balance of supply and demand is a completely different animal. Will we see 100x again shortly after the next halving? As much as it would please me... no.

Something like 10 million coins aren't traded at all every month, meaning there are lots of parachute strings to be pulled in the happy circumstance of a precipitous rise resulting from demand outstripping supply.

marcus_of_augustus

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Eadem mutata resurgo

Quote from: Elwar on July 22, 2015, 03:26:46 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2015, 02:38:58 PM

Well yeah the 2020 halving is also 'priced in'. Everyone knows the economy behind Bitcoin production and inflation. Knowing from the start when halvings in production are taking place and having a cap on the total money supply is why many people are here and why many speculators forsee an increase in price over time as long as new money >= coins wishing to be sold.

Yes, nothing happened after the first halving when the price was $9 because it was priced in. Nothing happened soon after that. Can't fight science.

Within 6 months after the last halving bitcoin went up 10 fold, within 12 months it went up 100 fold. Nothing is priced in since monetary good pricing is subject to a huge amount of inertia (stock-to-flow ratio very high) but when that inertia is overcome by pricing at the margin (true demand/supply) the new level can be very much higher and fueled by pricing perceptions and a large amount of speculative psychology.

shmadz

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@theshmadz

Quote from: Karpeles on July 22, 2015, 07:31:12 PM

Quote from: JimboToronto on July 22, 2015, 07:26:45 PM

Wherefore art thou Chartbuddy?

You're late. AWOL?

Even bots needs some rest

^^Best quip I've read in days.^^

Well done Mark.

Karpeles

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Quote from: JimboToronto on July 22, 2015, 07:26:45 PM

Wherefore art thou Chartbuddy?

You're late. AWOL?

Even bots need some rest

JimboToronto

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You're never too old to think young.

Wherefore art thou Chartbuddy?

You're late. AWOL?

Greendragon

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ALL DAY HIGH!!!!!!

Morecoin Freeman

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Legendary trader

Quote from: findftp on July 22, 2015, 06:14:49 PM

Quote from: Morecoin Freeman on July 22, 2015, 06:13:42 PM

Trending up again?

Yes, it just went up 3 cents...

Amazing! I knew it.

findftp

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Delusional crypto obsessionist

Quote from: Morecoin Freeman on July 22, 2015, 06:13:42 PM

Trending up again?

Yes, it just went up 3 cents...

Morecoin Freeman

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Legendary trader

Trending up again?

ChartBuddy

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BrewCrewFan

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Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2015, 05:58:36 PM

Quote from: Elwar on July 22, 2015, 03:26:46 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2015, 02:38:58 PM

Well yeah the 2020 halving is also 'priced in'. Everyone knows the economy behind Bitcoin production and inflation. Knowing from the start when halvings in production are taking place and having a cap on the total money supply is why many people are here and why many speculators forsee an increase in price over time as long as new money >= coins wishing to be sold.

Yes, nothing happened after the first halving when the price was $9 because it was priced in. Nothing happened soon after that. Can't fight science.

Explainable by demand (new money >= coins wishing to be sold), not necessarily a direct result of the halving. The point being you still need new money coming in to be greater than the value of the coins wishing to be sold regardless of mining amount. Saying supply halving MUST mean price increase is not true.

If we did not have new money coming in then the price would be zero.
IMO, if it even sniffed 100 bucks I would take a chance a buy a good amount of coin myself.

dreamspark

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Quote from: Elwar on July 22, 2015, 03:26:46 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2015, 02:38:58 PM

Well yeah the 2020 halving is also 'priced in'. Everyone knows the economy behind Bitcoin production and inflation. Knowing from the start when halvings in production are taking place and having a cap on the total money supply is why many people are here and why many speculators forsee an increase in price over time as long as new money >= coins wishing to be sold.

Yes, nothing happened after the first halving when the price was $9 because it was priced in. Nothing happened soon after that. Can't fight science.

Explainable by demand (new money >= coins wishing to be sold), not necessarily a direct result of the halving. The point being you still need new money coming in to be greater than the value of the coins wishing to be sold regardless of mining amount. Saying supply halving MUST mean price increase is not true.

BrewCrewFan

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Quote from: Elwar on July 22, 2015, 03:26:46 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2015, 02:38:58 PM

Well yeah the 2020 halving is also 'priced in'. Everyone knows the economy behind Bitcoin production and inflation. Knowing from the start when halvings in production are taking place and having a cap on the total money supply is why many people are here and why many speculators forsee an increase in price over time as long as new money >= coins wishing to be sold.

Yes, nothing happened after the first halving when the price was $9 because it was priced in. Nothing happened soon after that. Can't fight science.

I dont know if that was sarcasm or not but I will side with not.
very few people gave a shit about BTC when it was 9 bucks bud. When you could mine tons with just a cpu... yeah.

ChartBuddy

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