Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 2404. (Read 26713499 times)

Does not matter if it is noise or if we drop under 20k or even go to the original terrible predictions for this bear say 12-13k.  Or if we bounce right back to 25k and then 30k.

Because of my discussions here and my mining setup I have decided to go about this in a different manner.


We all know btc will not do 120% on the button 20 years in a row.

For me at 66 I have decided that 76 is my time line for dca and buy the dip hodl moves.

And they are separate from my mining moves (this is due to JJG's influence)

I look at gold in the 1992 to 2003 range it was 200-400 the whole time

it hit 1848 by 2011 and from 2011 to 2023 it has been in a 1064 to 2050 slot

If BTC is to be in a 28.7 to 69 slot from dec 2020 to now.

the same rise of 4.5 to 5.0 could happen over next 8 years and maybe we push 300k by 2031-2032

https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price


charts of gold are interesting when cherry picked as follows:

1992 to 2003 = flat slot
2003 to 2011= big jump
2011 to 2023 = flat slot


so cherry pick btc and does dec 2020 to feb 2023 = 1992 to 2003 for gold

thus  2023 to 2025 btc could = 2003 to 2011 for gold

and we are near 300k really quick

I am thinking we do not see this speed.

So I set a 10 year plan for my dca + dip and hodl all independent of mining.

so 2032 nov or bust. for my current 'investment buys'

Explanation

In the ballpark of 100%, since we are already there.


Part of the problem seems to be that you come off as if you are describing some kind of a stable BTC price, and we know that bitcoin does not work like that... and maybe it would "feel" better if you were referring to possible future BTC price bottoms, but just describing it as if it were some kind of a reasonable/serious expectation (or a kind of "base case") makes you seem a wee bit "anti-bitcoin".... even if that doesn't really seem to be your intention...


Are you a spook?   


Noise, no?

Explanation

Even though those numbers seem bearish, they are kind of the way that I like to consider my investments too.. .. so the more conservative would be 6% per year (which yeah is 106% per year).. yet I do also think that we can get away with something like 10% to 12% if we use the 200-week moving average, and reality will likely out perform that... Reality is likely to outperform your 1.2x per year too.. but it does not hurt to be conservative when it comes to assessing the likely future value of your wealth (investment portfolio).. ..

Yet when it comes to bitcoin, I don't see any reason to be rejiggering it every year, so even if there was a relatively conservative investment scenario when I got into bitcoin in 2013, so if my then investment portfolio was $100k, and so maybe I might have decided to invest up to 10% into bitcoin but then I got carried away and got up to something like 13% or 14% into bitcoin, and maybe I did not even do very well, and so I ended up ONLY getting 13.5 BTC out of the whole deal at an average cost of $1k per BTC... .So my regular investment portfolio might have gone up around 80% to 90% in the last 9 years, and if we want to be generous, then maybe we could say that it doubled and went from $100k to $200k.. yet how much is 13.5 BTC worth right now?  Right around $318,600 (using a BTC price of $23,600).. which would mean that my total investment portfolio might be worth around $518,600, and thus 61.5% of my investment portfolio is in BTC.. I am not necessarily fucking around with it... but allowing it to grow and attempting to be prudent about it and not drawing from the profitable portions of my overall holdings.. which has been the BTC portion of my holdings.

There are ways that BTC can be very powerful, even if we fuck up in a variety of ways, as long as we are mostly aiming towards holding and/or building our BTC and perhaps when we get to a certain point we strive that our bitcoin stash does not shrink below certain portions - even though by its own price appreciation, relative to the rest of our investments, it seems to have had been growing way better than our other investments... and even though there are no guarantees, there still seems to be fairly strong investment thesis in regards to bitcoin to suggest that bitcoin is quite likely to continue to outperform our various other investments, even if we might ONLY assign it relatively low future value approximations.. ...and sure we can project out a variety of scenarios in which some of them are more bearish and conservative, such as 6%, 12% or 20% per year or maybe some others might be more medium optimistic such as 1.5x to 4x per year.. and maybe others might even be more optimistic, such as 100x in one or two years and not really knowing if or whether such a blow off top BTC price performance might come, even though we have seen such BTC price performance happenings historically and there is nothing really ruling them out, except just attempting to NOT be overly optimistic.. while still realizing that we can ot be overrealistic but still prepared for such upside possibilities that "could" end up happening.. which includes our taking whimpy actions in which we sabotage our lil selfies from benefiting from upside BTC scenarios because we invest in crap that we know is likely to lose value.. such as the dollar and maybe even several other dollar dependent investments.


"pro-reality"


hahahahahahaha

Who cannot be "for" that?


 


Which goes to show that Philip's scenario is not really very likely.. even though it can be used as a kind of "worser case" scenario.. not as if it were a "likely scenario."... some people invest into bitcoin as if it were the base case and think of no other scenario.. and then fail/refuse to prepare for other possible more bullish scenarios.. and sometimes might even get attracted to some other "competing" investment, if such a "competing investment" thing actual does exist.

but it is down now. 25.2k to 23.5k 

Explanation

There is more important things going on in the world...right.....right?




No there is not

Ooooh thx, didn't noticed such thing

Explanation

my 20% number over the next 20 years brings us to 640k

in the year 2043.

20% is not crazy high pie in the sky number.


lets check 30%

Brings us to 230k by 2033

and 3.167 million in 2043


my guess is the range is 20% to 30%

My point is if you prep for that range  you can do some planning for that range.

Explanation

Interesting...it was 2X beforehand...now, maybe 1.5X per your suggestion, later could be 1.25-1.35X (maybe after the this cycle peak?).
Amazon did 35% average during 25 years, bitcoin could do better.

If after matching the last ATH it would be 35% yearly average, I would be happy.
If it has to be from now on, OK for the next 3 years, then great.


a small correction...50%/year until maybe 2027(?), then 35%

16.70K                        Jan 23
25.05                         Jan 24 (feels bearish, but OK)
37.575                       Jan 25
56.3625                     Jan 26 (feels low, but it is about 1 tril market cap)
84.54375                   Jan 27 (start of x1.35 appreciation)
114.1340625              Jan 28
154.081                     Jan 29
208.01                       Jan 30
280.81260                  Jan 31
379.097                      Jan 32
511.781K                    Jan 33 (ten years, 10 tril market cap, close to current gold's mcap)

To me, this is quite possible, but it is also possible that as the rest of the "crypto" collapses, we rip up.

Where's proudhon?
Time to predict $1k... 
#HODL

I wonder what the chances of Bitcoin falling to 23K again are

Explanation

gaaawd... philipma1957 get a grip... you are taking it way too far with you bearishness...

with this growth rate we won't even get another ATH in 10 years, when adjusted for inflation.

Resistance is breaking down… We saw a brief burst through $25K but the market hasn’t been able to hold that level yet. As I stated before, I suspect if we do see a prolonged move above $25K and accumulation happening, we’re going to jump straight to $30K faster than anyone expects. Hopefully people were able to grab the FTX dip around $16K. I’ll admit I wish I bought more, but I’m happy to stick with the plan and watch it unfold.

Explanation