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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 22132. (Read 26608579 times)

legendary
Activity: 2833
Merit: 1851
In order to dump coins one must have coins
Pretty sure that 99% doesn't want to fork just to delay the halfing.

That is why the "proof" that "a majoritary mining cartel can't change the protocol" is subjective.

I don't know whether the miners will try to delay the halving (or do some other "sacrilege").  But, if they were to try, my estimate is that less than 10% of the bitcoiners would be furiously opposed to the halving delay, the other 90% will not care, and only the 4-5 miners with 60% of the hashpower will be in favor.  Then these miners will do it anyway; and 99.9% of the bitcoiners will accept the change, including most of those who swore that they would abandon bitcoin if that happened. Because their greed will speak louder than their ideology.

Bitcoiners are incredibly easy to fool if they are told what they want to hear.  They believe that adoption is booming, that the exponential price trend is built-in, that Satoshi was an anarcho-libertarian, that governments cannot stop bitcoin, that Greece may adopt it, that the banks are secretly investing in it, that sidechains will solve all problems of the protocol, that Wall Street whales are holding the price down, that China is irrelevant, that Willy created the last bubble...  

If Antonopoulos tells everybody that postponing the halving will not delay the Apotheosis, and Roger Ver posts a video where he promises that it will be the first and last change to the protocol, and Gavin tweets that he supports the change, and Coindesk and Bloomberg and Forbes and the WSJ assert that it will be a positive development for bitcoin, then 90% of the bitcoiners will believe that it is a good thing, and the rest will pretend to believe it in order to preserve the value of their coins.  Tongue

Huh  Huh so there's incentive for miners to delay the halving, and if they decide to do it they will do it anyway and be successful  Roll Eyes

Do you seriously think that there's over a 50% chance that the halving will be delayed??
legendary
Activity: 2380
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women

I don't know whether the miners will try to delay the halving (or do some other "sacrilege").  But, if they were to try, my estimate is that less than 10% of the bitcoiners would be furiously opposed to the halving delay, the other 90% will not care, and only the 4-5 miners with 60% of the hashpower will be in favor.  Then these miners will do it anyway; and 99.9% of the bitcoiners will accept the change, including most of those who swore that they would abandon bitcoin if that happened. Because their greed will speak louder than their ideology.


Where do you come up with this nonsense? Those 4-5 miners would postpone the halving to sell twice as many coins at less than a quarter the price?  The halving is priced in and if it doesn't happen there will be a crash. Everybody knows this.

Greedy miners are why it WON'T happen. Destroying the value of the thing you sell is just bad business. That's obvious to anyone who doesn't live in an ivory tower.
sr. member
Activity: 574
Merit: 296
Bitcoin isn't a bubble. It's the pin!
The poll is almost split down the middle... I hope we see $300 in two weeks. But who knows...
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Pretty sure that 99% doesn't want to fork just to delay the halfing.

That is why the "proof" that "a majoritary mining cartel can't change the protocol" is subjective.

I don't know whether the miners will try to delay the halving (or do some other "sacrilege").  But, if they were to try, my estimate is that less than 10% of the bitcoiners would be furiously opposed to the halving delay, the other 90% will not care, and only the 4-5 miners with 60% of the hashpower will be in favor.  Then these miners will do it anyway; and 99.9% of the bitcoiners will accept the change, including most of those who swore that they would abandon bitcoin if that happened. Because their greed will speak louder than their ideology.

Bitcoiners are incredibly easy to fool if they are told what they want to hear.  They believe that adoption is booming, that the exponential price trend is built-in, that Satoshi was an anarcho-libertarian, that governments cannot stop bitcoin, that Greece may adopt it, that the banks are secretly investing in it, that sidechains will solve all problems of the protocol, that Wall Street whales are holding the price down, that China is irrelevant, that Willy created the last bubble...  

If Antonopoulos tells everybody that postponing the halving will not delay the Apotheosis, and Roger Ver posts a video where he promises that it will be the first and last change to the protocol, and Gavin tweets that he supports the change, and Coindesk and Bloomberg and Forbes and the WSJ assert that it will be a positive development for bitcoin, then 90% of the bitcoiners will believe that it is a good thing, and the rest will pretend to believe it in order to preserve the value of their coins.  Tongue
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
I'm a miner and I can't wait for the halving to hit.  I'm already fighting for scraps, I'll just have less scraps, but the corporate farms that continue to suck value from bitcoin will get kicked in the nuts.  FINE BY ME!

As a noob can't say i'm waiting for halving, but i'm very curious how things will be after that Grin
I think i'm a bit afraid to get stuck with the hardware because no one person will want to mine at home Roll Eyes
maybe the price will double and mining will be cool for the new guy
legendary
Activity: 2380
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legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
So Trolfi thinks the miners might want to delay the halving in order to have more coins to sell. Ridiculous. A delay would mean a precedent. If there is one delay, there may be more. I would immediately divest myself of my entire holdings and I wouldn't be alone. The miners know this and they won't do something that will crash the price and destroy their livelihood.

Incentives work. The success of this project demonstrates that and it is why the Statist are so rabidly opposed to it.  People have an overwhelming tendency to do what is in their INDIVIDUAL perceived best interest, including the supposed angels who control which way government guns are pointing.




I'm a miner and I can't wait for the halving to hit.  I'm already fighting for scraps, I'll just have less scraps, but the corporate farms that continue to suck value from bitcoin will get kicked in the nuts.  FINE BY ME!
legendary
Activity: 2833
Merit: 1851
In order to dump coins one must have coins
So Trolfi thinks the miners might want to delay the halving in order to have more coins to sell. Ridiculous. A delay would mean a precedent. If there is one delay, there may be more. I would immediately divest myself of my entire holdings and I wouldn't be alone. The miners know this and they won't do something that will crash the price and destroy their livelihood.

Incentives work. The success of this project demonstrates that and it is why the Statist are so rabidly opposed to it.  People have an overwhelming tendency to do what is in their INDIVIDUAL perceived best interest, including the supposed angels who control which way government guns are pointing.




Pretty sure that 99% doesn't want to fork just to delay the halfing.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
So Trolfi thinks the miners might want to delay the halving in order to have more coins to sell. Ridiculous. A delay would mean a precedent. If there is one delay, there may be more. I would immediately divest myself of my entire holdings and I wouldn't be alone. The miners know this and they won't do something that will crash the price and destroy their livelihood.

Incentives work. The success of this project demonstrates that and it is why the Statist are so rabidly opposed to it.  People have an overwhelming tendency to do what is in their INDIVIDUAL perceived best interest, including the supposed angels who control which way government guns are pointing.


legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1186
CCMF!  



Looks like sentiment agrees with you...
Look at those longs! 24.8 million USD swaps



What exchange/site is this from?

bfxdata.com
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
Green daily MACD

A formidable indicator on larger timescales.

For the uninitiated, because learning is more fun than trolling:

Quote
MACD

Developed by Gerald Appel in the late seventies, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence oscillator (MACD) is one of the simplest and most effective momentum indicators available. The MACD turns two trend-following indicators, moving averages, into a momentum oscillator by subtracting the longer moving average from the shorter moving average. As a result, the MACD offers the best of both worlds: trend following and momentum. The MACD fluctuates above and below the zero line as the moving averages converge, cross and diverge. Traders can look for signal line crossovers, centerline crossovers and divergences to generate signals. Because the MACD is unbounded, it is not particularly useful for identifying overbought and oversold levels.
legendary
Activity: 2380
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newbie
Activity: 17
Merit: 0
Opened long at 245. One week's pay.
legendary
Activity: 1281
Merit: 1046
Stability is not good.
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
CCMF!  



Looks like sentiment agrees with you...
Look at those longs! 24.8 million USD swaps



What exchange/site is this from?
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1186
CCMF!  



Looks like sentiment agrees with you...
Look at those longs! 24.8 million USD swaps

legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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