Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 21478. (Read 26709834 times)

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-block-size-conflict-ends-latest-update/

Prob repost, but I'm lazy.

Hey Jorge, do you have a thread for this and the BIT shares? They're good summaries and might be worth their own thread. Also, there appears to be a significant uptick in the volume of this one over the last week

That's useful, I only knew about the whole of China grinding to a halt for new year celebrations. The Dragon Boat Festival sounds like it has a similar effect if all the banks are closed because of it. That could make a big difference to Bitcoin's price on Monday morning.

My girlfriend has her own business & a lot of her supplies are made in China, it's the Dragon Boat Festival this weekend so literally all of China grinds to a halt this weekend. The factories that supply my partner emailed her to let her know there may be a delay with her deliveries. Any way I just thought I'd mention this here, might be a reason why the BTC price has dipped a bit if it's like holiday season in China, banks are closed etc.
You can read about the festival here -  http://www.chinahighlights.com/festivals/dragon-boat-festival.htm

Coin
Explanation

Greyscale BIT shares (GBTC) daily trading summary:

    Date       ! NTr ! UpS_LO !  UpS_HI !   VSHR !   VBTC !       VUSD !       UpS !      UpB ! OBS      
    -----------+-----+--------+---------+--------+--------+------------+-----------+----------+----------
    2015-05-04 |     |   .    | 200.000 |    765 |   76.5 |        .   |    .      |    .     | (+0)(+1) 
    2015-05-05 |  18 | 50.000 | 175.000 |    435 |   43.5 |   32198.00 |  74.01839 | 740.1839 | (+0)     
    2015-05-06 |   4 | 65.000 |  68.000 |    125 |   12.5 |    8268.50 |  66.14800 | 661.4800 | (+0)     
    2015-05-07 |  45 | 40.000 |  86.000 |   2844 |  284.4 |  163651.00 |  57.54255 | 575.4255 |          
    2015-05-08 |  68 | 49.000 |  59.000 |  14807 | 1480.7 |  750019.70 |  50.65305 | 506.5305 |          

    2015-05-11 |  53 | 49.500 |  57.950 |   2756 |  275.6 |  143247.34 |  51.97654 | 519.7654 |          
    2015-05-12 |  31 | 49.000 |  52.250 |   2286 |  228.6 |  113299.25 |  49.56223 | 495.6223 |          
    2015-05-13 |  10 | 49.000 |  50.000 |    327 |   32.7 |   16113.10 |  49.27554 | 492.7554 |          
    2015-05-14 |  54 | 44.000 |  49.950 |  20894 | 2089.4 | 1004923.74 |  48.09628 | 480.9628 |  
    2015-05-15 |  29 | 38.000 |  45.000 |   2320 |  232.0 |   97444.35 |  42.00188 | 420.0188 |          

    2015-05-18 |  58 | 27.150 |  38.000 |   4950 |  495.0 |  158115.83 |  31.94259 | 319.4259 |          
    2015-05-19 |  39 | 27.890 |  29.900 |   4308 |  430.8 |  122327.92 |  28.39552 | 283.9552 |          
    2015-05-20 |  28 | 29.250 |  32.250 |   4859 |  485.9 |  148652.00 |  30.59313 | 305.9313 |          
    2015-05-21 |  19 | 30.500 |  32.000 |   2882 |  288.2 |   90663.50 |  31.45854 | 314.5854 |          
    2015-05-22 |  28 | 31.900 |  33.100 |   4971 |  497.1 |  160009.60 |  32.18861 | 321.8861 |          

    2015-05-26 |  18 | 31.000 |  32.000 |   1148 |  114.8 |   36623.50 |  31.90200 | 319.0200 | (+3)     
    2015-05-27 |   4 | 30.550 |  32.000 |    404 |   40.4 |   12444.00 |  30.80198 | 308.0198 |          
    2015-05-28 |  13 | 30.300 |  33.000 |   1140 |  114.0 |   35701.40 |  31.31702 | 313.1702 |          
    2015-05-29 |  10 | 31.950 |  33.000 |    463 |   46.3 |   15174.00 |  32.77322 | 327.7322 |          

    2015-06-01 |   8 | 30.570 |  33.000 |   1046 |  104.6 |   33074.57 |  31.62005 | 316.2005 |    
    2015-06-02 |  12 | 28.520 |  33.000 |   1408 |  140.8 |   42462.40 |  30.15795 | 301.5795 |    
    2015-06-03 |  14 | 28.150 |  30.000 |    414 |   41.4 |   12175.30 |  29.40894 | 294.0894 |          
    2015-06-04 |  13 | 28.150 |  29.250 |   1926 |  192.6 |   56194.40 |  29.17674 | 291.7674 |    
    2015-06-05 |   9 | 29.000 |  29.250 |    875 |   87.5 |   25562.55 |  29.21434 | 292.1434 |          

    2015-06-08 |  15 | 28.300 |  29.500 |   1866 |  186.6 |   54570.00 |  29.24437 | 292.4437 |          
    2015-06-09 |   9 | 28.450 |  29.150 |    737 |   73.7 |   21252.80 |  28.83691 | 288.3691 | 
    2015-06-10 |   7 | 29.000 |  29.500 |    796 |   79.6 |   23302.25 |  29.27418 | 292.7418 | 
    2015-06-11 |  12 | 28.500 |  29.250 |   1329 |  132.9 |   38732.15 |  29.14383 | 291.4383 | 
    2015-06-12 |  11 | 28.910 |  29.100 |   1838 |  183.8 |   53257.80 |  28.97595 | 289.7595 | 

    2015-06-15 |  12 | 28.950 |  29.100 |   1156 |  115.6 |   33577.60 |  29.04637 | 290.4637 | 
    2015-06-16 |  33 | 28.500 |  29.100 |   4750 |  475.0 |  137751.33 |  29.00028 | 290.0028 | 
    2015-06-17 |  45 | 28.600 |  30.000 |  21115 | 2111.5 |  615529.90 |  29.15131 | 291.5131 | 
    2015-06-18 |  14 | 28.800 |  29.250 |   1713 |  171.3 |   49733.90 |  29.03322 | 290.3322 |
    2015-06-19 |  10 | 28.600 |  29.100 |   1772 |  177.2 |   50942.20 |  28.74842 | 287.4842 | 

Data from the Freerealtime site, except those flagged (+0) and (+1) (see below).

UpS_LO = Lowest price (USD/share) in the specified day.

UpS_HI = Highest price (USD/share) in that day.

NTr = Number of listed trades in day.

VSHR = Number of shares traded in that day.

VBTC = Number of BTC equivalent to those shares (ignoring fees) = VSHR*10.

VUSD = Trade volume in USD (sum over all trades of num of shares times price per share).

UpS = Average price in day (USD/share) = VUSD/VSHR.

UpB = Implied bitcoin price (USD/BTC) = VUSD*10/VSHR.

OBSERVATIONS:

(+0) The rice range for this entry was obtained from this post.

(+1) For 2015-05-04, the values of NTr, UpS_LO, VSHR, VUSD, and UpS could not
be determined; the value of VSHR was taken from the OTCQX page.

(+3) Holiday in the US.

Bitcoin Tracker One (BITCOIN-XBT) notes -- daily trading summary:

    Date       !  NTr ! SpN_LO ! SpN_HI !    VNOT !      VBTC !        VSEK !      SpN !  SpU !    UpB ! OBS 
    -----------+------+--------+--------+---------+-----------+-------------+----------+------+--------+-----
    2015-05-18 |  120 |   9.66 |   9.73 |  189783 |   948.915 |  1837195.92 |  9.68051 | 8.24 | 234.96 |     
    2015-05-19 |   77 |   9.61 |   9.72 |  109376 |   546.880 |  1057572.27 |  9.66914 | 8.35 | 231.60 |     
    2015-05-20 |   31 |   9.68 |   9.79 |   90988 |   454.940 |   886232.68 |  9.74011 | 8.35 | 233.30 |     
    2015-05-21 |   18 |   9.74 |   9.79 |  135233 |   676.165 |  1319500.95 |  9.75724 | 8.32 | 234.55 |     
    2015-05-21 |   23 |   9.72 |   9.89 |  128618 |   643.090 |  1259617.61 |  9.79348 | 8.32 | 235.42 |     

    2015-05-25 |   29 |   9.91 |  10.10 |   90759 |   453.795 |   902925.40 |  9.94860 | 8.41 | 236.59 |     
    2015-05-26 |   30 |   9.96 |  10.03 |  151238 |   756.190 |  1512820.76 | 10.00291 | 8.43 | 237.32 |     
    2015-05-27 |   14 |  10.04 |  10.12 |   86275 |   431.375 |   868373.30 | 10.06518 | 8.51 | 236.55 |     
    2015-05-28 |   25 |  10.01 |  10.09 |   72006 |   360.030 |   723643.90 | 10.04977 | 8.48 | 237.02 |     
    2015-05-29 |   28 |   9.98 |  10.04 |  106617 |   533.085 |  1066415.00 | 10.00230 | 8.52 | 234.80 |     

    2015-06-01 |      |    .   |    .   |  119031 |   595.155 |         .   |   .      | 8.54 |    .   | (@1)
    2015-06-02 |   15 |   9.50 |   9.58 |   44950 |   224.750 |   429993.88 |  9.56605 | 8.58 | 222.98 |     
    2015-06-03 |   12 |   9.47 |   9.52 |   56022 |   280.110 |   532896.02 |  9.51226 | 8.41 | 226.21 |     
    2015-06-04 |   10 |   9.34 |   9.38 |  109117 |   545.585 |  1021222.78 |  9.35897 | 8.27 | 226.34 |     
    2015-06-05 |   13 |   9.23 |   9.51 |   58629 |   293.145 |   553229.43 |  9.43611 | 8.34 | 226.29 |     

    2015-06-08 |   10 |   9.36 |   9.50 |   48075 |   240.375 |   450949.80 |  9.38013 | 8.38 | 223.87 |     
    2015-06-09 |   11 |   9.43 |   9.56 |  141025 |   705.125 |  1335575.25 |  9.47049 | 8.30 | 228.20 |     
    2015-06-10 |    9 |   9.47 |   9.51 |  123100 |   615.500 |  1167717.00 |  9.48592 | 8.29 | 228.85 |     
    2015-06-11 |   11 |   9.45 |   9.49 |  163000 |   815.000 |  1545460.00 |  9.48135 | 8.23 | 230.41 |     
    2015-06-12 |   20 |   9.44 |   9.49 |  291000 |  1455.000 |  2753960.00 |  9.46378 | 8.21 | 230.54 |     

    2015-06-15 |   33 |   9.60 |   9.66 |  153477 |   767.385 |  1478796.63 |  9.63530 | 8.18 | 235.58 |     
    2015-06-16 |   67 |   9.73 |   9.96 |  234542 |  1172.710 |  2305594.30 |  9.83020 | 8.18 | 240.35 |     
    2015-06-17 |  135 |  10.21 |  10.57 |  493677 |  2468.385 |  5119212.14 | 10.36956 | 8.18 | 253.53 |     
    2015-06-18 |  112 |   9.88 |  10.17 |  635137 |  3175.685 |  6328464.94 |  9.96394 | 8.10 | 246.02 |     
    2015-06-19 |      |        |        |         |           |             |          |      |        | (@2)
    -----------+------+--------+--------+---------+-----------+-------------+----------+------+--------+-----
    TOTAL      |      |        |        | 3831675 | 19158.375 |             |          |      |        |     
    -----------+------+--------+--------+---------+-----------+-------------+----------+------+--------+-----

Data from the BITCOIN-XBT page at NetFonds.se.

NTr = Number of trades listed in day.

SpN_LO = Lowest price (SEK/note) in specified day.

SpN_HI = Highest price (SEK/note) in the specified day.

VNOT = Number of notes (shares) traded in day.

VBTC = Trade volume in BTC, ignoring fees = VNOT/200.

VSEK = Trade volume in SEK (sum over all trades of num of notes times price per note).

SpN = Average note price in SEK for that day = VSEK/VNOT.

SpU = Assumed SEK/USD currency exchange rate (typically from www.xe.com, some time during day).

UpB = Average implied USD/BTC price ignoring fees = SpN*200/SpU

OBSERVATIONS:

(@1) Failed to grab the trades on this day. VNOT from a bitcointalk post.

(@2) Holiday in Sweden, trading closed.

Doesn't matter, all it takes is a little hyperbole and euphoria to drive the price up. No one from Greece has to actually buy bitcoin.

They seem to have 5% of the total hashpower now, so they should be mining 3600 x 0.05 = 180 BTC per day.

However, they are now selling their BTC packaged as "XBT Tracker One" electronic notes, at the NASDAQ Sweden market.  Each note is only an IOU for 0.05 BTC, so when they sell the note the do not have to move any bitcoins.

Those wallets may be where they keep the bitcoins that are supposed to back the notes that they have issued or plan to issue.  The total trade volume of  those notes on NASDAQ-SE so far is ~19'000 BTC, but that includes notes that have been bought and sold many times.  Somewhere in the net (at Bloomberg?) one can find the amount of notes that they have actually issued; but I can't find the URL now.

It couldn't hurt.

Think about it. Greece has hundreds of islands, thousands of KM of coast plus they must be bored of all this regular economics shit.

Ruble?

Coin
Explanation

I bet if Greece will exit the Euro, the Drachma will not be its currency... and before you judge, this is not insider's info, just an opinion.

In places like China you can get electricity at cents/kwh plus super cheap ASIC(they are made in China), plus one dollar is worth much in 3rd world countries...

About the next halving, it will make the sell pressure lower, so the prices should increase(at least 2x the current price). If they do things will keep going as they are, if not, miners might just shut down their clients and the total hash power of the network will be lowered until a new equilibrium is found. What would happen in the meantime is the big question

I actually like the slow upward movement with slight ups and downs. Bitcoin has finally found some stability despite of the growing optimism. It's possible a bubble will form, but I have got the impression this slow upward movement will just continue. (Not taking into account Black Swan events)

PS: voted for 260, as that would be the logical continuation of the slow upwards trend.

the fact that they still mining at these difficulty scares me   

i wonder what will happen after reward halfing... could be crash one more time because everyone want to get out  
then price can rises to its potential 

Not everyone can afford don't sell any bitcoin they mine, because they need to pay electricity bills etc, and not everyone can or is willing to use money coming from other activities to keep your nodes running(it might be really expensive if you are a big farmer).

And his 6k BTC are less than 2 days of block rewards, so I don't think they are really significant

Coin
Explanation

Put tarmi on the case and we'll all be begging for the drachma as the new pan-european currency.