Does everyone realize that taxes are due tomorrow in the US (April 15th)? The recent sell off is obviously miners cashing out to pay taxes. Nothing to worry about.
I thought all miners were Chinese
Lol, that was some f'ed up logic he said.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 22000. (Read 26608198 times)
April 14, 2015, 08:10:40 PM
I thought all miners were Chinese
Lol, that was some f'ed up logic he said.
April 14, 2015, 08:06:58 PM
Does everyone realize that taxes are due tomorrow in the US (April 15th)? The recent sell off is obviously miners cashing out to pay taxes. Nothing to worry about.
I thought all miners were Chinese
April 14, 2015, 08:03:01 PM
Does everyone realize that taxes are due tomorrow in the US (April 15th)? The recent sell off is obviously miners cashing out to pay taxes. Nothing to worry about.
Do you think everyone lives in the US? I remember their population is less than 300 million. World is more than 7 billions.
True but those 300 million control the planet like it or not.
April 14, 2015, 07:59:41 PM
Does everyone realize that taxes are due tomorrow in the US (April 15th)? The recent sell off is obviously miners cashing out to pay taxes. Nothing to worry about.
Oh yeah.
Why do I forget that taxes make the price fall every year?
April 14, 2015, 07:58:27 PM
April 14, 2015, 07:43:07 PM
Does everyone realize that taxes are due tomorrow in the US (April 15th)? The recent sell off is obviously miners cashing out to pay taxes. Nothing to worry about.
I think most have paid them already
April 14, 2015, 07:39:49 PM
Does everyone realize that taxes are due tomorrow in the US (April 15th)? The recent sell off is obviously miners cashing out to pay taxes. Nothing to worry about.
Do you think everyone lives in the US? I remember their population is less than 300 million. World is more than 7 billions.
April 14, 2015, 07:38:56 PM
Does everyone realize that taxes are due tomorrow in the US (April 15th)? The recent sell off is obviously miners cashing out to pay taxes. Nothing to worry about.
April 14, 2015, 07:29:59 PM
April 14, 2015, 07:14:35 PM
a long squeeze will send prices as low as: wanna vote for 190 but there isn't in the list. Voted for 180, still unlikely.
April 14, 2015, 07:10:07 PM
I feel bad for the Winkelvosses
Why? They got billions of dollars.
Because of the whole bitcoin thing
They are still in the green a few thousand percent on their holdings
Ya that must be difficult
Lol, real tough, poor guy.
April 14, 2015, 07:09:25 PM
April 14, 2015, 07:00:18 PM
I feel bad for the Winkelvosses
Why? They got billions of dollars.
Because of the whole bitcoin thing
They are still in the green a few thousand percent on their holdings
April 14, 2015, 06:58:31 PM
April 14, 2015, 06:46:49 PM
I feel bad for the Winkelvosses
Why? They got billions of dollars.
Because of the whole bitcoin thing
April 14, 2015, 06:42:42 PM
haha nice1
This is from The Million Dollar Hotel, maybe one day they can change the name to One Bitcoin Hotel
on topic: bottom it is
April 14, 2015, 06:40:45 PM
Brawker (competitor to Purse.io) closes for lack of customers:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/32lx9j/brawker_shuts_down_because_growth_rate_did_not/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/32lx9j/brawker_shuts_down_because_growth_rate_did_not/
Quote
We are sorry to inform you that we will not be continuing the service any longer. We have tried to keep Brawker running for as long as possible, and put a lot of time and effort into it. However, our growth rate did not meet our expectations, and the service does not scale as we would have expected to. [ ... ]
April 14, 2015, 06:33:25 PM
If we had no speculation, only demand for e-payments, the price would [ be ] P = 5.00 $/BTC only.
The guess T = 14 days assumes that most coins that someone receives in payment for something, or buys to spend, are sold or used to pay for things at various times within one month. (BitPay sells all the coins that they receive within a day or two, for example.)
The guess V = 5 million $/day is based on various bits of evidence that indicate that BitPay has been handling about 1 million $/day of payments over the last year. Since they are believed to be the largest bitcoin payment processor by volume, a factor of 5 seems to be a fair guess for the total volume of e-payments. This estimate includes other processors and raw bitcoin payments, but excludes illegal trade, since that is being curtailed and cannot be relied upon as a sustainer of the price. (Anyway, it seems unlikely to be more than 1 million $/day).
It is not correct to use for V the total USD transaction volume extracted from the blockchain, because most of the latter (probably more than 90%) is movement of coins between wallets that belong to the same person, or that is not payment for goods or services -- such as tumbling, hot/cold wallet flow, deposits and withdrawals at exchanges and similar sites, gambling, etc.
Clearly, the current price (~220 $/BT) is still largely sustained by speculation and speculative holding.
The guess T = 14 days assumes that most coins that someone receives in payment for something, or buys to spend, are sold or used to pay for things at various times within one month. (BitPay sells all the coins that they receive within a day or two, for example.)
The guess V = 5 million $/day is based on various bits of evidence that indicate that BitPay has been handling about 1 million $/day of payments over the last year. Since they are believed to be the largest bitcoin payment processor by volume, a factor of 5 seems to be a fair guess for the total volume of e-payments. This estimate includes other processors and raw bitcoin payments, but excludes illegal trade, since that is being curtailed and cannot be relied upon as a sustainer of the price. (Anyway, it seems unlikely to be more than 1 million $/day).
It is not correct to use for V the total USD transaction volume extracted from the blockchain, because most of the latter (probably more than 90%) is movement of coins between wallets that belong to the same person, or that is not payment for goods or services -- such as tumbling, hot/cold wallet flow, deposits and withdrawals at exchanges and similar sites, gambling, etc.
Clearly, the current price (~220 $/BT) is still largely sustained by speculation and speculative holding.
I like the Money Velocity Theory approach because I can understand it. But I think your estimates are misleading.
IMO:
N = number of coins that are being actively exchanged because they are the only ones that can be part of a velocity equation. At best I'd say N = 3 millions. The rest is hoarded or lost.
T = 14 days looks like reasonable to me, considering the average bitcoiner is likely to do a couple of purchases in a month.
V = use estimated onchain USD transaction volume from blockchain.info = above 40 million USD.
That would give a BTC valuation above 40 * 14 / 3 = 187 USD, which is in line with what I expect.
Note that I was estimating what the price would be if there was no speculation, and therefore no hoarding; i.e. all 14 million coins in circulation, held only for as long as needed to spend all that is earned (or save it by buying some other store-of-value asset, such as gold, real estate, treasury or loan bonds, etc..)
As I noted above, the "estimated USD transaction volume" from blockchain.info is known to be much higher than the volume of e-payments. (At some point, PrimeDice betting alone was 40% of the blockchain traffic, in some metric). We do not know the real number, unfortunately. The little evidence I have seen tells me that it is probably on the order of 5 M$/day.
You cannot trust the number 187 $/BTC because it depends on the amount of holding, i.e. speculation -- and speculation is unpredictable.
April 14, 2015, 06:30:18 PM
I feel bad for the Winkelvosses
Why? They got billions of dollars.
April 14, 2015, 06:25:36 PM
I feel bad for the Winkelvosses
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