Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 2384. (Read 26713621 times)

Explanation

JUST IN: 🇭🇰 Hong Kong is setting up a task force to develop #Bitcoin    and crypto hub - Financial Secretary 🙌

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1628739341743755265?t=Lk_35mpnletOZOBPNBhC-w&s=19

Explanation

Personally I still think a lot of the big swings that happens (rather than liquidation hunts) occurs due to OTC prices and its trades and how it can directly affect the spot market, somewhat unintentionally.

For example imagine when spot price was $17K but OTC was nearer $18K and an institution wants to buy 1,000 BTC, so what do they do? They buy say 800 OTC at a premium, then buy 200 on spot, pushing the price to $18K. Very much aware that if there are more OTC buyers, and clear lack of willing sellers at those prices, then the next big buyer will do the same if OTC prices are to maintain a premium. Some might call that manipulation, but I'd just consider it smart buying, that's very much determined by lack of OTC sellers (whale sellers let's say) rather than some personal desire to manipulate the spot price.

At least this is what I saw happen in 2019 from $4K to $5K, so wouldn't be surprised it's what happened from $17K to $21K, simply because the move was so strong at the time, as well as completely defying any resistance to the upside, given how much volume had been trading in that area as previous support that failed to act as new resistance. This might seem like an unlikely theory, but there are at least 2,000+ addresses with 1K coins, no doubt many more who have 1K+ spread across various wallets (old miners for example). They also ironically either stopped their aggressive selling since March last year once price reached $17K, or breaking up of coins, while addresses with 100 coins increased by 300 to 16K. So make of that what you will. Also while whales like to sell low, they usually avoid selling the exact bottom and leave that one to retail.

I say a similar dynamic also occurred in 2019 as it was the 1K addresses that increased by 300 as price dropped to $3.2K and continued their accumulation from there. This also remains the same $ value range of $20-30m+ buys compared to today's 100+ coin buyers. Therefore if the whales and humpbacks determine most of the markets moves, even the sharks now to some degree, then I very much doubt most of these trades are being done on spot market, as without building buy/sell walls, the slippage on Coinbase for example is +/-10% for buying/selling 1K coins. The whales aren't paying that slippage imo.

If I had to otherwise guess why price is correcting, the OTC premium has faded away (satisfied buyers) over the past month with prices at $23K+. So it might take a further correction to find new whale buyers.

52. philipma1957   2301

I’m at  95 I never noticed

95. shahzadafzal   1480   

View full list here

https://ninjastic.space/topic/178336

Edit: philipma1957 was already answered but it’s ok he deserve to be quoted again and again

Explanation

ok, let's say I try.  
English is not my mother tongue, and I'm a bit of a facetious person.
Also putting everything in short posts is not always easy...  I'm sure you are at least familiar with that problem 

That’s why we do Bitcoin !!!


https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/119kdr7/yup_this_is_why_we_do_bitcoin/

Explanation

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1628394766101622785?t=MqGuCwSSwLqkXNTkOh87KA&s=19

How's that?

The BTC price has hardly done anything in the past week or so..


Exactly.

Over the years, we have learned:  "don't prepare for UPpity."


"They"

don't want you to.

 


Nonsense.

Can't even get a meme right.


Shitcoiners love to trade.  Are you sure that you are in the thread that fits your shitcoiner-like proclivities?

Good time to short, no?


Oh?

so you are not ready to short, yet?

 


Hahahahaha

How far back in your communicative journey was that?  #askingforafriend

Explanation

Explanation

You can say that, again.

and again..


and again.


For whatever that's worth.   

 



Yes.. and part of the point remains, it depends upon where you start your measurement when you are wanting to describe straight line analysis (not that I don't do it myself) and also some level of questioning the extent to which some sloping off might not be necessary.. without going overboard in terms of sloping off too much too soon or even starting to measure from the wrong (or misleading/ non-representative) points if you might pick up such a straight-line analysis somewhere in the middle (or at a new point).


It's bearish in terms of describing it as a "base case" or likely scenario, but it is not bearish in terms of maintaining your own personal conservative financial/psychological preparations... or ways in which you might want to help to prepare yourself financially/psychologically in a way in order that you do not get ur lil selfie reckt..

Even though, it is quite likely that you had reckt yourself financially (and perhaps psychologically too) in your own personal historical failure/refusal to appreciate and prepare that BTC had decently good odds to outperform other asset classes - so in that regard, you would not have had even needed a whole lot of allocation to bitcoin in order to enjoy (profit) from the upside potential (and also what did end up happening in bitcoin in reality over the past 12 years or so)...

It seems quite likely that there are similar dynamics within bitcoin (and its investment thesis) in current times, and surely even if the upside potential for bitcoin is likely smaller, the overall nature and characteristics of an ongoing asymmetric bet continues to exist in bitcoin which means that there is likely going to be a lot of likelihood for ongoing profits from being in bitcoin in the coming years - including the next decade or two, even if the slope of the s-curve may well end up playing out less steep than it had played out in the past 10 years.... and in fact, you are likely correct that it is nearly impossible for bitcoin to come even close to having the same levels of upside performance in terms of percentages based on the use of higher base starting points if we start from today or even if we start from our current low point of this cycle or even if we were to project some other low point (such as sub $10k - that still seems to remain quite unlikely to happen in this particular cycle.... but never say never).


And, for whatever reason, it could end up playing lower than your lowest estimate, too... so it is not really getting us very far if we are just asserting that there are a variety of scenarios that could play out in which bitcoin's price ends up fitting into one of those scenarios down the road..

So where would there be any disagreement, if any?  How to prepare personally?  Of course, we have gone over these kinds of matters, several times... and then one of the questions that come up in this thread is how much bitcoin might any of us need and how might we play it?  Do we sell on the way up (0r at other points?) and if we do sell at what points do we sell, and how much?
 How much do we accumulate?  Have we accumulated enough?  It's not necessary to answer these questions in this thread, even though on a personal level each of us likely should have answers regarding how we are preparing, and we know that the vast majority of the world is not really prepared in terms of being off of zero.. and there might be some guys (and gal) in this thread who are also question their own preparations in regards to the next 10 years or so.. and if they have thought through various BTC price dynamics.. including that in practice, bitcoin does not look like a straight line even if we are likely going to be able to go back (once history has past) and make various straightlines and to be able to more clearly see at what points bitcoin had been in conformity and in line with such straight line points on such chart... but is that framework helpful right now, except for anticipating that the likely direction of the trajectory is UP.. but inevitable, is it?  Is straight-line forward projection helpful, personally (financially or psychologically)?

the models of stock to flow, four-year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on networking effects and metcalf principles is not straightline.. but there are some straightline ways of thinking about it.. including the rainbow chart has some straightline ways of framing the matter, too.

NEW:🇨🇭Mayor of Lugano, Switzerland announces unveiling of spring school program for #Bitcoin     education! 🎓 🙌

https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1628496064197042176?t=u7zPO4Mz0vDUF_ANveRKFw&s=19

Explanation

FIX THE MONEY - FIX THE WORLD #Bitcoin

#bitcoin2023 - The Future of Freedom Starts Here

🎟️👉 bm.b.tc/bitcoin-2023

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1628189729933123588?t=adSGjWq_Zcldg26Warc7Rw&s=19
Click 👆👆👆

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