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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 21782. (Read 26608947 times)

legendary
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full member
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legendary
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About the chances of COIN being approved:

Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg 2014-12-22
Bond Kings, Bitcoin and China: Exchange-Traded Funds to Watch For in 2015

Quote
One hundred ninety-nine new ETFs launched in 2014, a 30 percent jump over 2013. That expanded the total ETF universe to 1,666. And there are 1,111 new ETFs in registration, awaiting approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission. Among them are ETFs that would be the first ever to track activist investors, short-squeezed stocks and Saudi Arabia. [ ... ] The most famous ETF filing of them all is the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust (ticker-to-be: COIN). Any time a word is changed in the filing, it gets national media attention. COIN would purchase and store bitcoins in the same way that the SPDR Gold Shares ( GLD ) purchases and stores gold. The only difference is that the vault would be virtual. There is still doubt, however, that the SEC will approve the first-ever virtual asset ETF. The longer it sits in registration, the less likely it is to launch.

very interesting
hero member
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About the chances of COIN being approved:

Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg 2014-12-22
Bond Kings, Bitcoin and China: Exchange-Traded Funds to Watch For in 2015

Quote
One hundred ninety-nine new ETFs launched in 2014, a 30 percent jump over 2013. That expanded the total ETF universe to 1,666. And there are 1,111 new ETFs in registration, awaiting approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission. Among them are ETFs that would be the first ever to track activist investors, short-squeezed stocks and Saudi Arabia. [ ... ] The most famous ETF filing of them all is the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust (ticker-to-be: COIN). Any time a word is changed in the filing, it gets national media attention. COIN would purchase and store bitcoins in the same way that the SPDR Gold Shares ( GLD ) purchases and stores gold. The only difference is that the vault would be virtual. There is still doubt, however, that the SEC will approve the first-ever virtual asset ETF. The longer it sits in registration, the less likely it is to launch.
legendary
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got my 400btc buy order on ;-) ,  be prepared for next bull run to $300  Cool
legendary
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hero member
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glad to see GBTC is now trading, but it make 0 sence to me that theres no one willing to get out of GBTC @ 650 and or placing sell orders above 650. Out of 1.4 millions shares 100 are up for sale, and at 4X stamps price, kinda ridiculous....

Most people who bought BIT shares are probably long-term investors who are not scared by the current price dip. (They were willing to be locked infor 6 or 12 months when they bougt.)

Also, after the BIT shares weer "transferred" to the shareholders, each shareholder still needed to do some paperwork before he could put his shares for sale.  Perhaps most holders did not succeded in doing it, of did not have the time to do it, or did not give it a high enough priority.

Also, the average investor paid ~50 $/share, and the lucky ones who paid less include the founders.  They may not want to sell for much less than that.

Quote
can individuals go trade on this market? or do they have to go through an "MP" ?

Anyone can buy, but they have to use a registered stock broker.  Brokers may use other brokers.  

Quote
also its really bizarre that coindesk did not report this news of GBTC trading.

CoinDesk must be waiting for Greyscale to tell them what to write.  And Greyscale probbly wants to wait until there are some good news to tell.
hero member
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I try to leave for a nice extended three martini lunch and the place goes to hell. Classic Bitcoin.

Well, we have a 6h candle with BTC40k volume and I can almost guarantee that the price didn't move as far as whoever did the dumping wanted it to. Lots of buying as evidenced by that long bottom wick. Compare it to April 13th's 6h candle of similar volume and see how far the price went (hint: much farther). Volume like that tends to be stopping volume, not starting volume. What does it mean? Well that's for us to deduce.
legendary
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Trusted Bitcoiner
How did GBTC react to the dump? Could they be added to chartbuddy? We need to know the REAL price for BTC. Why can´t i find their REAL price on any other exchange? Could somebody please explain again? I don´t understand!   Embarrassed

GBTC data from OTCQX page at end of each day:

Date             day's price range      day's volume
---------------+----------------------+-------------
2015-05-04        37.98 --   42.00               765
2015-05-05        55.00 --   94.86               435
2015-05-06         N/A  --    N/A                125


According to a post on the SecondMarket Observer thread, when OTCQX updates the GBTC quote page, it ignores any trades smaller than 100 shares (10 BTC).  That is why the daily price range for today is shown as "N/A--N/A" ("not available") even though 125 shares were traded today.  Also, OTCQX has the same working hours as NYSE.

I don't think one can get better data from other sources; they can only get it from OTCQX.  Paying clients of OTCQX apparently have access to the trade log; perhaps someone can find some such client who would leak some hints...

EDIT: by the way, OTCQX is not like an ordinary stock or bitcoin exchange.  They seem to be more like a central database that collects and merges information from registered brokers; it is the brokers who keep the client's shares and execute the trades.  Right?


The bloomberg feed seems to display the complete dataset. I don't have access to this, but saw a screenshot in this thread a few days back which showed the various, small Asks I had set which were not visible elsewhere.

I sold 60 shares today at $65. Depending on which view you look at, that is either displayed or not.

This will all be moot when <100-share orders become noise.
It is unfortunate that in the bootstrap phase, over-generalized outlier rules remove much-needed visibility into whatever market activity does exist.

The most notable two events, in my mind, for the day were the utter lack of volume (no new BIT sellers), and a significant increase in the volume of Bids at $65. The amount increased as the day went on.

That said, in 3 days we have _not_ exploded upwards. It would take a single 1000 share seller to put the 50000 share Maxim order at $35 to the top of the list.

I played it safe, took the 50% gain with most of my remaining stake, and called it a day.

Continuing to watch with interest.
glad to see GBTC is now trading, but it make 0 sence to me that theres no one willing to get out of GBTC @ 650 and or placing sell orders above 650. Out of 1.4 millions shares 100 are up for sale, and at 4X stamps price, kinda ridiculous....

also what is this "MPID" thing? ( ManiPulator ID? )
can individuals go trade on this market? or do they have to go through an "MP"
what's the trading fees like?

also its really bizarre that coindesk did not report this news of GBTC trading.
and whats even more surprising is that BTC markets are down like 4%

I'm baffled.
legendary
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legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
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x
How did GBTC react to the dump? Could they be added to chartbuddy? We need to know the REAL price for BTC. Why can´t i find their REAL price on any other exchange? Could somebody please explain again? I don´t understand!   Embarrassed

GBTC data from OTCQX page at end of each day:

Date             day's price range      day's volume
---------------+----------------------+-------------
2015-05-04        37.98 --   42.00               765
2015-05-05        55.00 --   94.86               435
2015-05-06         N/A  --    N/A                125


According to a post on the SecondMarket Observer thread, when OTCQX updates the GBTC quote page, it ignores any trades smaller than 100 shares (10 BTC).  That is why the daily price range for today is shown as "N/A--N/A" ("not available") even though 125 shares were traded today.  Also, OTCQX has the same working hours as NYSE.

I don't think one can get better data from other sources; they can only get it from OTCQX.  Paying clients of OTCQX apparently have access to the trade log; perhaps someone can find some such client who would leak some hints...

EDIT: by the way, OTCQX is not like an ordinary stock or bitcoin exchange.  They seem to be more like a central database that collects and merges information from registered brokers; it is the brokers who keep the client's shares and execute the trades.  Right?


The bloomberg feed seems to display the complete dataset. I don't have access to this, but saw a screenshot in this thread a few days back which showed the various, small Asks I had set which were not visible elsewhere.

I sold 60 shares today at $65. Depending on which view you look at, that is either displayed or not.

This will all be moot when <100-share orders become noise.
It is unfortunate that in the bootstrap phase, over-generalized outlier rules remove much-needed visibility into whatever market activity does exist.

The most notable two events, in my mind, for the day were the utter lack of volume (no new BIT sellers), and a significant increase in the volume of Bids at $65. The amount increased as the day went on.

That said, in 3 days we have _not_ exploded upwards. It would take a single 1000 share seller to put the 50000 share Maxim order at $35 to the top of the list.

I played it safe, took the 50% gain with most of my remaining stake, and called it a day.

Continuing to watch with interest.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
A pumpkin mines 27 hours a night
These kinds of incidents and errors look just like things programs written for Computer Science 101 classes would produce. This isn't some minor rounding error anymore - if true, someone has messed this up big time!

Have you seen the BitGo integer overflow error? (BitGo gave to a lucky user a javascript tool to recover BTC from an old-format wallet.  The tool had an integer overflow bug that would send at most 232 - 1 satoshi (~40 BTC) to the destination output, leaving everything else as transaction fee.  Fortunately the miner was nice and returned the ~80 BTC fee to the user.)

Yeah, heard about that one. Overflow bugs are always very weird things to watch. It totally makes sense for such a bug to be undiscovered in a recovery tool or something like that, but it's not as if the trading engine of Finex has only been live for a day by now. Still, I'd be very interested in seeing what actually happened here (if anything happened, actually!)
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
How did GBTC react to the dump? Could they be added to chartbuddy? We need to know the REAL price for BTC. Why can´t i find their REAL price on any other exchange? Could somebody please explain again? I don´t understand!   Embarrassed

GBTC data from OTCQX page at end of each day:

Date             day's price range      day's volume
---------------+----------------------+-------------
2015-05-04        37.98 --   42.00               765
2015-05-05        55.00 --   94.86               435
2015-05-06         N/A  --    N/A                125


According to a post on the SecondMarket Observer thread, when OTCQX updates the GBTC quote page, it ignores any trades smaller than 100 shares (10 BTC).  That is why the daily price range for today is shown as "N/A--N/A" ("not available") even though 125 shares were traded today.  Also, OTCQX has the same working hours as NYSE.

I don't think one can get better data from other sources; they can only get it from OTCQX.  Paying clients of OTCQX apparently have access to the trade log; perhaps someone can find some such client who would leak some hints...

EDIT: by the way, OTCQX is not like an ordinary stock or bitcoin exchange.  They seem to be more like a central database that collects and merges information from registered brokers; it is the brokers who keep the client's shares and execute the trades.  Right?
hero member
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legendary
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How did GBTC react to the dump? Could they be added to chartbuddy? We need to know the REAL price for BTC. Why can´t i find their REAL price on any other exchange? Could somebody please explain again? I don´t understand!   Embarrassed


A couple of friends and me, we are selling bitcoins back and forth to each other for over 1 thousand a piece every time we meet in the evening. This is the real price of bitcoin. You don't need bitfinex and other shit exchanges like MadrigalCX and GBTGBC exchanges for a price discovery.
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
These kinds of incidents and errors look just like things programs written for Computer Science 101 classes would produce. This isn't some minor rounding error anymore - if true, someone has messed this up big time!

Have you seen the BitGo integer overflow error? (BitGo gave to a lucky user a javascript tool to recover BTC from an old-format wallet.  The tool had an integer overflow bug that would send at most 232 - 1 satoshi (~40 BTC) to the destination output, leaving everything else as transaction fee.  Fortunately the miner was nice and returned the ~80 BTC fee to the user.)
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