Yes, but I think that I am disliking 2x per year because it is seemingly overly optimistic, so from my point of view it is not a very accurate depiction of reality, even though we can find examples of some folks who invested in bitcoin in early days and perhaps their average cost per BTC is quite low, and each year if we double the price, their returns or "on track"..
... If I would have gotten into bitcoin at $100 in mid 2013, then even 2x per year becomes difficult to sustain because it looks like this:
2014 $200
2015 $400
2016 $800
2017 $1,600
2018 $3,200
2019 $6,400
2020 $12,800
2021 $25,600
2022 $51,200
2023 $102,400
Agreed and this is why I do not like when people refer to the history of doubling and we are due for another double event but I disagree because of the reasons you say. Look at where we are today hitting resistance around $25000 and being able to push past that. It would be insane to think that in 2024 we are going to hit $200000. I guess the only problem we have is 2024 probably will see a big increase because of the halving but halving are not going to be here forever and I still think expecting btc to double every time we hit a halving is unsustainable.
So those dumbass claims are wanting us to start back in 2010 (at below $1), 2011 (at $2) or 2012 (at below $10) to make the 2x per year to be sustainable up until now, but it is not likely going to be sustainable into the future, and also it is not fucking ridiculous even if it is true on paper for those people who got in at those earlier bitcoin hardly has a price prices.
I understand what you are saying you are not saying that it is easy to double small investments and not large ones but the lower btc was the more possibility of it doubling and now we are reaching xxxxxx numbers it is much harder to achieve. I agree with that I think I misunderstood what you were saying in the previous post.
I am not sure if I would proclaim that I am optimistic, but I want to figure out some ways in which each of us should be able to structure some kind of BTC investment and/allocation plan that fits our situations in such a way that we will lessen the amount of emotions that we are going to feel when the BTC price moves beyond expectations, and perhaps it hurts us worse if we are not prepared for the BTC price to go down... and I don't really believe in selling in order to prepare for down as much as I believe in pacing your buying and continuing to buy until you get into sufficient profits and perhaps overallocation that you end up being able to shave off some profits on the way up in order to relieve yourself from so many pressures in order to keep buying when the BTC price goes down with new money...
Would you prefer to be called a objective person with a rationale mind? I see your posts and you are passionate about btc but I never see you saying INVEST and you are guaranteed to profit which I like because you are not selling new members a fairy tale that could make them lose a lot of money which I think a lot of the btc community is guilty of. I think you have a optimistic approach or maybe it is confidence in btc but you are more level headed then a lot of people here. We have people who throw btc down the drain when it starts to hit resistance and then we have people thinking it is going to make us all millionaires over night.
Of course, your initial lump summing yourself into bitcoin probably contributed to some of the additional stress that you brought to yourself, and I am not even suggesting that it might not have been the right play for you and for your then situation, even though I would have probably played it somewhat differently.. in terms of probably lump summing with 1/3, DCA with 1/3 over several months, and scheduling buys on dips with 1/3.. and how I would have allocated those amounts would have also depended partly upon what were my other then investments and my cashflow too... and probably a few other factors too.
It definitely contributed to low moods at the beginning many times I doubted if I did the right thing and I still remember when I 1st invested and was shaking from the adrenaline. It was a horrible feeling but I was the most confident in my life before investing that lump sum. I know a lot of people are not in the position to do this and I am fortunate but I have worked for this over many years and was in the position because of the hard work I have done. I know youngsters want to jump in on btc and put a lump sum down but it is volatile and a lot of them do not have the heart of belief that they will profit in a few years. dca is the best option for them because it calms the nerves of investing but can net you a nice profit over the years. I fear for the people who invest and expect a quick return because I think we are past the days of doubling as you said.
I think I might make my biggest investment in Bitcoin. I was hoping it would go down a little more but the market looks healthier then I thought it would be this early in the year. What do you guys think? I want to invest a few 1000 and I will not be in any rush to sell it. I have been using dollar cost average for a long time but I think this might be the perfect time looking at the graphs above to invest a big amount instead of continuing to dollar cost average?
We are recovering but I do not know if we have seen the lowest yet. If you can afford it I think it is as good as a time as any I invested when it btc was a lot higher but I do not have any regrets but do be prepared because it is a lot of strain on your emotions when you see btc decline.
