Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 23642. (Read 26711956 times)

legendary
Activity: 2833
Merit: 1851
In order to dump coins one must have coins
Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.

Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November.

And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling".  But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price.

And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out.

This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year.  That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc.  

It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands".  Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day.  In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price.



Selling BTC1k is not sustainable, you must have coins to sell coins, sooner or later that source will dry up. Supply of BTC3.6k/day will drop 50% in one year as intended. Both points suggest that bear market will end at certain time even if demand doesn't rise but stays constant, where these points will meet is the true question.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Funny part is that people seems to forgot, that Bitcoin price can double in less than month with not a big problem.

We saw already many rallies. Worrying about low price is just waste of time.

Sit back, relax. get money to buy more BTC. That's all.



I have to agree...panicking is not the answer.

Even if BTC goes to fractions of a dollar it can bounce back to $10,000 the following year.

BTC is not controlled by any bank or government agency...it's value can be anything.

I think if people stopped treating BTC like fiat there would be a lot less panic.
sr. member
Activity: 344
Merit: 250
Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels  Cry seems like no one wants to trade at these prices.
It's a weekend and Bitstamp is likely to have a fiat shortage right now. I don't get why China thinks a weekend is a good time to dump aside from manipulation.
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.

Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November.

And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling".  But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price.

And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out.

This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year.  That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc.  

It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands".  Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day.  In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price.


@JorgeStolfi
Looking on a chart should be according to the respective timescale. Time is of the essence my friend.
I'd propose to take a look here: https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?showDataPoints=false×pan=356days&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0

Makes a difference when you look it from different perspective, no?
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
Few people actually seem to think this is the bottom despite the low prices, that's what leads me to believe we are entering a bullmarket right now. I still think we should have 1 last leg down though
legendary
Activity: 3122
Merit: 1538
yes
The best solution for low prices is low prices. At some point in this decline, demand will pick up. Holding fiat ready...
legendary
Activity: 2833
Merit: 1851
In order to dump coins one must have coins
Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels  Cry seems like no one wants to trade at these prices. Looks like China is dragging everyone down, over 2% spread between Hooboy and Finex. Well the good part is these low prices should fuck up the centralized miners who i'm guessing are behind these daily 2k dumps trying to stay afloat. Free market at it's best
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.

Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November.

And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling".  But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price.

And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out.

This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year.  That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc.  

It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands".  Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day.  In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price.

newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
most post-bubble bagholders would sell as soon as they can break even if they could  to get out of this mess
That's actually one of the bigger issues of the near future.

That's not even a problem.

Let them sell. Others will buy.

I don't see a problem. People are selling Bitcoin every day.
People are buying Bitcoin every day.
People are dumping Bitcoins every day.

And it will be like this till the end of the Bitcoin/World.
Well those who would dump them are those would are not actually using the BTC but rather holding them to make profit and therefore don't really help btc grow.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 3056
Welt Am Draht
most post-bubble bagholders would sell as soon as they can break even if they could  to get out of this mess
That's actually one of the bigger issues of the near future.

Depends. If their break even is met during what seems like a price explosion, then they're likely to be caught up in the mania and not sell.

If it grinds slowly up for months then perhaps lots of rises will be dampened by people getting out. There's only so many though.
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1199
most post-bubble bagholders would sell as soon as they can break even if they could  to get out of this mess
That's actually one of the bigger issues of the near future.

That's not even a problem.

Let them sell. Others will buy.

I don't see a problem. People are selling Bitcoin every day.
People are buying Bitcoin every day.
People are dumping Bitcoins every day.

And it will be like this till the end of the Bitcoin/World.
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
I got another Bitcoin game:
Guess which exchange promised to reopen in 48hrs and didn't.
You have three guesses, Bitcoiners!

http://i62.tinypic.com/rlmb9s.jpg

Make sure you all take 1 each day
^The way to go
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
most post-bubble bagholders would sell as soon as they can break even if they could  to get out of this mess
That's actually one of the bigger issues of the near future.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
I do not like altcoins and spam.

I do not like that S__ _ __.
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1199
Funny part is that people seems to forgot, that Bitcoin price can double in less than month with not a big problem.

We saw already many rallies. Worrying about low price is just waste of time.

Sit back, relax. get money to buy more BTC. That's all.

donator
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1014
Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.
I do not like altcoins and spam.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
I think the problem with the trolls here is not reading enough Dr. Seuss as children.

Perhaps.  The problem with permabulls is they've never read anything but Undecided
hero member
Activity: 563
Merit: 501
betwithbtc.com
This is the end... grab your ankles and count to ten.
Jump to: