Why would you need a hedge against inflation when the government is doing such a great job and everything's fine?
The inflation rate in Brazil was recorded at 8.13 percent in March of 2015.
That's inflation (specifically, consumer price index increase) in March extrapolated for the whole year. It is still less than the nominal inflation of bitcoin (~9%/year) and MUCH less than the actual change in consumer price index of bitcoin (135%/year in 2014).
Inflation Rate in Brazil averaged 386.20 percent from 1980 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 6821.31 percent in April of 1990
Right, but who was complaining about cherry-picking time windows? Since the irresponsible profligate demagogical Keynesian socialists came to power in 2003, inflation has been around 5%/year. Did I say that it was less than bitcoin's nominal inflation of 9%/year?
But you also have to acknowledge the fluctuations brought about by currency wars. At least since 2000 the Reais has gone from 2:1 to 1:1 approx and since 2010 (when Mantega called it out) it has worsened. Point is, the US Fed's policies have effected all EM's in regards to IR's, debt to gdp, balance sheets etc; bitcoin may have it problems but you're just attempting to shoot down bitcoin on all fronts.
But the past performance is not the real problem. The problem with bitcoin is that it is a ticket to a lottery with unknown prizes and odds. There is no way of even assigning rough probabilities to its value next month being in any range whatsoever. It may go to zero in a few days, it may go "to the moon", who knows.
What we do know is that the Top Experts in bitcoin have not the foggiest idea of what the price will do, either. And what I have learned so far tells me that each of the past bubbles were caused by distinct sources of demand that are already exhausted; so the occurrence of a future larger bubble depends on another source of demand with greater magnitude -- which no one can tell whether or when it will appear.
This is widely acknowledged by all and sundry and I don't think it's a condemnation or a validation. It's an experiment and the first time anything like this, challenging a belief, system and process, has happened. Who knows?
Therefore, selling bitcoin as a hedge against anything, or as good investment, is scamming, pure and simple. Trying to sell it to the Third World poor, by telling them that it will make them rich, is a crime against humanity. If you need another million fools to buy your coins and pay for your Lamborghinis, at least look for them among the wealthy, thank you.
I agree with some of this, but would expand to
anyone who believes either the bull or bear perma pitch - 'instant riches' or 'bitcoin is dead $0.00' tomorrow' - is equally foolish. But, you can see bitcoin as a hedge or not; maybe some will liquidate btc for cover in the case of a non bitcoin crisis (which would accelerate any downswing) but others many buy in to have something 'off grid' / safe from bail-ins.
We haven't really seen how bitcoin performs during a real downturn or a genuine full economic upturn. All we've seen is it operating in exceptional monetary circumstances - QE, Currency Wars, legal no-mans-land, use case 'busts', tapering, Cyprus bail-ins.
