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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 22837. (Read 26713010 times)

legendary
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Strange, yet attractive.
TLDR: Anyway, having lived under both neocon and socialist-Keynesian governments, I am now all for the latter, sorry.  I cannot understand how any country could believe that "austerity" is a good thing.  I would vote for Lula and Dilma again if I could.  I hope that the new Greece government can be as successful as Lula's -- in spite of not being led by a semi-illiterate mechanics worker...

I am with you. I think they did a good job.

Still I wonder, when people will realize, that there is no right or wrong. Most things are right at the right time.

A Keynesian government seems just right to increase overall living standards in emerging countries.

In the western world the main problem is not raising living standards, but over-consumption of scarce ressources.

Reading all these posts concerning Greece, I chose -on purpose- not to reply (especially to those colourful ones from BillyJoeAllen concerning his dreams of buying a Greek island that the government SHOULD sell; 'cause debt Grin... ).

The above comments are the essence of it all. That's what Syriza administration is looking for and they will -hopefully- manage to get it from the EU. The alternative scenario is (sadly) far worse and will cost a lot more to everybody.

Greece will just have to declare a full default and get back to 70s-80s financially - but that's EXACTLY what already happened the last 5 years with the current austerity measures; on the other hand other countries in line will probably follow "the new paradigm" and default to their own private monetary system. Bye Bye EU.

Besides, there are a couple of "good will" neighbours that will urge to "help" Greece in exchange for some space in the Aegean... Don't you love (geo)politics?

Anyway; today's the day. My bets are that they will figure it out peacefully.
legendary
Activity: 2380
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
8up
hero member
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TLDR: Anyway, having lived under both neocon and socialist-Keynesian governments, I am now all for the latter, sorry.  I cannot understand how any country could believe that "austerity" is a good thing.  I would vote for Lula and Dilma again if I could.  I hope that the new Greece government can be as successful as Lula's -- in spite of not being led by a semi-illiterate mechanics worker...

I am with you. I think they did a good job.

Still I wonder, when people will realize, that there is no right or wrong. Most things are right at the right time.

A Keynesian government seems just right to increase overall living standards in emerging countries.

In the western world the main problem is not raising living standards, but over-consumption of scarce ressources.
sr. member
Activity: 471
Merit: 250
TLDR: Anyway, having lived under both neocon and socialist-Keynesian governments, I am now all for the latter, sorry.  I cannot understand how any country could believe that "austerity" is a good thing.  I would vote for Lula and Dilma again if I could.  I hope that the new Greece government can be as successful as Lula's -- in spite of not being led by a semi-illiterate mechanics worker...

http://bastiat.org/en/twisatwins.html
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003

I know economics. From my vantage point, [ Varoufakis is ] not a bond villain or Jesus or Inspector Cluseau. He's an idealist as only an academic can afford to be (wink, wink, Jorge). It's this idealism that will be his undoing and unless he discovers his inner sociopath, he will get the blame for the Grexit.  He is full of intellectual hubris but he underestimates how truly viscous and evil his opposition is.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think he's fighting monsters and is ill-equipped to do so. Of course if by some miracle he triumphs, he will almost certainly become a monster himself. The world doesn't need another socialist martyr. I hope he doesn't become one.

Lula was a mechanics worker who did not finish high school.  When he was elected president he got to manage a financially broken country with humongous public debt.  The only bright spot was the new currency (real) which had been created to end hyperflation (more precisely, to exchange it for hyperindebtment)  and had managed to lose "only" 50% of its value wrt the dollar in the previous four years.  To get elected he had to pledge that he would not default on the public debt, nationalize the public companies that the previous neocon president had donated to friends privatized, or break the real.

To everybody's surprise he managed to do all that and still do a lot of his party's socialist agenda, such as improve the standard of living of the poorest, raise the minimal pay, open over a 100 new public universities, improve state health care, etc.  As a result the economy boomed, he was relected, and he ended with a 80% approval -- including from big industry and commerce sectors.  His biggest feat was in 2008, when the international financial crisis struck the world.  Instead of following the neocon/IMF recipe -- "cut social spending and give the taxpayers money to the failed private banks" -- he had the state banks to give cheap loans to industries directly, on condition that they did not fire any employees and did not cut pay.  As a result Brazil simply did not feel the 2008 crisis at all.  Leaders around the world openly praised him for that -- but did not dare imitate him, of course.

Lula's  popularity was such that he got to make his successor, the first woman president in our history.  She was his Energy minister an totally unknown at the time, bypassing (and upsetting) many party elders.  Now, when a strong man picks his successor, the result is usually a disaster, because he usually chooses a yes-man who is actually unable to lead.  Although Dilma was not as charismatic as Lula, she turned out to be a strong leader by herself and quite able to navigate the politics without relying on Lula. 

Dilma is well-intentioned and capable, but she has however three things going against her. First, she has an economics degree, and therefore does not understand economics as well as Lula did.  In particular, she seems unable to understand any goal that cannot be expressed in money terms.  For example, Lula's minister of Culture had started a reform of the copyright legislation that would include the notions of fair use and of public domain works.   Dilma's minister on the other hand was just a prop for the record industry, and tossed those plans as soon as she took office.  Apparently Dilma did not understand that "culture" is not measured by the profit of the publishers...

Dilma also tries to be nice to the media establishment.  Lula completely ignored them, never gave exclusive interviews or hobknobbed with media tycoons, stopped reading newspapers after being elected, and even prohibited his ministers from mentioning news in cabinet meetings.  He also ordered a redistribution of public advertising budget to favor small local newspapers and radios instead of the big conglomerates.  The big media hated him for that and did all they could demonized him, but to no avail.  I personally admire him most for that.  Dilma however does not seem to have his nerve; she undid this distribution policiy in part, has granted some exclusive interviews, and has appeared on big-time TV, in Oprah-like shows and panels. All in vain, because the media still hates her as much as they hated Lula.

Finally, Dilma (like Obama) does not have the personal public support that Lula had, and therefore she has to cede to her party, and to the allied-but-not-friendly parties in her coalition, in many ways.  She had to put up with many thoroughly incompetent ministries because of that. 

Besides big media, Dilma also got the hatred of the big banks, because she tried to lower he prime rate to something slightly less than obscene.  Media and banks led the campaign against her re-election (and the black bloc vandalism before the World Cup, which they tried hard to sabotage).  Yet she managed to barely win a second term, because (thank God) the opposition candidate was a disaster, detested even by his own party.

Besides the media and banking opposition, she has now also has to cope with the OPEC oil dumping and with a record El Niño drought, which will badly hurt the country's finances.  Let's hope for the best...

TLDR: Anyway, having lived under both neocon and socialist-Keynesian governments, I am now all for the latter, sorry.  I cannot understand how any country could believe that "austerity" is a good thing.  I would vote for Lula and Dilma again if I could.  I hope that the new Greece government can be as successful as Lula's -- in spite of not being led by a semi-illiterate mechanics worker...
legendary
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#1 VIP Crypto Casino
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
... Nothing is happening its just a good ol comedia dramatica.

Slow l'y but surely, This is just going to end up in misery and death.
Like if anyone cares anyway.


Are you talking about this thread?  If so, well put!

Lol Grin
sr. member
Activity: 378
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... Nothing is happening its just a good ol comedia dramatica.

Slow l'y but surely, This is just going to end up in misery and death.
Like if anyone cares anyway.


Are you talking about this thread?  If so, well put!
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
Ordinarily I might agree with you, but Greece can't possibly have economic recovery under present terms. Servicing their debt is sucking too much money out of their economy. Syrzia (sp?) can try to deflect blame (for breaking campaign promises), but you can't fill empty bellies with rhetoric, so they will fail.

[barges in]

True. Problem is, "growth destroying austerity" isn't the main item on the menu in the EU anymore. For a decent summary of that sentiment (in a Greek newspaper even)

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_16/02/2015_547315

In the beginning of the crisis, Germany and the rest of the "Northern" bunch played austerity hardball, to reign in the overspending of some of the EZ members. Which had the desired effect (primary budget surplus).

But that's pretty much old news by now. Even the stodgy Germans (or their government Mutti) understand that, at some point, more than spending cuts are needed. See: Draghi's QE, Juncker's growth spending plan (even if it's mostly symbolic, it's a change of tone then). I mean, even German newspapers nowadays focus more on the fact that Greece has a huge tax evasion problem among their upper income bracket than the notion that they can't keep their budget in check.

Problem is, Syriza can make a damn good living on going on about the old news, since that's what still gets people in Greece riled up - and to some degree, understandably so: for the lower and middle class, life sucks in Greece. What I don't get is why they don't direct their anger towards those who really are at the center of their problem: their richest few, who escape taxation and have gone through the crisis pretty much unaffected.

Meh. True problem is we (as in we, humble occidentals..) got fucked up elites. Totally disconnected from reality. Keynes and other freakin dogmas rulling your poor ass.

Grèce is already backing down. Nothing is happening its just a good ol comedia dramatica.

Slow l'y but surely, This is just going to end up in misery and death.
Like if anyone cares anyway.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
Ordinarily I might agree with you, but Greece can't possibly have economic recovery under present terms. Servicing their debt is sucking too much money out of their economy. Syrzia (sp?) can try to deflect blame (for breaking campaign promises), but you can't fill empty bellies with rhetoric, so they will fail.

[barges in]

True. Problem is, "growth destroying austerity" isn't the main item on the menu in the EU anymore. For a decent summary of that sentiment (in a Greek newspaper even)

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_16/02/2015_547315

In the beginning of the crisis, Germany and the rest of the "Northern" bunch played austerity hardball, to reign in the overspending of some of the EZ members. Which had the desired effect (primary budget surplus).

But that's pretty much old news by now. Even the stodgy Germans (or their government Mutti) understand that, at some point, more than spending cuts are needed. See: Draghi's QE, Juncker's growth spending plan (even if it's mostly symbolic, it's a change of tone then). I mean, even German newspapers nowadays focus more on the fact that Greece has a huge tax evasion problem among their upper income bracket than the notion that they can't keep their budget in check.

Problem is, Syriza can make a damn good living on going on about the old news, since that's what still gets people in Greece riled up - and to some degree, understandably so: for the lower and middle class, life sucks in Greece. What I don't get is why they don't direct their anger towards those who really are at the center of their problem: their richest few, who escape taxation and have gone through the crisis pretty much unaffected.
legendary
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Whales dumping on the enthusiastic kids that bought bitcoin because of the CNN news. I love it!
sr. member
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...
Bitcoin is here to surprise you...

Good morning, gentlemen.  How will you surprise us today?

legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
This game is over for the bears.
1 Day MACD about to go positive!

week?

Weekly MACD is about to go green, daily MACD is about to go into positive territory which is not the same. Could see a big daily green candle soon unless this gets denied hard by the bears. Bears are looking weak though.
legendary
Activity: 1540
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alan watts is all you need
This game is over for the bears.
1 Day MACD about to go positive!

week?

Has to start somewhere. 1day >3day > Weekly
full member
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This game is over for the bears.
1 Day MACD about to go positive!

week?
legendary
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
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Legendary trader
This game is over for the bears.
1 Day MACD about to go positive!
legendary
Activity: 1106
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Hide your women
BFX BTC swaps are down. Some bears must be cutting losses on their puts. Game theory: the first defectors win, just like Switzerland dropping the Euro peg. Sucks to be you, Riksbank.
legendary
Activity: 1106
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Hide your women
This is why it is so fascinating. The most logical thing for them to do is to default HARD on that debt, start from a clean slate, and we will all be vacationing in Greece next year due to the affordable prices. The Greeks are already in the worst case senario, it can't get much worse economically - the only place where it can get worse is that the Greke population may take a haircut on their savings by converting to Drachmas. If I was in charge of Greece, and I was brave enough, I'd default.



That would be the logical thing to do. Unfortunately for Greece, their politicians got in on pledging to end austerity. Which means more spending which means more borrowing. Something has to give. They can't even inflate their way out of it *and* remain in the Euro. It won't be pretty. Though if it ends with everyone fleeing the Euro, that would be a good thing.

I still think the greeks have the best poker cards. No politician want to expose that every state is insolvent. My guess is, they will extend more loans, make it look (to greeks) that they won (their national dignity, which seems like an important thing), make it look (to germans) that it cost them nothing. Using the standard politician newspeak, inventing a new meme to sign it off. Bad solution, risk up, eventually the general market will tear apart either the euro or the EU or both.


We've already covered that many times. If Greece gets better terms, then every other deadbeat country will want them too. I think the new Greek government promised what they can't possibly deliver: a debt writedown, end of austerity AND staying in the Euro. No way they do all three. No way their is no pain for Greeks. Very difficult for Greeks not to blame Tsipras and Veroufakas when the pain comes. Very likely they will get replaced by either banker toadies or far right reactionaries.

I don't think the terms matter. Only the words, which are spoken for effect.


Ordinarily I might agree with you, but Greece can't possibly have economic recovery under present terms. Servicing their debt is sucking too much money out of their economy. Syrzia (sp?) can try to deflect blame (for breaking campaign promises), but you can't fill empty bellies with rhetoric, so they will fail.
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