Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 22351. (Read 26610008 times)

Coin
Explanation

Just go ahead, take it as a practise in forming your arguments against the ten or so common misunderstandings about bitcoin. Just do it for you, and when you are satisfied, ignore him. He is a troll.

I don't like your upper line, your pennant looks very much like we're going down to me 

 so I drew a new one 



Not likely but if the price could break and hold above 265, we might make another try for 300... (I'd give this only a 20% chance of happening / 80% chance we'll get real flat on low volume and then a big dump out of nowhere, like usual  )

I'm throwing in the towel. He has far more time to waste than I do, and is off the wall. Back to ignore.

JorgeStolfi may not realize what he is explaining is not applicable to BTC but rather the current global economic reality. Why the rich "winners" get richer and the poor "losers" get poorer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btSrp8ZSqGM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btSrp8ZSqGM&t=230 euro disobedience

Durchfall tickles me

PS. Is bitcoin ded uguise?? Maybe we can rebrand as a drone enthusiast forum. The kids will eat it up.

so boring people start to pump their altcoins here again  

btw. it's really funny to read german words in english sentences  

I don't know what you mean by "pegged". 

To a first approximation, if the dollar lost 90% of its value tomorrow, the US would not become significantly poorer.  Everybody woudl still own the same homes and cars and tamagochis, the same bridges and roads would still be there,  barbers and doctors would still serve as many patients as before.  By hypothesis, all prices would go up 10 times, and thus all salaries and fees would have to do the same.  (In the countries with hyperinflation, most people manageto survive somehow).

Such a massive devaluation would have plenty of secondary bad effects, for sure.  There would be all sorts of financial disasters due to contracts with fixed payments in the future, dollars held by or owed to foreign parties, etc.. People would need to carry and use a lot more banknotes when paying in cash.  The devaluation presumably would be due to massive emission of new currency by the government, which would result in wealth being taken from citizens, as a form of global tax on money holdings and unindexed credits.  It is these secondary effects that make high inflation and hyperinflation so bad.

But it is precisely because of the possibility of inflation, money printing, and wild excursions in currency exchange rates that one should ignore the money when evaluating a nation's wealth, and focus only on actual things and services.

Of course, central banks and economists who are interested in the money itself, rather than real wealth, will have a different approach.

Coin
Explanation

trolfi puts a lot of effort into it.

Getting really fucking bored of all this sideways action & a year long bear market.
Can/will anything drive the price massively up?
Seems an age since we had a respectable BTC price.

Shadow is rising with the fall of Evo the dark markets are thirsty

http://www.wired.com/2015/03/evolution-disappeared-bitcoin-scam-dark-web/

Shadows time is now. Buy cheap while you can.


Dark is changing it's name to DASH to steer clear of the dark markets.

The balls in Shadows court.

Please don't repost all of stolfis literary durchfall

Edit: thx

i dont think your explanation of wealth pegged to real products works.

(hyper)inflation of national currencys which in the aftermath destroyed whole nations show the opposite.

/edit my bad

As I have explained several times before: When you are computing your personal wealth, or the wealth of a company, or even the wealth of a city, it is proper to count banknotes, bank deposits, stock certificates, treasury bonds, and other tokens as wealth, together with the market value of your real wealth -- cars, buildings, furniture, jewelry, etc.  That is because such tokens can be exchanged with people outside the unit (you, the company, etc.) for additional real wealth.

However, when evaluating the wealth of a whole country, or of the whole world, it is wrong to include the tokens that cannot be exchanged with anyone outside that larger unit.   Just as you cannot count the chips issued by a cassino, at face value, as part of the cassino's capital.

Thus, when considering the cost of mining at the global scale, one must look first at the real wealth that is destroyed or created; not at the destruction or creation of of dollar bills and bank balances, which is of course zero.  Mining actually consumes electricity, that could be used to light homes or make aluminum; and electronic equipment, that must be discarded after a year or two of service.  Assuming that mining now must be barely profitable, if at all, we can estimate the dollar value of this consumed wealth as being close to 1 million dollars per day.  That is, the real cost of mining is roughly equivalent to demolishing half a dozen houses in my neighborhood, every day.

On the other hand, we defintely must consider the flows of wealth-representing tokens (mainly dollars and bitcoins) to estimate the transfers of real wealth between the various players.  The flows include the amounts paid and received by traders, the profits of miners, the fees charged by banks, bitcoin exchanges, etc..  However, in order to see the concrete effects of those flows, we must eliminate the tokens at the end of the analysis, and focus on the changes in the real wealth of the individuals that they imply.

Specifically, it is certain that, each average day, the "bitcoin system" must remove more than one million dollars worth of real wealth from some set of "losers", who end the day with less real wealth than they had a day before.   As said above, the system destroys somewhat less than 1 M$ of real wealth per day, in the form of electricity, equipment, and other goods and services that are irrecoverably consumed by mining and other activities such as running the exchanges; and that wealth ultimately must come from the "losers".  The rest of the wealth that is removed from "losers" goes to increase the real wealth of:
* the miners (as mining profits),
* the exchanges and other bitcoin service companies (as fees),
* another set of people, the "winners",  who find themselves richer than they were a day before.

Today's "losers" may become "winners" tomorrow, and then they may recover some of the wealth that they lost, and perhaps even become wealthier than they were before.  But, at the global and individual level, the things will not balance in the end; quite the opposite.  Again, as a whole, the bitcoin system takes almost 1 million dollars worth of real wealth per day from the losers, and destroys it.   Individually, the sets of winners and losers will tend to grow, and the wealth gained by the winners will keep increasing, and the wealth lost by the losers will keep increasing even faster.

Winners who leave the system with a profit, and do not come back, will never become losers; so the wealth that they took from the losers will never return to them.   As I said before, there seems to be no data at all on the magnitude of this "pyramid effect" of the bitcoin system, the amount of wealth it transfers from losers to winners (besides what gets destroyed or passed on to miners and skimmers).  However, we now that many people have left the system with considerable gains.  Given the volume of bitcoins that get traded each day, on the exchanges and privately, I would guess that the losers lose at least 1.5 M$/day, and the winners gain at least 0.5 M$/day.  Does anyone have a better estimate?


Trade was more complicated than now, because there were many more currencies in circulation, and the relatively slow communication channels made their relative values more uncertain.  However, the accountants of the Spanish Empire, for example, used a stadardized currency unit -- the "maravedi" -- from the late 1400s into the 1600s and beyond.  Originally it was a copper coin, but the maravedi remained in use as unit of accounting for a century or more after the coins disappeared from circulation.  Thanks to that standardization, and the extensive bureaucracy of the Empire, we can now learn, for example, how much Columbus's expedition cost, and how expensive it was in relation to the cost of other things.

I'm not an expert but does anyone else observes a pennant? I calculate about 2 more hours till it closes. Up or down, I really can't tell.

They don't have trading fees on OKcoin do they? I guess a lot of the trades there are easily faked, so I wouldn't trust whatever trading volume they claim to have.

Coin
Explanation

okcoin with higher 24h volume than bitfinex 

100,000,000 MH/s required to generate 1 BTC / day

BTC is way under priced