Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 23743. (Read 26714044 times)

sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
What makes the situation suspicious is that apparently they usually only kept 3k or so in the hot wallet according to someone who analyzed the address.  Shortly before the "hack" there was a large deposit made into the account making the large theft possible.  How reliable the blockchain analysis is on which the above conclusions are based I do not know but if that happens to be true its hard to imagine how this could be a just a case of a hacked hot wallet.

I just don't understand how bitstamp, one of the worlds leading bitcoin exchanges, can have their wallets compromised to the tune of 19,000 bitcoins. Does this smell like an inside job or a royal screw up?

Perhaps deposits are put directly into the hot wallet, and since the price was plummeting, they were getting a larger than usual amount of deposits?

If it really wasn't an inside job, maybe the person knew about the exploit for a while and was waiting for a price drop so they could snag a larger amount of bitcoins in one go.
legendary
Activity: 1320
Merit: 1007
full member
Activity: 156
Merit: 100
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
Of course! Why didn't I think of this before? Coinbase was using Stamp for liquidity! That meant that if they ran out of coins, they would buy from Bitstamp. They went down because they ran out of coins and had nobody to buy from!

CB is back up now which means they either got coins from selling customers, pulled some of their reserves from cold storage,  or they found a different exchange (BFX or Kracken) from which to buy.

legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 1014
Make Bitcoin glow with ENIAC
full member
Activity: 156
Merit: 100
I'll be happy at $300
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 3962
Merit: 11519
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Have to say I'm surprised I didn't have to tweak the scaling factor between Stamp and Finex. Quite similar market depths there.

I'm impressed by how stable the finex feed is, no more missing data segments, yet.

I wonder if those problems with the stamp feed were some kind of signal or precursor?

You guys are daytrading again, aren't you Roll Eyes

LOL!  Grin

Yup! Been "day trading" ever since 450 CAD

Every payday I trade as much fiat for bitcoin as I can afford to.  Wink

amidoingitright?


You must have a good little stash of BTC, then?  hahahaahahaha    Wink Wink

maybe high cost per BTC, but if the price goes back up, then the average cost per btc will begin to seem cheap.



legendary
Activity: 992
Merit: 1000
It's probably an inside job. But why??? Never underestimate human greed.
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
What makes the situation suspicious is that apparently they usually only kept 3k or so in the hot wallet according to someone who analyzed the address.  Shortly before the "hack" there was a large deposit made into the account making the large theft possible.  How reliable the blockchain analysis is on which the above conclusions are based I do not know but if that happens to be true its hard to imagine how this could be a just a case of a hacked hot wallet.

I just don't understand how bitstamp, one of the worlds leading bitcoin exchanges, can have their wallets compromised to the tune of 19,000 bitcoins. Does this smell like an inside job or a royal screw up?
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
Am I seeing a huge influx of new accounts dedicated to trolling fud or is this just more of the same from this site?
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code
Here's my speculation: Bitstamp has lost almost 19k coins and will either have to buy the coins back somehow or go under. I don't think $5M is enough to really make Stamp go out of business so that means 19k coins will be bought. Meanwhile the hacker is also sitting on almost 19k coins but he will probably be looking to sell those coins off-exchange and he may keep a percentage of coins around for later. So the net effect I think will be that the price is going up short term because Stamp is buying to cover their losses and smart speculators will know and front run that. Once all doubt is cleared about Stamp and they are back in business (which I think is very likely) it's probably rally time for a bit and all the shorts will have to watch out for an epic squeeze. Wink

The next US Marshall's auction might see a keen bidder from Central Europe.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
Here's my speculation: Bitstamp has lost almost 19k coins and will either have to buy the coins back somehow or go under. I don't think $5M is enough to really make Stamp go out of business so that means 19k coins will be bought. Meanwhile the hacker is also sitting on almost 19k coins but he will probably be looking to sell those coins off-exchange and he may keep a percentage of coins around for later. So the net effect I think will be that the price is going up short term because Stamp is buying to cover their losses and smart speculators will know and front run that. Once all doubt is cleared about Stamp and they are back in business (which I think is very likely) it's probably rally time for a bit and all the shorts will have to watch out for an epic squeeze. Wink
sr. member
Activity: 358
Merit: 250
Shorts at Bitfinex 23,617.72 BTC
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
I'm still expecting a plunge to as low as $220, but I'm buying anyway. These prices are just too low to pass up. I just don't think there was enough volume in the bounce off of $255 for it to be a final bottom. Worst case scenario is cascading margin calls that drop us to $200. Unlikely but possible. Ironically Stamp's suspended operations has given me and I suspect others time to pad our margins.  It also halted some panicked people.

A successful retest of $255 where it holds on even higher volume means a very likely end of the bear market, but it's way too soon to call it. Best case scenario is that Coinbase went down due to overwhelming buying. I doubt that's really the case but it's possible. If people really were naked short-selling, then there will be (and possibly is) a scramble to find coins in order to cover.

The least likely scenario is we go straight up from here. If that happens, a lot of short positions will be force liquidated causing a massive spike with a major retracement. If that happens, go margin short as close to the top as you can and then cover on the retracement.

That's not exactly how it would play out. If we retest, it should be on lower volume or it's liable to break through $250.

The away I see it, if we don't get a higher volume follow thru on this swing downward, the trend will continue up.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
do you think we could see the $300 again?

Yes. No guarantee it stays there, though.
hero member
Activity: 888
Merit: 500
do you think we could see the $300 again?
full member
Activity: 175
Merit: 100
I just logged in. It works for me.
Jump to: