We are, pretty much, right on track. If you look from the bottom recovery a few months ago, and draw an averaging line, we have hit above, and now below, that line. If we continue up, we'll be 100% right on track to another bull swing.
I hear you brother
To play devil's advocate, I can honestly say that the price is going nowhere without a 'push' higher from some high net worth people. It certainly won't come from Joe Public, as all they have to do is look at a 15 month old price chart and go "Eh, oh hell no! No sign of life, and might still be falling further."
We need an uptrend to show on the charts for many more months, maybe a year, before Joe Public starts to take interest again. Or we need a surprise pump that catches people off-guard (like in 2011, and Jan 2013).
Sad but true.
i disagree
i have lots of friends that i've been informing about bitcoin for a while now, none of them bought, they all wish they did, and they've been thinking of buying ever since the bubble, but we're fearful of buying because i was saying things like
"bear market"
I've told them it was a good buy at 400, months ago, but they didn't buy.
its one thing to say I'll buy some, and its an other thing to actually set up an account get verified and transfer money
I bet if i pushed a little i could get them to buy a few off me right now,
I keep telling them to make an account and buy in slowly, but this is to difficult for them, i'll have to be there dealer.
I plan to show them the "use bitcoin anywhere paypass is accepted" thing ( I should have a account of that when beta is ready )
they will see first hand how easy it is to buy stuff with bitcoin, by then the bull market will be self evident, i figure i can easily get them buying 300-400$ coins at that point. ( which is a very nice entry point if you ask me, 32,000$ in < 2 years poeple...)
the things i do to make sure my friends make sound investment decisions... unbelieveable.
The thing is, for people that don't know anything about bitcoin, but are curious, they will buy purely based on emotion. Your friends will see the price flying high (on a pump), have this 'ah ha' moment where they say "Adam must have been right all along!", struggle to quickly get their accounts set up, struggle to get their first purchase made (and perhaps denied because a false 'high risk' flag gets tripped), yada yada, and finally by the time their first purchase goes through, the price will have tripled from whence it started It will probably rise from there, and they will continue to hold and pat themselves on the back for finally joining the 'wealthy elite gentlemen' club.
And then comes the inevitable crash, out of nowhere. But maybe they will still hold. The only sad thing is, 12-18 months later, the price they paid could well be 50-100% HIGHER than the new low point it may make. And if they held to that point, they would be disappointed and sad, along with many others.
I would argue that PnD'ing bitcoin is bad for bitcoin. It attracts the WRONG kind of people, the "lotto-winner-get-rich-quick" mentality crowd. We need everyone involved, not just the "I'm only buying if it keeps going up" crowd. But it seems that's all we have right now.
On the flip side of that argument though, if all of the Lotto players in the U.S. would instead take that weekly throwaway lotto money to instead bet on bitcoin, OMG you would see a continuous, epic rise in price almost overnight. Sadly though, they actually believe that they have a better chance to win the lotto than win big long term with bitcoin.
