Drop to $250? Anyone?
I think this will keep going sideways for a while.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 22551. (Read 26607322 times)
March 07, 2015, 06:46:45 AM
March 07, 2015, 06:12:30 AM
Drop to $250? Anyone?
We still need to touch that 315 top again to confirm downtrend
Dont thing were going down, in any case it would be the 255 area
March 07, 2015, 05:59:19 AM
March 07, 2015, 05:43:16 AM
Drop to $250? Anyone?
March 07, 2015, 04:59:23 AM
March 07, 2015, 04:33:12 AM
Local buy and local sell today...... wheres the price going to go....
March 07, 2015, 04:06:35 AM
Sideways is almost as good as up. Every 24 hours I believe in the reversal more.
+40$ -30$ +40$ -30$, we could get to 300$ and stay over 300$ at this rate. Until it falls again or until it goes to 500$, 700$, 1000$ again ?
March 07, 2015, 03:59:29 AM
March 07, 2015, 03:19:34 AM
Sideways is almost as good as up. Every 24 hours I believe in the reversal more.
March 07, 2015, 03:07:15 AM
My theory: The prediction works because people make decisions based on some weird number-juggling lines which eventually confirms the prediction... maybe. If not lines are redrawn. Even from a math background I don't understand how you expect to predict the future based on the past of a mostly random system?
That's my theory too. I just want to know which lines those people base their decisions on, because they have money and are buying and selling bitcoins.In the case of the major downward line, though, if it gets broken, then it is self-evident that the crashing is at least slowing down. This would be a positive sign, because the market isn't completely random, but self-reinforcing. Less crashing can lead into even less crashing and eventually an uptrend.
March 07, 2015, 02:59:23 AM
March 07, 2015, 02:53:08 AM
This market is splashed around too much by whales with their own motives to take too much stock in TA. Thankfully we have a professor with academic interest only to run regressions against the aftermath.
Now now, dont be so pessimistic about the market. It has been recovering already.
Pessimism is in the eye of the beholder. I thought my statement was rather neutral.
March 07, 2015, 02:37:33 AM
This market is splashed around too much by whales with their own motives to take too much stock in TA. Thankfully we have a professor with academic interest only to run regressions against the aftermath.
March 07, 2015, 02:26:14 AM
"some events". you can always draw some lines somewhere and find "some events"
That's true. The important question is if a substantial number of traders are making decisions based on linear trend lines or not. I'm not sure at this point.My theory: The prediction works because people make decisions based on some weird number-juggling lines which eventually confirms the prediction... maybe. If not lines are redrawn. Even from a math background I don't understand how you expect to predict the future based on the past of a mostly random system?
March 07, 2015, 02:25:22 AM
Ya'll probably seen this by now: it seems we know the auction price was at least >$221.51, according to this report.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/19512/us-marshals-auction-participant-price-not-significantly-market/
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/19512/us-marshals-auction-participant-price-not-significantly-market/
March 07, 2015, 02:24:18 AM
"some events". you can always draw some lines somewhere and find "some events"
That's true. The important question is if a substantial number of traders are making decisions based on linear trend lines or not. I'm not sure at this point.To me it looks like we broke over these lines. Let's move on people it's a new day for Bitcoin!
'coinbase pump' greater than 'auction pump' ... we have another auction looming...i'm not convinced.
March 07, 2015, 02:17:14 AM
A multiple-bubble descriptive model of bitcoin price
Preliminary version
[ click on the graph for a full-size version. ]
This plot show a model (green irregular line) for the historic series of daily BTC prices (gray irregular line) as the sum of "simple bubbles". The reddish-brown line at value about 1 is the ratio of the model and the actual price.
In each "simple bubble", the price grows exponentially with some rate r1 until a maximum value P at some date d1, then stays constant until some date d2, then decays with some rate r2. In most bubbles the dates d1 and d2 are equal, so there is no flat part between the exponential rise and the exponential decay.
The model is the sum of several of those "simple bubbles", each with its own parameters r1,d1,P,d2,r2. They are the triangular or trapezoidal lines in the plot.
Although each "simple bubble" mathematically extends infinitely in the past and in the future, it is relevant only for some limited interval of dates that includes d1 and d2. Outside that interval, it is too small compared to the sum of the other bubbles, and it could even be assumed to be zero, without a perceptible change in the model.
I believe that each "simple bubble" in this model, or set of consecutive bubbles, corresponds to the opening of some market, distinguished by geography, national borders, application, community, etc. For example, the two "simple bubbles" labeled "SH1" and "SH2" are probably due to surges of demand in China created by BTC-China in Shanghai. The four "simple bubbles" labeled "BJ0" to "BJ4" are almost certainly due to the adoption of bitcoin by the amateur commodity speculators in Mainland China, especially via OKCoin and Huobi in Beijing. Bubble "BJ0" models the basic demand of that market, while bubbles "BJ2" to "BJ4" model the extra demand that was turned on and off by the PBoC rumors and anti-rumors in early 2014.
The "simple bubble" model does not try to reproduce the oscillations of the price that occur at the end of a sharp rise.
The parameter P of each bubble represents its contribution to the price between d1 and d2. It is not proportional to the demand of BTC by the corresponding market, because the effect on price of a given demand depends on the amount of BTC available for trading, and that amount must have been decreasing as the price increased.
In the log plot, the exponential rise and fall of each bubble, plotted by itself, are straight diagonal lines; the rates r1 and r2 define their slopes. When the bubbles are added together, however, the rise and fall get distorted, and appear curved in the plot.
The raw prices (gray line) are the weighted mean prices in each UTC day. These raw prices and the simple bubbles were smoothed with a 15-day Hann window.
Preliminary version
[ click on the graph for a full-size version. ]
This plot show a model (green irregular line) for the historic series of daily BTC prices (gray irregular line) as the sum of "simple bubbles". The reddish-brown line at value about 1 is the ratio of the model and the actual price.
In each "simple bubble", the price grows exponentially with some rate r1 until a maximum value P at some date d1, then stays constant until some date d2, then decays with some rate r2. In most bubbles the dates d1 and d2 are equal, so there is no flat part between the exponential rise and the exponential decay.
The model is the sum of several of those "simple bubbles", each with its own parameters r1,d1,P,d2,r2. They are the triangular or trapezoidal lines in the plot.
Although each "simple bubble" mathematically extends infinitely in the past and in the future, it is relevant only for some limited interval of dates that includes d1 and d2. Outside that interval, it is too small compared to the sum of the other bubbles, and it could even be assumed to be zero, without a perceptible change in the model.
I believe that each "simple bubble" in this model, or set of consecutive bubbles, corresponds to the opening of some market, distinguished by geography, national borders, application, community, etc. For example, the two "simple bubbles" labeled "SH1" and "SH2" are probably due to surges of demand in China created by BTC-China in Shanghai. The four "simple bubbles" labeled "BJ0" to "BJ4" are almost certainly due to the adoption of bitcoin by the amateur commodity speculators in Mainland China, especially via OKCoin and Huobi in Beijing. Bubble "BJ0" models the basic demand of that market, while bubbles "BJ2" to "BJ4" model the extra demand that was turned on and off by the PBoC rumors and anti-rumors in early 2014.
The "simple bubble" model does not try to reproduce the oscillations of the price that occur at the end of a sharp rise.
The parameter P of each bubble represents its contribution to the price between d1 and d2. It is not proportional to the demand of BTC by the corresponding market, because the effect on price of a given demand depends on the amount of BTC available for trading, and that amount must have been decreasing as the price increased.
In the log plot, the exponential rise and fall of each bubble, plotted by itself, are straight diagonal lines; the rates r1 and r2 define their slopes. When the bubbles are added together, however, the rise and fall get distorted, and appear curved in the plot.
The raw prices (gray line) are the weighted mean prices in each UTC day. These raw prices and the simple bubbles were smoothed with a 15-day Hann window.
March 07, 2015, 01:59:23 AM
March 07, 2015, 01:43:14 AM
To me it looks like we broke over these lines. Let's move on people it's a new day for Bitcoin!
We did, but I don't consider it very notable.Breaking these lines would be notable:
March 07, 2015, 01:23:57 AM
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