Sentiment-wise, the fact that the longs haven't really budged much may indicate that they are the strong hands in this case.
Strong hands = profitable traders, experienced chart readers, well-capitalized, logical, non-emotional
Weak hands = newb traders, gamblers, simple indicator-based analysis, panicky, easy to shake out
Strong hands = profitable traders, experienced chart readers, well-capitalized, logical, non-emotional
Weak hands = newb traders, gamblers, simple indicator-based analysis, panicky, easy to shake out
That's a biggie.
Good traders are good because they know how to manage risk. They won't risk 100% or their account on a margin trade. 50% is max, so if you have 10btc in your trading account you risk 5. That's a 15btc position if you're on 3:1.
My reading of it is all based around an interpretation of the bitcoin "hodl" philosophy. At this stage my understanding is most of the recent bull run accumulation was done 220s - 240s (I don't have a chart, but the one below might help
)There is a quote here, at the bottom of this thread:
https://www.tradingview.com/v/RyzPvDn8/
Quote
This can't possibly bode well with respect to the 236 support. It's bound to be tested over the next 7 days, and judging from how weak BTC has been in the face of almost all support, I don't have high hopes. But I'm not selling my long position yet because in my experience, it is right after that when the thing turns around and RIPS. So basically I have no idea what to do.
This, as far as I can read, is the sort of mentality most bitcoiners have. It fits neatly with loss aversion: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion
It also fits neatly with the fact that trading experiences, impatience and inability to trust ones decisions can all have a psychological toll (I know this from personal experience, as I'm sure most traders do from some stage in their lives).
I assume that most bitcoiners on the whole are not experienced traders, and they have had their past experiences mostly painted with success. The best strategy has been, by and large, to hold. These past lessons paint present actions. Also, psychologically the risk of securing a loss by selling is more damaging than holding on for the potential of future gains. In general statistically speaking people sell winners too soon, and hold losers too long.
I wonder what will happen around the 220 mark and below to all the longs. I noticed they twitching today at last...
In short I think you are giving the whales, and the masses, too much credit
