Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 21628. (Read 26609436 times)
May 30, 2015, 01:15:18 AM
The battle for $23X...
May 30, 2015, 12:57:49 AM
May 30, 2015, 12:21:26 AM
I have an image from that game waiting in my image folder for when this stability turns into a big uptrend.
May 30, 2015, 12:03:09 AM
Block with only 1 (ONE), transaction :S https://blockchain.info/es/block/000000000000000012cd89fe728bde70dae04917d63eeaf6b98dccca068bae7f
May 29, 2015, 11:57:31 PM
May 29, 2015, 11:45:13 PM
(+3) No data on 2015-05-25; a holiday?
Yes, memorial day in the US. Markets closed.
May 29, 2015, 11:28:43 PM
who knows... have you considered secret option #3 in which bitcoin is used by everyone on earth and the computing power required to secure the network is provided by governments ( because China has to make sure US doesn't try to double spend their debt payments ) allowing for totally free BTC payment for everyone.
Free lol... these folks want to charge people for tipping each other and fund raising for kids with cancer... It won't be free.
I hate this "Suck the governments dick for profit" mentality.
May 29, 2015, 11:25:27 PM
May 29, 2015, 11:24:33 PM
Btw, 550 transactions with less than half a cent fee took less than 4 hours to clear - even during an intentional spam attack on the network that saw unconfirmed transactions exceed 25,000.
https://blockchain.info/address/12qLgVrkW561PbpfvokKwfj7CPjCVwwCTS
There is no evidence that bitcoin will crash and burn once we reach the block limit. I would rather tackle the problem of sustainable transaction fees to support the miners now when the network is still small than push of the problem several years into the future when the network might be several times larger.
https://blockchain.info/address/12qLgVrkW561PbpfvokKwfj7CPjCVwwCTS
There is no evidence that bitcoin will crash and burn once we reach the block limit. I would rather tackle the problem of sustainable transaction fees to support the miners now when the network is still small than push of the problem several years into the future when the network might be several times larger.
I agree that block capacity is not an issue now. But is the time of 25btc and 12.5 btc block rewards the time to be seeking byte size rents? Maybe we should allow the network to grow to the point in which the benefits of using the chain are much more meaningful? It is good to test a child when they are young, but also important to let them grow and adjust to the level at which they can withstand the test.
May 29, 2015, 11:24:03 PM
Two observations about GBTC and Bitcoin Tracker One:
The volumes of BTrOne notes traded in the first two weeks were equivalent to 3269 BTC and 2534 BTC, respectively. According to the Blockchain.Info piechart, KnC has ~5% of the total hashpower; that means that they should be mining ~1300 BTC (about 300 k USD) per week.
The average BIT share was originally sold for 485 USD/BTC.
The volumes of BTrOne notes traded in the first two weeks were equivalent to 3269 BTC and 2534 BTC, respectively. According to the Blockchain.Info piechart, KnC has ~5% of the total hashpower; that means that they should be mining ~1300 BTC (about 300 k USD) per week.
The average BIT share was originally sold for 485 USD/BTC.
May 29, 2015, 11:05:08 PM
Btw, 550 transactions with less than half a cent fee took less than 4 hours to clear - even during an intentional spam attack on the network that saw unconfirmed transactions exceed 25,000.
https://blockchain.info/address/12qLgVrkW561PbpfvokKwfj7CPjCVwwCTS
There is no evidence that bitcoin will crash and burn once we reach the block limit. I would rather tackle the problem of sustainable transaction fees to support the miners now when the network is still small than push of the problem several years into the future when the network might be several times larger.
https://blockchain.info/address/12qLgVrkW561PbpfvokKwfj7CPjCVwwCTS
There is no evidence that bitcoin will crash and burn once we reach the block limit. I would rather tackle the problem of sustainable transaction fees to support the miners now when the network is still small than push of the problem several years into the future when the network might be several times larger.
May 29, 2015, 11:04:11 PM
what is the meaning of your stuff?
(that we are going nowhere but down, I guess)
(that we are going nowhere but down, I guess)
It is just data.
Thanks for the effort Stolfi.
An illiquid pink sheet and a nasdaq nordic etn from KnC are about as exciting as they will be. The SEC should just green light COIN now, the lack of interest might serve their interests.
May 29, 2015, 11:01:20 PM
Lol 26000 unconfirmed transactions. And blockchain.info is lagged like shit.
I think what's happening is other nodes are hanging onto 26,000+ old transactions while blockchain.info drops them after a certain amount of time, with only 5000 transactions, hence the discrepancy.
I think what's happening is other nodes are hanging onto 26,000+ old transactions while blockchain.info drops them after a certain amount of time, with only 5000 transactions, hence the discrepancy.
Where do you get the 26000 number?
I suspect many of the transactions will be considered spam or below the dust limit or whatever.
I'll be watching this guy's attempt to see if these transactions ever get accepted.
https://blockchain.info/address/12qLgVrkW561PbpfvokKwfj7CPjCVwwCTS
Are they paying the fees for those transactions, and how much is the combined total of fees paid? I assume the miners will ignore any transactions with no fees.
edit]
Block 358596 had fees of 0.4 Bitcoins. Spamming the Bitcoin network is not cheap.
https://blockchain.info/tx/7e10ba892d255c7c035e44b9a4216519d2ffbf4454f59f3cd5c1be3d23b5f3d9
That's the first transaction he sent, paid 0.000019 BTC in fees. I'm pretty sure all his transaction will go through eventually.
Also pretty sure that all this panic that bitcoin will collapse if we reach the block limit is just a bunch of bullshit FUD.
[Rant]
the main chain should not be treated as if it is a free unlimited resource. There should be a cost involved to place your entry in the blockchain, eventually, this cost will be significant. Scarcity on the main chain should be preserved.
Personally, I'm still undecided on how we can achieve this super-secure ledger while still offering a reasonably secure solution for everyday transactions, but I'm currently leaning towards side chains... or even just using alt coins, if there were low enough friction of transferring back and forth
[/rant]
Everyday purchases can be done using a 3rd party that you periodically top off. for example using http://www.getonebit.com/ to buy stuff anywere paypas is appected. I cant wait for this to be in beta, hopefully i get in on the "early access"
in anycase, i don't see why TX costs has to increase, for now the mining reward is sufficient, and TX vol will increase, 30 years from now when there is no more block reward the network will avg 100TX per second, 8,640,000TX a day, each with a 0.00001BTC fee bring in ~86.4BTC a day making the block reward ~0.6BTC. Assuming a tx fee of 0.00001BTC = 10 cents that means 1BTC = 10,000 dollars, making the block reward 6000$, currently the block reward is about 5900$, so we should be able to deliver the same kind of network security based off of TX fees alone. 8,640,000TX @ 10 cents a TX = 8640$ a day to keep bitcoin running. Maybe bitcoin is used by 2million poeple making an avg of 4.3 TX a day ( actually using bitcoin for day to day purchases ) These users would incur fees of 43cents a day or 13$ a month or 157.05$ year in TX fees, which appears to be competitive with banking fees
bottom line we need 2 million people using bitcoin for the network to be secure without a block reward
doable.
OK, but you are giving the same level of security (around 6000 dollars per block rewards) that is currently protecting a network worth about 3.5 billion and you want to use that same level incentive to protect a network where (1BTC = 10,000 dollars, so network worth about 210 billion)- and that doesn't even take into consideration colored coins representing equity in companies trading on nasdaq (coming soon
You are talking about a network worth a hundred times more, so the fees would need to be a hundred times higher (in this example, $10 fee to embed your transaction, perfectly reasonable, cheap even)
Bitcoin should be used for buying houses and lambos and private islands and settling debts between nations, not for buying coffee or tipping 25 cents to watch a you tube video.
...
I don't have the answer, I don't think anyone can know for sure.
I just think that bitcoin's killer app is the security and immutability of the Blockchain, and unless you can leverage the value of that security by enforcing scarcity and providing sufficient incentive to the miners to provide that security, then it's just not going to work.
who knows... have you considered secret option #3 in which bitcoin is used by everyone on earth and the computing power required to secure the network is provided by governments ( because China has to make sure US doesn't try to double spend their debt payments ) allowing for totally free BTC payment for everyone.
May 29, 2015, 10:57:32 PM
May 29, 2015, 10:46:53 PM
what is the meaning of your stuff?
(that we are going nowhere but down, I guess)
(that we are going nowhere but down, I guess)
It is just data.
May 29, 2015, 10:43:54 PM
Lol 26000 unconfirmed transactions. And blockchain.info is lagged like shit.
I think what's happening is other nodes are hanging onto 26,000+ old transactions while blockchain.info drops them after a certain amount of time, with only 5000 transactions, hence the discrepancy.
I think what's happening is other nodes are hanging onto 26,000+ old transactions while blockchain.info drops them after a certain amount of time, with only 5000 transactions, hence the discrepancy.
Where do you get the 26000 number?
I suspect many of the transactions will be considered spam or below the dust limit or whatever.
I'll be watching this guy's attempt to see if these transactions ever get accepted.
https://blockchain.info/address/12qLgVrkW561PbpfvokKwfj7CPjCVwwCTS
Are they paying the fees for those transactions, and how much is the combined total of fees paid? I assume the miners will ignore any transactions with no fees.
edit]
Block 358596 had fees of 0.4 Bitcoins. Spamming the Bitcoin network is not cheap.
https://blockchain.info/tx/7e10ba892d255c7c035e44b9a4216519d2ffbf4454f59f3cd5c1be3d23b5f3d9
That's the first transaction he sent, paid 0.000019 BTC in fees. I'm pretty sure all his transaction will go through eventually.
Also pretty sure that all this panic that bitcoin will collapse if we reach the block limit is just a bunch of bullshit FUD.
[Rant]
the main chain should not be treated as if it is a free unlimited resource. There should be a cost involved to place your entry in the blockchain, eventually, this cost will be significant. Scarcity on the main chain should be preserved.
Personally, I'm still undecided on how we can achieve this super-secure ledger while still offering a reasonably secure solution for everyday transactions, but I'm currently leaning towards side chains... or even just using alt coins, if there were low enough friction of transferring back and forth
[/rant]
Everyday purchases can be done using a 3rd party that you periodically top off. for example using http://www.getonebit.com/ to buy stuff anywere paypas is appected. I cant wait for this to be in beta, hopefully i get in on the "early access"
in anycase, i don't see why TX costs has to increase, for now the mining reward is sufficient, and TX vol will increase, 30 years from now when there is no more block reward the network will avg 100TX per second, 8,640,000TX a day, each with a 0.00001BTC fee bring in ~86.4BTC a day making the block reward ~0.6BTC. Assuming a tx fee of 0.00001BTC = 10 cents that means 1BTC = 10,000 dollars, making the block reward 6000$, currently the block reward is about 5900$, so we should be able to deliver the same kind of network security based off of TX fees alone. 8,640,000TX @ 10 cents a TX = 8640$ a day to keep bitcoin running. Maybe bitcoin is used by 2million poeple making an avg of 4.3 TX a day ( actually using bitcoin for day to day purchases ) These users would incur fees of 43cents a day or 13$ a month or 157.05$ year in TX fees, which appears to be competitive with banking fees
bottom line we need 2 million people using bitcoin for the network to be secure without a block reward
doable.
OK, but you are giving the same level of security (around 6000 dollars per block rewards) that is currently protecting a network worth about 3.5 billion and you want to use that same level incentive to protect a network where (1BTC = 10,000 dollars, so network worth about 210 billion)- and that doesn't even take into consideration colored coins representing equity in companies trading on nasdaq (coming soon
You are talking about a network worth a hundred times more, so the fees would need to be a hundred times higher (in this example, $10 fee to embed your transaction, perfectly reasonable, cheap even)
Bitcoin should be used for buying houses and lambos and private islands and settling debts between nations, not for buying coffee or tipping 25 cents to watch a you tube video.
...
I don't have the answer, I don't think anyone can know for sure.
I just think that bitcoin's killer app is the security and immutability of the Blockchain, and unless you can leverage the value of that security by enforcing scarcity and providing sufficient incentive to the miners to provide that security, then it's just not going to work.
May 29, 2015, 10:34:10 PM
...
Everyday purchases can be done using a 3rd party that you periodically top off. for example using http://www.getonebit.com/ to buy stuff anywere paypas is appected. I cant wait for this to be in beta, hopefully i get in on the "early access"
in anycase, i don't see why TX costs has to increase, for now the mining reward is sufficient, and TX vol will increase, 30 years from now when there is no more block reward the network will avg 100TX per second, 8,640,000TX a day, each with a 0.00001BTC fee bring in ~86.4BTC a day making the block reward ~0.6BTC. Assuming a tx fee of 0.00001BTC = 10 cents that means 1BTC = 10,000 dollars, making the block reward 6000$, currently the block reward is about 5900$, so we should be able to deliver the same kind of network security based off of TX fees alone. Maybe bitcoin is used by 2million poeple making an avg of 4.3 TX a day ( actually using bitcoin for day to day purchases ) These users would incur fees of 43cents a day or 13$ a month or 157.05$ year in TX fees, which appears to be competitive with banking fees
bottom line we need 2 million people using bitcoin for the network to be secure without a block reward
doable.
Everyday purchases can be done using a 3rd party that you periodically top off. for example using http://www.getonebit.com/ to buy stuff anywere paypas is appected. I cant wait for this to be in beta, hopefully i get in on the "early access"
in anycase, i don't see why TX costs has to increase, for now the mining reward is sufficient, and TX vol will increase, 30 years from now when there is no more block reward the network will avg 100TX per second, 8,640,000TX a day, each with a 0.00001BTC fee bring in ~86.4BTC a day making the block reward ~0.6BTC. Assuming a tx fee of 0.00001BTC = 10 cents that means 1BTC = 10,000 dollars, making the block reward 6000$, currently the block reward is about 5900$, so we should be able to deliver the same kind of network security based off of TX fees alone. Maybe bitcoin is used by 2million poeple making an avg of 4.3 TX a day ( actually using bitcoin for day to day purchases ) These users would incur fees of 43cents a day or 13$ a month or 157.05$ year in TX fees, which appears to be competitive with banking fees
bottom line we need 2 million people using bitcoin for the network to be secure without a block reward
doable.
right now we are at like 1.5 TX per second so we need an increase of 6666.66666666666% in TX vol assuming price rises by 6666.66666666666% aswell that gives us a price of 15,800$ making the 10 cent tx fee look more like 6.329113924050633e-6... assuming price discovery will over shoot this 15,800$ BTC target by a factor of 2.5 we should see >32,000$ bitcoins in <2 years
>32,000$ bitcoins in <2 years
May 29, 2015, 10:33:40 PM
For whatever it is worth too:
KnC's Bitcoin Tracker One notes (BITCOIN-XBT) -- daily trading summary:
Data from the BITCOIN-XBT page at NetFonds.se.
NTr = Number of trades listed in day.
SpN_LO = Lowest price (SEK/note) in specified day.
SpN_HI = Highest price (SEK/note) in the specified day.
VNOT = Number of notes (shares) traded in day.
VBTC = Trade volume in BTC, ignoring fees = VNOT/200.
VSEK = Trade volume in SEK (sum over all trades of num of notes times price per note).
SpN = Average note price in SEK for that day = VSEK/VNOT.
SpU = Assumed SEK/USD currency exchange rate (typically from www.xe.com, some time during day).
UpB = Average implied USD/BTC price ignoring fees = SpN*200/SpU
KnC's Bitcoin Tracker One notes (BITCOIN-XBT) -- daily trading summary:
Date ! NTr ! SpN_LO ! SpN_HI ! VNOT ! VBTC ! VSEK ! SpN ! SpU ! UpB ! OBS
-----------+-----+--------+--------+--------+---------+------------+----------+------+--------+-----
2015-05-18 | 120 | 9.66 | 9.73 | 189783 | 948.915 | 1837195.92 | 9.68051 | 8.24 | 234.96 |
2015-05-19 | 77 | 9.61 | 9.72 | 109376 | 546.880 | 1057572.27 | 9.66914 | 8.35 | 231.60 |
2015-05-20 | 31 | 9.68 | 9.79 | 90988 | 454.940 | 886232.68 | 9.74011 | 8.35 | 233.30 |
2015-05-21 | 18 | 9.74 | 9.79 | 135233 | 676.165 | 1319500.95 | 9.75724 | 8.32 | 234.55 |
2015-05-21 | 23 | 9.72 | 9.89 | 128618 | 643.090 | 1259617.61 | 9.79348 | 8.32 | 235.42 |
2015-05-25 | 29 | 9.91 | 10.10 | 90759 | 453.795 | 902925.40 | 9.94860 | 8.41 | 236.59 |
2015-05-26 | 30 | 9.96 | 10.03 | 151238 | 756.190 | 1512820.76 | 10.00291 | 8.43 | 237.32 |
2015-05-27 | 14 | 10.04 | 10.12 | 86275 | 431.375 | 868373.30 | 10.06518 | 8.51 | 236.55 |
2015-05-28 | 25 | 10.01 | 10.09 | 72006 | 360.030 | 723643.90 | 10.04977 | 8.48 | 237.02 |
2015-05-29 | 28 | 9.98 | 10.04 | 106617 | 533.085 | 1066415.00 | 10.00230 | 8.52 | 234.80 |
-----------+-----+--------+--------+--------+---------+------------+----------+------+--------+-----
Data from the BITCOIN-XBT page at NetFonds.se.
NTr = Number of trades listed in day.
SpN_LO = Lowest price (SEK/note) in specified day.
SpN_HI = Highest price (SEK/note) in the specified day.
VNOT = Number of notes (shares) traded in day.
VBTC = Trade volume in BTC, ignoring fees = VNOT/200.
VSEK = Trade volume in SEK (sum over all trades of num of notes times price per note).
SpN = Average note price in SEK for that day = VSEK/VNOT.
SpU = Assumed SEK/USD currency exchange rate (typically from www.xe.com, some time during day).
UpB = Average implied USD/BTC price ignoring fees = SpN*200/SpU
what is the meaning of your stuff?
(that we are going nowhere but down, I guess)
May 29, 2015, 09:57:29 PM
May 29, 2015, 09:50:46 PM
For whatever it is worth too:
KnC's Bitcoin Tracker One notes (BITCOIN-XBT) -- daily trading summary:
Data from the BITCOIN-XBT page at NetFonds.se.
NTr = Number of trades listed in day.
SpN_LO = Lowest price (SEK/note) in specified day.
SpN_HI = Highest price (SEK/note) in the specified day.
VNOT = Number of notes (shares) traded in day.
VBTC = Trade volume in BTC, ignoring fees = VNOT/200.
VSEK = Trade volume in SEK (sum over all trades of num of notes times price per note).
SpN = Average note price in SEK for that day = VSEK/VNOT.
SpU = Assumed SEK/USD currency exchange rate (typically from www.xe.com, some time during day).
UpB = Average implied USD/BTC price ignoring fees = SpN*200/SpU
KnC's Bitcoin Tracker One notes (BITCOIN-XBT) -- daily trading summary:
Date ! NTr ! SpN_LO ! SpN_HI ! VNOT ! VBTC ! VSEK ! SpN ! SpU ! UpB ! OBS
-----------+-----+--------+--------+--------+---------+------------+----------+------+--------+-----
2015-05-18 | 120 | 9.66 | 9.73 | 189783 | 948.915 | 1837195.92 | 9.68051 | 8.24 | 234.96 |
2015-05-19 | 77 | 9.61 | 9.72 | 109376 | 546.880 | 1057572.27 | 9.66914 | 8.35 | 231.60 |
2015-05-20 | 31 | 9.68 | 9.79 | 90988 | 454.940 | 886232.68 | 9.74011 | 8.35 | 233.30 |
2015-05-21 | 18 | 9.74 | 9.79 | 135233 | 676.165 | 1319500.95 | 9.75724 | 8.32 | 234.55 |
2015-05-21 | 23 | 9.72 | 9.89 | 128618 | 643.090 | 1259617.61 | 9.79348 | 8.32 | 235.42 |
2015-05-25 | 29 | 9.91 | 10.10 | 90759 | 453.795 | 902925.40 | 9.94860 | 8.41 | 236.59 |
2015-05-26 | 30 | 9.96 | 10.03 | 151238 | 756.190 | 1512820.76 | 10.00291 | 8.43 | 237.32 |
2015-05-27 | 14 | 10.04 | 10.12 | 86275 | 431.375 | 868373.30 | 10.06518 | 8.51 | 236.55 |
2015-05-28 | 25 | 10.01 | 10.09 | 72006 | 360.030 | 723643.90 | 10.04977 | 8.48 | 237.02 |
2015-05-29 | 28 | 9.98 | 10.04 | 106617 | 533.085 | 1066415.00 | 10.00230 | 8.52 | 234.80 |
-----------+-----+--------+--------+--------+---------+------------+----------+------+--------+-----
Data from the BITCOIN-XBT page at NetFonds.se.
NTr = Number of trades listed in day.
SpN_LO = Lowest price (SEK/note) in specified day.
SpN_HI = Highest price (SEK/note) in the specified day.
VNOT = Number of notes (shares) traded in day.
VBTC = Trade volume in BTC, ignoring fees = VNOT/200.
VSEK = Trade volume in SEK (sum over all trades of num of notes times price per note).
SpN = Average note price in SEK for that day = VSEK/VNOT.
SpU = Assumed SEK/USD currency exchange rate (typically from www.xe.com, some time during day).
UpB = Average implied USD/BTC price ignoring fees = SpN*200/SpU
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