...unlike other U.S. asset classes, Bitcoin is orthogonal to monetary and macroeconomic news. This disconnect is puzzling as unexpected changes in discount rates should, in principle, affect the price of Bitcoin even when interpreting Bitcoin as a purely speculative asset.
New York Fed - The Bitcoin–Macro Disconnecthttps://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr1052.pdf"6 Conclusions
Is macroeconomic news driving Bitcoin? In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of the impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy news on Bitcoin’s price. We model Bitcoin as an asset with no intrinsic value for which its current price depends on the discounted value of its future price. In our empirical analysis, we find that Bitcoin is unresponsive to both monetary and macroeconomic news. In particular, the result that Bitcoin does not react to monetary news is puzzling as it casts some doubts on the role of discount rates in pricing Bitcoin. Given the short sample used in the analysis, however, more evidence is needed to assess the disconnect between Bitcoin and macroeconomic fundamentals."
duh they still do not understand the why of it.
please note my quote is from the fed article.
Yep.. that's a good point Philip.
They consider bitcoin as uncorrelated, which is probably a correct conclusion; however, they arrive at such "uncorrelated" conclusion based on the wrong reasons, and they are trying to argue (desperate or what?) the same bullshit that fails to appreciate any kind of value/utility in bitcoin beyond speculation, and such bold face lies are not going to be very convincing for anyone who even spends 20-100 hours really studying bitcoin. .and then realize that even if we might not agree upon the extent to which bitcoin is useful or that it has utility, anyone who is assigning "zero" utility of it is engaging in bold face lying or they are delusional. Just the mere ability to send value without an intermediary is valuable as fuck, even if there might be some obstacles and some volatility.. or even loss of value within the range of bitcoin's ongoing price dynamics possibilities.... and yeah, sure there could be ways to remove or lessen BTC's liquidity through various attacks and freezing of avenues, but then where the fuck is bitcoin going to go? more and more underground.. so not sure what that accomplishes beyond just making the war (battle) more obvious.
CMF CCMF is otherwise flipping back to bearish (after bearish divergence) suggesting some further downside or sideways before more upside.
FTFY.. since I don't know what is CMF, but I do know what is CCMF.
