What many traders are missing now is the significance of the selling climax to $160, and the subsequent retest of that area. It is an enormous sign of strength for that many coins to have been transferred from weak hands to strong. I keep hearing "the downtrend is still intact!" Well, technically it is, but you'd better have a close look at that super high volume area that stopped the selling, or you're ignoring a big message the market is trying to tell you.
I don't think most of those coins went from weak to strong hands. They went from bulls getting margin calls to people who will flip them for a quick profit. I think there is a short squeeze coming, but that doesn't mean that I think the bear market is over.
Could be. But the chart doesn't lie. Bulls may have been margin called but that would have contributed to the selloff as their long liquidation would sell into market.
Someone stepped in to stop the selling, cover their shorts and scoop up those coins, or else the market would have gone lower. Somebody was willing to buy in hopes to sell at a higher price later. Simple logic there.
Also important and related (and slightly off topic)... a bulls market's success is defined by how much selling (supply) is introduced into it. Conversely bear markets are successful because there is not enough buying to stop the selling and bring supply/demand into equilibrium. Now if the "Four Punch Raiders" are ultimately bullish, it makes sense to remove as much selling as possible so to not impede their pumping. They need to corner the market, essentially owning most if not all of the floating supply. When you think about this, it is logical... remove enough supply from the market--price wants to go up. Increase enough supply--price goes down. If you were bullish and trading with huge sums, you'd be annoyed if dumpers dumped into your rally too
Also you wouldn't accumulate a large position out in the open, you'd do it silently, spread out over time at market bottoms. Conversely at market tops, the big money distributes slowly over time (or quickly, I've seen both) to new buyers for huge profits. When this additional supply enters the market, it crashes and the game begins again. 3600 coins introduced by miners every day is not much compared with the bats some of these guys are swinging with. And who knows what % of those 3600 coins even make it to exchanges.
I think we agree on the direction the market is ultimately headed, but in my opinion, the "Four Punch Raiders" are simply good traders who can read price/volume action, and join the other good traders on big moves. Judging from some of the sizes of their orders, they are making an absolute killing. Can't say I can complain--I have joined them. My trading lot size is not small and has increased substantially over the last few months. But that's how professional traders aim to do things, they have to accumulate from weak hands and scare the public in to selling to them, then it's easy to mark the price up later on. It's pretty predatory, but such is life. I think so many traders lose money because they simply don't know what's happening behind the scenes and don't understand why the market goes up and down so much... but watching the volume can give you a pretty good indication when the deep pockets are involved. In Wall Street these are usually pit traders, market makers, specialists--guys close to the action with great insider connections. With Bitcoin it is likely early adopters who understand the trading game, guys close to exchanges, trading syndicates, and people involved in mining circles and news sites who get market-changing announcements and rumors before anyone else.