Jesus Christ! Do i need to explain it again?
Look there are 4 types of Bitcoin users left:
The consumer: This is a very, very small %. They buy coins and spend them. Regardless of the price.
The bagholder: a small group of delusional idiots who keep yelling that we're about to go up, no matter how bad the market is.
These 2 groups don't control the price.
The 2 other groups do control the price and are the reason we're going down.
The early adopter: this big group of people just keeps cashing out. The smart ones did it early last year, the less smart ones have been doing it the rest of the months and even today.
The trader: by far the biggest group. This is the pump and dump you keep on seeing. Sell high, buy low. But the lows keep getting lower. Right now 270 is high. So guess what, they will take the price to 220 to buy low. They will repeat this all the way to 0.
The group we don't have and which we need are new users. Well, after 6 years we can safely say they won't show up anymore.
That is a good analysis, except that "early adopter" should be "divestor", the guy who sells or spends to reduce his BTC holdings; and the last group should be "The investor" instead of "The trader".
The investor is whoever buys BTC today in exchange of old money, goods, or services,
in order to start or increase his BTC holdings.
The traders are like consumers, they play on both sides of the board: as investors whenever they buy, and as divestors when they sell. Different traders may act more in one role than in the other, depending on how their BTC holdings evolve.
There is one fifth group, The miners. In principle we can assume that they sell 3600 BTC every day at the current market price. Some miners may also play as investors, by retaining some of their coins, or as divestors, by selling saved coins. These two roles can be treated as if they were distinct persons and can be lumped with the non-mining investors and divestors, rspectively.
So, in order to keep the price stable, one should have I = M + D, where I is the amount of new money that the investors take out of their pocket to put into the system in exchange of BTC, M is the amount of money that the miners pocket, and D is the amount of money that the divestors (your "early adopters") pocket. All these quantities should be expressed in USD/day. Goods or services that are directly exchanged for bitcoins should be counted as their market prices in USD.
Today M is known, it is a bit less than 1 M USD/day. There is no way of estimating D, but we may guess 1 M USD/day too. So the investors (recall, people who increase their BTC holdings) must give 2 million USD/day to the miners and the divestors.
The miner's profit is some fraction of M, perhaps still 50%, that is 500'000 USD/day; the other 500'000 day go to mostly to equipment makers and electrical utilites. The profit of the divestors is even harder to estimate than D itself. Of course, only the early adopters among them are making a profit, while divestors who bought since November 2013 are only cutting their losses.
