Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 23566. (Read 26714057 times)

Bitfinex

Bitstamp

Explanation

It is an important tool used by many bears.

It was complicated. Reads like a bull trap

indeed and then loose the faith of the community and go bankrupt for what?

People that adopt BTC as a trading platform should understand that many Bitcoin participants from all over the world with great minds are working on the tech to satisfy ego, rather then the speculative opportunities.

Weeeelll, yes, all the top 4 companies would have to collude in order to launch a 51% attack (e.g. to take 100% of the rewards, by ignoring blocks mined by other miners and thus orphaning them).

Dumper finished.

Crook managed to get more than a guv paper thief would get on every $.

Even digital bank robbers do better with Bitcoin.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/031004.asp
Market Reversals And How To Spot Them
By Matt Blackman

What's a 'reversal'

You could say the same about bulls and the price going up when we hit $1000. I remember reading posts like "look at these idiots selling at $900." Someone who yells "up-up-up" and "to-da-moon" all the time is no more a genius when the price rises than a so-called "doom-and-gloomer" is when the price drops.

And in the bull case, it's not even a question anymore that they were wrong, considering we never hit $10k/$100k/$onemillionbillionquadrillionk. We're still in the process of figuring out if the doom-and-gloomers are correct, and honestly, I think we have a way better chance of them being correct relative to hitting 100k or whatever ridiculous prices bulls were shouting back when the bubble was inflating.

OK, I cannot say much about the "common bitcoiner".    I have yet to meet one in person.  However, judging by what they post on forums and twitter, they behave like Amway reps at their worst.  (I don't know how it is in the US, but in the 1990s Amway started an aggressive MLM scheme down here, that forced the courts to intervene.).  They push bitcoin even to people who cannot possibly understand the risks, even their own family members. 

It is hard to believe that those bitcoiners are doing so because they firmly believe that it is a good investment.  People who buy Apple stock or Treasury bonds do not try convincing everybody else to do so.  The self-interest is obvious: every bitcoiner knows that his profit depends on lots of other people buying the thing for more than he bought it.

But my comment above was mostly directed to bitcoin entrepreneurs and other Famous Persons in the bitcoin commuity.  I have yet to see one such person that I could suspect of being honest and sincere.   Many of them must know that their optimistic predictions and one-sided descriptions of bitcoin are bullshit.  Many of them are revealed as crooks by their past (and by their lack or remorse or shame about it).


YEs, of course, scammers and criminals will use whatever currency they find appropriate.  But the fact is that they love bitcoin, much more than cash or any other payment method, for obvious reasons.   Look at the current epidemic of ransomware, for example: that "business" would hardly be viable if it were not for bitcoin.
[/quote]

You're asking what the delta on a 200 strike put is?  I don't  know how to calculate but you can calculate using black scholes formula

Well, most of them are ignored because they failed to make any argument whatsoever. Just saying price is going to 0 over and over is not an argument.

1.4 odds would be something like 71%, too low?

just only 1.4?  really?

If I would speculate on some facts I would look at perhaps a new mining option offered by https://megabigpower.com/ running new Bitfury hardware.

The key is that when it becomes profitable to buy BTC vs hardware, business opportunities do present themselves.

As far as the bear market shorting works even for newbies on a downtrend. How many will be able to cope with a reversal?

I recall there are some sites where you can bet on BTC price range, right? Kinda like bookies who offer crypto market lines.

I would guess the odds of btc going below 200$ would be something like 1.4, this looks about right to me.

how high do you guess are the chance to go sub $200?

Even when stupid people are right, it does not make ignoring them a bad option at all.

The price going down does not automaticly give every troll out there a credit and make them smart and all knowing.

Stamp had some big buys earlier. I think whatever has been in motion is too strong to stop now. It just needs to play out.

To me the ignore option is a way to weed threw the wheat vs the shaft in this thread, and then if they feel they have missed something then open up the floor to the "other" perspective.

I just wanted to add.

I remember playing a game called Bards Tale. There was a chapter in the game where the hero had to listen to confined prisoners in order to free them. However only 1 truly knew the answer. Yet the other 2 made such a convincing argument that they were correct.

If you ended up listening to the one that actually knows the sequence then all the prisoners would not die.

IF you are a bull or bear, be humble and KNOW THIS. Hindsight is 20/20.