Coin
Explanation
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 22543. (Read 26607528 times)
March 08, 2015, 12:59:16 AM
March 08, 2015, 12:40:37 AM
I would think that, in China, money is steadily leaving the system: Chinese traders seem to be gradually selling and taking their cash out of the exchanges. This feeling is not based on the exchange volumes, but simply becuse of the decay of the China bubble (which seems to be too fast to be due to miner dumping alone). The rest of the world should still be a net buyer, but there is no data, really, and apparently it can barely absorb what the Chinese and the miners are selling.
There is no "money" entering nor leaving the bitcoin system. Bitcoin is money, so is USD, CNY etc. What happens is that value moves from one money system to another. When the revaluation of money system is not the same in all actors' minds, there has to be trades. If all actors at the same time and to the same degree change their valuations, there need not be many trades.Indeed you are right, there is no USD or CNY in the "bitcoin system", so there is no sense saying that money is going into or out of it. I should have said instead that, in my opinion, more and more Chinese traders must be selling their holdings for whatever others want to pay, and dropping out.
March 08, 2015, 12:31:48 AM
wHERE'S MY MOTHERFUCKING sATURDAY NIGHT DISCOUNT??
I'm as disappointed as you are. Shameful
March 08, 2015, 12:24:05 AM
wHERE'S MY MOTHERFUCKING sATURDAY NIGHT DISCOUNT??
March 08, 2015, 12:18:54 AM
I have some extra fiat... buy now or wait for a dump?
Seems you will be waiting forever then. You should get in now. Only good news have been coming lately.
March 08, 2015, 12:14:44 AM
I have some extra fiat... buy now or wait for a dump?
The mind plays tricks on us.
Here is some proof.
Is the A square and the B square the same shade?
March 07, 2015, 11:59:24 PM
March 07, 2015, 11:22:01 PM
I have some extra fiat... buy now or wait for a dump?
You can probably get a better average from waiting a bit.
March 07, 2015, 10:59:17 PM
March 07, 2015, 09:59:24 PM
March 07, 2015, 09:54:47 PM
I'm skeptical about comparing zero fee volume to non-zero fee volume.
To be clear: for short to mid term trading purposes, I absolutely don't doubt the relevance of CNY volume.
But for the longer term view of market volume, in my opinion, the "costly" volume of the three big USD exchanges is a good measure of how much money is "flowing into the market". (Sidenote: I really need to include Coinbase from now on)
That said, I know just discarding CNY (or permanently zero-fee USD) volume is not ideal. I have been trying to come up with ways to 'discount' the Chinese volume by some factor to make it comparable, but nothing ever really came out of it that looked satisfying to me.
To be clear: for short to mid term trading purposes, I absolutely don't doubt the relevance of CNY volume.
But for the longer term view of market volume, in my opinion, the "costly" volume of the three big USD exchanges is a good measure of how much money is "flowing into the market". (Sidenote: I really need to include Coinbase from now on)
That said, I know just discarding CNY (or permanently zero-fee USD) volume is not ideal. I have been trying to come up with ways to 'discount' the Chinese volume by some factor to make it comparable, but nothing ever really came out of it that looked satisfying to me.
Is there a relation between exchange volume and the amount of money coming into the system (or being drained from it)? Volume is generally up when the price is changing, up or down; and that may be cause and effect at the same time. But figuring ot the net input money flow seems to be a complicated computation at least...
I would think that, in China, money is steadily leaving the system: Chinese traders seem to be gradually selling and taking their cash out of the exchanges. This feeling is not based on the exchange volumes, but simply becuse of the decay of the China bubble (which seems to be too fast to be due to miner dumping alone). The rest of the world should still be a net buyer, but there is no data, really, and apparently it can barely absorb what the Chinese and the miners are selling.
There is no "money" entering nor leaving the bitcoin system. Bitcoin is money, so is USD, CNY etc. What happens is that value moves from one money system to another. When the revaluation of money system is not the same in all actors' minds, there has to be trades. If all actors at the same time and to the same degree change their valuations, there need not be many trades.
March 07, 2015, 08:59:58 PM
I have some extra fiat... buy now or wait for a dump?
March 07, 2015, 08:59:17 PM
March 07, 2015, 08:38:22 PM
People predicting a dump?
I see nothing to suggest a price drop other than paranoid speculation regarding what people do with the auction coins.
I see nothing to suggest a price drop other than paranoid speculation regarding what people do with the auction coins.
how about the 20 mn. USD margin long on Bitfinex ?
14 million of which never even batted an eyelid during a massive crash down to 160..Long interest was 30 million last year. Perspective.
Does that not imply that we will might get lower than 160? At some stage they will need to be closed. If you take a price of 250 USD this would relate to 80.000 coins.
i do not believe we are ready to buy our boats yet .. instead i think we will see lows again before the next auction. today is the 'MIT pump' and that is why we stay high but as soon as no one is looking down we will go again ... this intelligence comes from rock solid observations ... and gimpple is staying low below .03 because they are gimped atm...the obamaturd making them wait a long long time. stellar is broken and cannot be useful because their ceo is goxxed .... u might can maybe find some usefulness from LTC on tuesdays and every other thursdays ..
March 07, 2015, 08:16:51 PM
People predicting a dump?
I see nothing to suggest a price drop other than paranoid speculation regarding what people do with the auction coins.
I see nothing to suggest a price drop other than paranoid speculation regarding what people do with the auction coins.
how about the 20 mn. USD margin long on Bitfinex ?
14 million of which never even batted an eyelid during a massive crash down to 160..Long interest was 30 million last year. Perspective.
Does that not imply that we will might get lower than 160? At some stage they will need to be closed. If you take a price of 250 USD this would relate to 80.000 coins.
March 07, 2015, 08:06:29 PM
thanks for that. That was new to me !
I am aware of this thread about the state of the MtGOX bankruptcy, there may be other threads here or in other forums. However, there is not much more information in that thread than what is available at the former MtGOX site, now controlled by the trustee.
Most documents in that site are in Japanese, but they generally include a good (non-official) English translation. Just keep scrolling the PDF file.
March 07, 2015, 07:59:17 PM
March 07, 2015, 07:51:33 PM
March 07, 2015, 07:46:56 PM
The Gox thing is not exactly an auction. It will be Gox giving back some of the customer's BTC/money. Considering that there is still no hint about how the owned amount will be calculated, I think anything that we are taking very late in this year
You are right this is not an auction. But it will surely create supply. I know what I am going to do with the coins distributed to me... no matter how high the payout will be.The trustee will get a fat paycheck and will spend a few million on consultants and other services, but most of the 200'000 BTC and cash will be distributed.
Indeed it is not known yet how the claims will be computed, nor who will be allowed to claim. It is very likely that claimants will have to fully identify themselves; if nothing else, to exclude the former management and relatives, and perhaps users connected to fraudulent trading, if any are identified.
It is also not known yet whether the BTC can be returned as BTC, or whether they will have to be auctioned and all payments will have to be in JPY. The trustee seems willing to return the BTC, and, if that is possible, Kraken will probably handle the distribution; but the Court will have to approve the refund plan, and the law may not allow BTC payments. In any case, the trustee has until September 2015 to validate all the claims, so the distribution cannot begin until then. If the Court and trustee opt for an auction, it could occur before that date, though.
thanks for that. That was new to me !
March 07, 2015, 07:32:39 PM
The Gox thing is not exactly an auction. It will be Gox giving back some of the customer's BTC/money. Considering that there is still no hint about how the owned amount will be calculated, I think anything that we are taking very late in this year
You are right this is not an auction. But it will surely create supply. I know what I am going to do with the coins distributed to me... no matter how high the payout will be.The trustee will get a fat paycheck and will spend a few million on consultants and other services, but most of the 200'000 BTC and cash will be distributed.
Indeed it is not known yet how the claims will be computed, nor who will be allowed to claim. It is very likely that claimants will have to fully identify themselves; if nothing else, to exclude the former management and relatives, and perhaps users connected to fraudulent trading, if any are identified.
It is also not known yet whether the BTC can be returned as BTC, or whether they will have to be auctioned and all payments will have to be in JPY. The trustee seems willing to return the BTC, and, if that is possible, Kraken will probably handle the distribution; but the Court will have to approve the refund plan, and the law may not allow BTC payments. In any case, the trustee has until September 2015 to validate all the claims, so the distribution cannot begin until then. If the Court and trustee opt for an auction, it could occur before that date, though.
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