Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 22731.

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: molecular on March 01, 2015, 05:36:24 AM

You're forgetting the large group of people who do not think about Bitcoin price at all.

You mean, those who will buy bitcoin for ideological reasons, at any price? They must all have all run out of money, because they are not buying for 255$, either.

billyjoeallen

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Hide your women

Where's my weekend discount? Or is this the weekend discount?

molecular

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Quote from: NotHatinJustTrollin on March 01, 2015, 05:39:03 AM

Quote from: molecular on March 01, 2015, 05:36:24 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 01, 2015, 04:15:16 AM

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 03:59:56 AM

1. I am not advocating buying at the top of the rally, I am advocating buying right now. When it goes past $500, you are probably too late.
2. $10 million is nothing to hedge funds, retirement funds, etc. There will be be buying pressure right after the auction and long after.
3. People are going to be sick that they missed out on buying bitcoin at these prices. My advice is to buy what you can afford or forever regret. You are lucky to even know what it is at this point.

Well, the price being 252$, it means that everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$. The latter think that the changes of it being worth more than 1300$ anytime in the next few years are much less than 20%.

You're forgetting the large group of people who do not think about Bitcoin price at all.

Like the folks on r/bitcoin who scream "to the moon" during pumps but argue that "price doesn't matter" during dumps?

No, the people that are just not interested enough to care about Bitcoin at this point.

NotHatinJustTrollin

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★Bitvest.io★ Play Plinko or Invest!

Quote from: molecular on March 01, 2015, 05:36:24 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 01, 2015, 04:15:16 AM

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 03:59:56 AM

1. I am not advocating buying at the top of the rally, I am advocating buying right now. When it goes past $500, you are probably too late.
2. $10 million is nothing to hedge funds, retirement funds, etc. There will be be buying pressure right after the auction and long after.
3. People are going to be sick that they missed out on buying bitcoin at these prices. My advice is to buy what you can afford or forever regret. You are lucky to even know what it is at this point.

Well, the price being 252$, it means that everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$. The latter think that the changes of it being worth more than 1300$ anytime in the next few years are much less than 20%.

You're forgetting the large group of people who do not think about Bitcoin price at all.

Like the folks on r/bitcoin who scream "to the moon" during pumps but argue that "price doesn't matter" during dumps?

Norway

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 01, 2015, 05:07:31 AM

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 04:50:09 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 01, 2015, 04:48:29 AM

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 04:16:46 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 01, 2015, 04:15:16 AM

Well, the price being 252$, it means that everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$. The latter think that the chances of it being worth more than 1300$ anytime in the next few years are much less than 20%.

I don't know where you get the stat but I feel sorry for them.

It is not a survey, just math. If anyone with money to invest thought that the chances of BTC hitting 1300$ in the next 2 years were higher than 20%, they should buy it even for 300$. But they aren't, so...

Why not 19% or 21%?

Just rounded the number. To get a more accurate value one should consider also the chances of it reaching 1200 but not 1300, 1100 but not 1200, 1000 but not 1100, etc. Then one would get much less than 20% for "will get above 1300".

The 20% number is the upper bound, assuming that those buyers consider only two possibilities: "will get higher than 1300$ sometime in the next 2 years" or "crashes to 0$ right after I buy it, and stays there forever". Then p*1300 + (1-p)*0 < 255, which gives p < 255/1300. If they are considering other cases besides those two (which of course they are), then p must be even less than that.

Anyway, note that it is what "the market" must be thinking, not what I think.

Great to see somebody doing their own math! Too many people trust other peoples numbers. And too many people who are trained in math, do not dare to make their own calculations!

molecular

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 01, 2015, 04:15:16 AM

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 03:59:56 AM

1. I am not advocating buying at the top of the rally, I am advocating buying right now. When it goes past $500, you are probably too late.
2. $10 million is nothing to hedge funds, retirement funds, etc. There will be be buying pressure right after the auction and long after.
3. People are going to be sick that they missed out on buying bitcoin at these prices. My advice is to buy what you can afford or forever regret. You are lucky to even know what it is at this point.

Well, the price being 252$, it means that everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$. The latter think that the changes of it being worth more than 1300$ anytime in the next few years are much less than 20%.

You're forgetting the large group of people who do not think about Bitcoin price at all.

JorgeStolfi

hero member

Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 04:50:09 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 01, 2015, 04:48:29 AM

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 04:16:46 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 01, 2015, 04:15:16 AM

Well, the price being 252$, it means that everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$. The latter think that the chances of it being worth more than 1300$ anytime in the next few years are much less than 20%.

I don't know where you get the stat but I feel sorry for them.

It is not a survey, just math. If anyone with money to invest thought that the chances of BTC hitting 1300$ in the next 2 years were higher than 20%, they should buy it even for 300$. But they aren't, so...

Why not 19% or 21%?

Just rounded the number. To get a more accurate value one should consider also the chances of it reaching 1200 but not 1300, 1100 but not 1200, 1000 but not 1100, etc. Then one would get much less than 20% for "will get above 1300".

The 20% number is the upper bound, assuming that those buyers consider only two possibilities: "will get higher than 1300$ sometime in the next 2 years" or "crashes to 0$ right after I buy it, and stays there forever". Then p*1300 + (1-p)*0 < 255, which gives p < 255/1300. If they are considering other cases besides those two (which of course they are), then p must be even less than that.

Anyway, note that it is what "the market" must be thinking, not what I think.

ChartBuddy

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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Coin

Explanation

rolling

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...and now back to your regularly scheduled program of lambchop (and his many many alts), nothatinjustrollin, yourmother, and the rest of the daily trolls.

rolling

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Quote from: calme on March 01, 2015, 04:51:30 AM

If too many ppl end up running in the streets stealing cars to buy BTC, then it could create too much sell pressure on the used car industry and run the price down. So while I recommend that millions of you do it, I can't morally recommend tens of millions.

Now that's funny!!!

calme

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Activity: 392

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If too many ppl end up running in the streets stealing cars to buy BTC, then it could create too much sell pressure on the used car industry and run the price down. So while I recommend that millions of you do it, I can't morally recommend tens of millions.

rolling

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 01, 2015, 04:48:29 AM

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 04:16:46 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 01, 2015, 04:15:16 AM

Well, the price being 252$, it means that everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$. The latter think that the chances of it being worth more than 1300$ anytime in the next few years are much less than 20%.

I don't know where you get the stat but I feel sorry for them.

It is not a survey, just math. If anyone with money to invest thought that the chances of BTC hitting 1300$ in the next 2 years were higher than 20%, they should buy it even for 300$. But they aren't, so...

Why not 19% or 21%?

JorgeStolfi

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Activity: 910

Merit: 1003

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 04:16:46 AM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 01, 2015, 04:15:16 AM

Well, the price being 252$, it means that everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$. The latter think that the chances of it being worth more than 1300$ anytime in the next few years are much less than 20%.

I don't know where you get the stat but I feel sorry for them.

It is not a survey, just math. If anyone with money to invest thought that the chances of BTC hitting 1300$ in the next 2 years were higher than 20%, they should buy it even for 300$. But they aren't, so...

rolling

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Quote from: calme on March 01, 2015, 04:39:22 AM

Oh shit, is it really going to $1500 tonight? I have some stuff I could pawn off to buy in quick. Have your families do the same. Hell, you could even do a smash & grab on a store or just run around in the street with a gun stealing cars

It could very easily. I'm telling my family. I have a moral responsibility to do so.

rolling

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Quote from: octaft on March 01, 2015, 04:34:59 AM

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 03:59:56 AM

1. I am not advocating buying at the top of the rally, I am advocating buying right now. When it goes past $500, you are probably too late considering fiat deposit times.
2. $10 million is nothing to hedge funds, retirement funds, etc. There will be be buying pressure right after the auction and long after.
3. People are going to be sick that they missed out on buying bitcoin at these prices. My advice is to buy what you can afford or forever regret. You are lucky to even know what Bitcoin is at this point in its evolution.

1. Didn't say you did. I said thinking like yours, and bear in mind I was talking about your "$1500 overnight" comments. Price is not at all likely to go to $1500 overnight.
2. "Right after the auction and long after" is not "overnight." Again, I was responding to "$1500 overnight" comments.
3. Eh, nothing really to say to that, other than time will tell.

Time will tell about everything. People are very short sighted. I'm trying to point out that leaving sell orders overnight is a bad idea and many were caught with their pants down in the last real rally. Selling any bitcoin in my opinion at these prices is just plain irresponsible.

calme

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Oh shit, is it really going to $1500 tonight? I have some stuff I could pawn off to buy in quick. Have your families do the same. Hell, you could even do a smash & grab on a store or just run around in the street with a gun stealing cars

octaft

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Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 03:59:56 AM

1. I am not advocating buying at the top of the rally, I am advocating buying right now. When it goes past $500, you are probably too late considering fiat deposit times.
2. $10 million is nothing to hedge funds, retirement funds, etc. There will be be buying pressure right after the auction and long after.
3. People are going to be sick that they missed out on buying bitcoin at these prices. My advice is to buy what you can afford or forever regret. You are lucky to even know what Bitcoin is at this point in its evolution.

1. Didn't say you did. I said thinking like yours, and bear in mind I was talking about your "$1500 overnight" comments. Price is not at all likely to go to $1500 overnight.
2. "Right after the auction and long after" is not "overnight." Again, I was responding to "$1500 overnight" comments.
3. Eh, nothing really to say to that, other than time will tell.

rolling

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Quote from: bclcjunkie on March 01, 2015, 04:18:23 AM

i'll revisit this thread for lolz later, in the meantime keep up your enthusiasm because i'll need a hardworking porter like you when that imaginary rally comes.

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 03:59:56 AM

Quote from: octaft on March 01, 2015, 03:54:51 AM

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 03:43:37 AM

Quote from: octaft on March 01, 2015, 03:41:01 AM

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 03:32:25 AM

There are so many scenarios where entirely more than $10 million enters the market overnight.

While nothing is a certainty in this world, I'd say the odds of someone dumping 10 million onto an exchange and slamming market buy with every last dime of it are slim to none. If someone had $10 million they wanted to put into bitcoin, they would probably be bidding in the upcoming auction, or buying off-exchange.

...and when they lose the auction, that is exactly what they will do. Maybe not a market order. But certainly a lot of buying pressure after the auction. There will be days in the near future where $10 million per day will be a drop in the bucket. Feel free to save this post and recirculate in the coming months.

One, thinking like yours is what makes people panic buy at the top of rallies. Two, you originally said "$10 million enters the market overnight," not "a lot of buying pressure after the auction."

Quote from: calme on March 01, 2015, 03:53:49 AM

We need to be shooting for 100% of m2 then. Fuck those other currencies.

Yeah good luck with that.

1. I am not advocating buying at the top of the rally, I am advocating buying right now. When it goes past $500, you are probably too late considering fiat deposit times.
2. $10 million is nothing to hedge funds, retirement funds, etc. There will be be buying pressure right after the auction and long after.
3. People are going to be sick that they missed out on buying bitcoin at these prices. My advice is to buy what you can afford or forever regret. You are lucky to even know what Bitcoin is at this point in its evolution.

First, replys go at the bottom of the previous post. Second, you won't revisit/repost this later because it will make you look like a fool.

bclcjunkie

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i'll revisit this thread for lolz later, in the meantime keep up your enthusiasm because i'll need a hardworking porter like you when that imaginary rally comes.

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 03:59:56 AM

Quote from: octaft on March 01, 2015, 03:54:51 AM

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 03:43:37 AM

Quote from: octaft on March 01, 2015, 03:41:01 AM

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 03:32:25 AM

There are so many scenarios where entirely more than $10 million enters the market overnight.

While nothing is a certainty in this world, I'd say the odds of someone dumping 10 million onto an exchange and slamming market buy with every last dime of it are slim to none. If someone had $10 million they wanted to put into bitcoin, they would probably be bidding in the upcoming auction, or buying off-exchange.

...and when they lose the auction, that is exactly what they will do. Maybe not a market order. But certainly a lot of buying pressure after the auction. There will be days in the near future where $10 million per day will be a drop in the bucket. Feel free to save this post and recirculate in the coming months.

One, thinking like yours is what makes people panic buy at the top of rallies. Two, you originally said "$10 million enters the market overnight," not "a lot of buying pressure after the auction."

Quote from: calme on March 01, 2015, 03:53:49 AM

We need to be shooting for 100% of m2 then. Fuck those other currencies.

Yeah good luck with that.

1. I am not advocating buying at the top of the rally, I am advocating buying right now. When it goes past $500, you are probably too late considering fiat deposit times.
2. $10 million is nothing to hedge funds, retirement funds, etc. There will be be buying pressure right after the auction and long after.
3. People are going to be sick that they missed out on buying bitcoin at these prices. My advice is to buy what you can afford or forever regret. You are lucky to even know what Bitcoin is at this point in its evolution.

rolling

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on March 01, 2015, 04:15:16 AM

Quote from: rolling on March 01, 2015, 03:59:56 AM

1. I am not advocating buying at the top of the rally, I am advocating buying right now. When it goes past $500, you are probably too late.
2. $10 million is nothing to hedge funds, retirement funds, etc. There will be be buying pressure right after the auction and long after.
3. People are going to be sick that they missed out on buying bitcoin at these prices. My advice is to buy what you can afford or forever regret. You are lucky to even know what it is at this point.

Well, the price being 252$, it means that everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$. The latter think that the changces of it being worth more than 1300$ anytime in the next few years are much less than 20%.

I don't know where you get the stat but I feel sorry for them.

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 22731. (Read 26715131 times)