Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November.
And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling". But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price.
And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out.
This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year. That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc.
It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands". Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day. In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price.
Selling BTC1k is not sustainable, you must have coins to sell coins, sooner or later that source will dry up. Supply of BTC3.6k/day will drop 50% in one year as intended. Both points suggest that bear market will end at certain time even if demand doesn't rise but stays constant, where these points will meet is the true question.