Failure to get above the 30d MA line during the last two rallies is a pretty good indication that the downtrend from $300 still has steam left and will probably test the 78.6 fib level. That's the lowest Fibonacci point, the "line in the sand" if you will. If we break it, watch out. Volume is low as the trading range from January to now is working itself out to completion (to be expected), so it wouldn't be difficult to achieve some panic.
To start the bull engine we either need more demand or liquidate until fewer people hold a larger amount of coins (bought from panic sellers) to reduce supply. A final big shakeout of early adopters and miners below $200 would clear the way for a big bull move.