If China wakes up & starts dumping we are in the shit.
Like I said ....next 3 hours are critical I'f we hold at 250 we will be good for an upuptrend starting tmrw
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 23793. (Read 26713688 times)
January 04, 2015, 06:32:47 PM
Like I said ....next 3 hours are critical I'f we hold at 250 we will be good for an upuptrend starting tmrw
January 04, 2015, 06:28:07 PM
If China wakes up & starts dumping we are in the shit.
January 04, 2015, 06:26:56 PM
will china dump bitcoin soon to dead?
January 04, 2015, 06:25:47 PM
Difficulty at 340ph already at the upper end of my prediction 3 days ago.
Lots of new Antminer S5s on the network, mainly in Bitmains data centers. But if the price continues this way I think difficulty will start stagnating again. Not to mention the possible delay or mothballing of new 14nm/16nm finfet machines. People have bills to pay, networked super computers can't live on just love and good intentions.
Discusfish is the biggest pool now.
I would think at least 10000-15000 s5 came on board and then spondoolies cranking it up too
January 04, 2015, 06:24:55 PM
Next 3 hours are CRITICAL
January 04, 2015, 06:24:22 PM
so I should deposit more BTC to bitfinex or not 
Very bullish. I'm gonna toss another 25k at it tmr morning when my bank opens
No offense, just trying to stay objective, but i don't think it actually looks very bullish for many people...for old timers and some real believers maybe, but for the average Joe this looks like fricking bloodbath...
Depends on what you think btc is worth
And it certainly isn't worth what the last two schmucks traded it for to each other. Value of bitcoin is ultimately its value to consumers and the wider society at large
agree.....
I thought it was risky at $3, and this was 1 year after the guy traded 10000 coins for 2 large pizzas which valued it at .0025 so why would I over pay 1000x for it or 100000%
But then again it was hard to buy at that time and people made up fictictious numbers to trade for it because you really needed computer coding to know what was going on
January 04, 2015, 06:22:28 PM
My gawd, I step outside for an hour and y'all lost 260 level. Do I have to do everything around here
January 04, 2015, 06:22:15 PM
Difficulty at 340ph already at the upper end of my prediction 3 days ago.
Lots of new Antminer S5s on the network, mainly in Bitmains data centers. But if the price continues this way I think difficulty will start stagnating again. Not to mention the possible delay or mothballing of new 14nm/16nm finfet machines. People have bills to pay, networked super computers can't live on just love and good intentions.
January 04, 2015, 06:21:37 PM
Until the 1w charts start stabilizing I would suggest everyone stop panicking.
But the 1week chart has been down trending since June at $640.
You mean they should be worrying until it stops downtrending???
Everyone should be worried but panic is never good.
January 04, 2015, 06:20:00 PM
Until the 1w charts start stabilizing I would suggest everyone stop panicking.
But the 1week chart has been down trending since June at $640.
You mean they should be worrying until it stops downtrending???
January 04, 2015, 06:19:05 PM
BITCOIN IS DEAD RIP BITCOIN
you better hand any bitcoin you have over to me thenI think the GIF says it all...he has none left
January 04, 2015, 06:18:47 PM
Will Monday be bullish ?
Whatcha talking about Jasper? We just broke up through 260 again, not good enough for you?
January 04, 2015, 06:18:40 PM
The exchanges must be loving this, right?
Or since some of them are venturing into mining they aint actually that happy?
Or since some of them are venturing into mining they aint actually that happy?
January 04, 2015, 06:17:23 PM
I know what you're saying. People need to really think outside of the box. Don't listen to the media. What does your gut tell you about Bitcoin?..I have become successful in many areas of my life through spiritual guidance and mediation. It's not a bloodbath. The price is being pushed down on purpose by a someone or a group of people. They are making It more affordable for everyday people to hop on board. With the Russian ruble collapse and the world on the brink of another war. There is no better time for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is here for a reason. There are much larger forces at work here. We are all apart of the forum because we were guided here by our destiny. For some reason we are more aware of things than everyday people. So in turn I believe we will be very wealthy in the coming years. There are only a handfull of people who will get rich off of Bitcoin. But that wealth will help re stimulate growth into a stale united states economy and help propell us into a new Era much like the Internet did. Most people won't buy into bitcoin until it's too late to get rich. Because they are still stuck in the Matrix to some extent. Stay calm my friends and meditate.
Jammal'an the Prophet agrees with you
January 04, 2015, 06:16:51 PM
so I should deposit more BTC to bitfinex or not
Very bullish. I'm gonna toss another 25k at it tmr morning when my bank opens
No offense, just trying to stay objective, but i don't think it actually looks very bullish for many people...for old timers and some real believers maybe, but for the average Joe this looks like fricking bloodbath...
Depends on what you think btc is worth
And it certainly isn't worth what the last two schmucks traded it for to each other. Value of bitcoin is ultimately its value to consumers and the wider society at large
January 04, 2015, 06:16:34 PM
Will Monday be bullish ?
January 04, 2015, 06:16:28 PM
so I should deposit more BTC to bitfinex or not
Very bullish. I'm gonna toss another 25k at it tmr morning when my bank opens
No offense, just trying to stay objective, but i don't think it actually looks very bullish for many people...for old timers and some real believers maybe, but for the average Joe this looks like fricking bloodbath...
Depends on what you think btc is worth
I know what you're saying. People need to really think outside of the box. Don't listen to the media. What does your gut tell you about Bitcoin?..I have become successful in many areas of my life through spiritual guidance and mediation. It's not a bloodbath. The price is being pushed down on purpose by a someone or a group of people. They are making It more affordable for everyday people to hop on board. With the Russian ruble collapse and the world on the brink of another war. There is no better time for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is here for a reason. There are much larger forces at work here. We are all apart of the forum because we were guided here by our destiny. For some reason we are more aware of things than everyday people. So in turn I believe we will be very wealthy in the coming years. There are only a handfull of people who will get rich off of Bitcoin. But that wealth will help re stimulate growth into a stale united states economy and help propell us into a new Era much like the Internet did. Most people won't buy into bitcoin until it's too late to get rich. Because they are still stuck in the Matrix to some extent. Stay calm my friends and meditate.
[Crap! It's official, Bitcoin is going to die]
January 04, 2015, 06:16:12 PM
Its times like this that I scratch my head about the "buy on the way down" philosophy preached by many traders.
Its a great philosophy if whatever your buying continues to have value in your lifetime...not so great if it goes belly up or takes 2 lifetimes to regain its value.
Its a great philosophy if whatever your buying continues to have value in your lifetime...not so great if it goes belly up or takes 2 lifetimes to regain its value.
January 04, 2015, 06:15:53 PM
I was retarded to buy at $300 couple days ago from coinbase. Now I have to wait till thursday to get my coin while the value of BTC is going down every minute right before my eyes. What a shitty feeling. There goes $500
Thats typically what happens when you listen to the perma-psycho cult. You loose your underwear.
January 04, 2015, 06:15:50 PM
Let V be the total volume of such payments expressed in USD/day. Let T be the average time in days between the purchase of some BTC by one customer and its re-purchase by another customer, after going through a merchant or processor. Let N be the total number of coins available, and P the market price of one BTC. Then, the total volume of payments, in BTC/day, is N / T. Therfore, we musthave in we must have P *N / T = V, or P = V * T / N.
Today, N = 13.5 M BTC. BitPay currently processes ~1 million USD per day of payments; let's guess that V is ten times that, 10 M USD/day. Let's also guess T = 30 days. (Note, we are assuming that no one is hoarding, so that everybody passes the coins on as soon as pratical.) Then we get P = 10 * 30 / 13.6 = 22 USD.
Today, N = 13.5 M BTC. BitPay currently processes ~1 million USD per day of payments; let's guess that V is ten times that, 10 M USD/day. Let's also guess T = 30 days. (Note, we are assuming that no one is hoarding, so that everybody passes the coins on as soon as pratical.) Then we get P = 10 * 30 / 13.6 = 22 USD.
You'd still have the issue of there being some hurdles to overcome before buying BTC to spend it on anything. On one hand, this is a disincentive to use BTC for transactions, on the other it is an incentive to 'hoard', as you put it, if you do prefer to use BTC for some purposes.
That aside, I think we can agree any tradeable asset will see some speculation. Looking at your formula, it occurs to me you might add two variables to account for this. One is the growth rate of the BTC price and another is the average speculator's patience - how long they're willing to wait for profits to reach their targets. Of course both are unknown and actually somewhat interlinked, so it's no wonder price discovery is a messy business.
Hm, I suppose that a model that included speculation would have to be much more complicated. Right now, for example, we would need to know how many BTC have been last purchased at each price level, which I don't see how to get (see discussion a couple of pages ago), and then develop a stochastic model for the decisions of the typical investor. These decisions in turn may have to depend on the past price history. (I believe that the market as a whole only cares about the current price, but some individual traders believe in TA.)
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