Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 23715. (Read 26713463 times)

The long USD swaps are ten million dollars below where they were a few months ago. The bid side orderbook is just that, illusory changing window dressing for us  to interpret.

Telling half the story would be me suggesting the price will move up, rather than suggesting a down move is also possible.

Even shorts opened by miners are not held in perpetuity, if the price rises they would be closed and reopened higher. You only hedge against price falls.

Good point!

I think you are doing a bit more than that  . You are only telling half the story by not talking about the bid side that has disappeared. BFX looks like an accident waiting to happen in both directions right now.

Its also worthy of note that at this point these guys are simply refusing to back down and are increasing their bets. I am honestly surprised that we have seen no covering whatsoever. It makes me think about what it might be that I do not know.

this means SHORT on BTC.

I am simply pointing out that short swaps are at an ATH even as the price stays relatively static.

This is an extreme market condition. It doesn't mean the price goes up.

It is very worthy of note as previously a massively high short position precedes a reversal. But this is Bitcoin where the bid side could be the guy shorting

I guess people with BTC tied in stamp will also do some hedging

Can we trust that ??

Of can we trust that there are in nobody out there that knows more about the current situation than we do and is leveraging it to the hilt?

So many unknowns, but you consistently point to the 'open shorts' in the hope of an epic short squeeze. You may very well be right, but be careful interpreting anything you hear or read right now. Many of these short may have so much conviction/knowledge (read insider info) that they are unsqeezable.

I posted in the 'This can't end well thread' - it could very well be that (possibly nervous) miners are becoming more sophisticated as the market matures and the products available increases,and some are actually hedging future output with BFX shorts, as happens all the time in commodity markets. Again, these would be virtually unsqeezable. And it would not be an altogether unsurprising action in the current climate of uncertainty.

And what about the 10k BTC of  bids that have disappeared from the BFX bid side. Leveraged longs may be getting a bit twitchy too.

I have no idea if this or anything I said is happening, just keeping an open mind to what is unfolding as it is possible for the landscape to change very quickly at this time.

ATM it looks like things have turned decidedly bearish and has done since we hit the high last night. We will need to take that out on high volume for me to change my view.



Interesting times ...

As you say they are all unregulated so who truly knows.

We do know that bitstamp has ceased trading and there is no definitive evidence they are insolvent.

Meanwhile btc swaps have passed the 25,000 mark on finex.

But .. but ... but .... it's all fake, ignore it  

Quote from: ElectricMucus on January 08, 2015, 06:54:10 AM

Is it more likely that the trading happening on OKcoin is fake or that Bitstamp is insolvent?
The dumb thing is, we can't know and it could be both, and it could even turn out that Bitstamp is the fake and Okcoin the insolvent one.

Tru dat 

Bitfinex

Explanation

Ok, since nobody here admits they get it,

Is it more likely that the trading happening on OKcoin is fake or that Bitstamp is insolvent?
The dumb thing is, we can't know and it could be both, and it could even turn out that Bitstamp is the fake and Okcoin the insolvent one.

Huobi very bearish, uptrend broken. Down we go.

You're asking what's better ??
A fake exchange means fake volume, fake FIAT, fake Bitcoin.
It's a damn scam.

So, they should be ignored because they set the price? 

Could you please post a worked-out example of how that fake-trade-plus-arbitrage would move the price?

You are assuming that bitstamp is insolvent though.

And any exchange where I can sell 10000 coins to myself and move the price at will, for zero cost, relying on arbitrage to on actual fee paying exchanges to move the price is fraudulent. Chinese exchanges should simply be ignored - as they will when any regulated exchange with a decent market depth comes online. Oh and their orderbooks are fake.

Volatility on its way

15m chart on BTC-e looks very similar to 1w chart

I'm not the one who started using an assumption as a fact.

When did you stop beating your wife?

I love the buzz around here, I just have a hard time believing it. I guess that's just from getting beaten down too long.