Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 2426. (Read 26713027 times)

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Hey, my apologies if this is too OT, but NOSTR has just gotten real hot.

zerohedge just had an article on them, apparently a lot of BTC-ers and angered Twitter people are joining this interesting uber-social decentralized network.  I've just spent a couple of hours looking at NOSTR related stuff.  There is at least one pretty active user buying/selling BTC there.  I have no idea how to join (yet), but this looks like it may become A Big Thing.  They have a really good "BTC Ethos" it looks like.

Warning: Even they say that because the network is so new, users should be aware that they may become "REKT".

Some beginner info I've looked at:

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/how-nostr-will-change-world-privacy     <=== ZH article this afternoon

nostr.ch    <=== running chat

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/what-makes-nostr-a-different-social-platform   <=== recent Bitcoin Magazine article
 
https://nostr-resources.com/    <=== self-explanatory


and a recent comment that caught my attention (cut'n'paste):

d3076435 53 seconds ago
stocking up on #Bitcoin

shedding material possessions

stay agile

✩2

Explanation

DCA can protect you from the bear market. Instead of investing large sums all at once you average out the moeny that you invest and it protects against the extreme volatility that a bear market can bring. If you invested 50000 at $30000 you would be down now a huge amount but if you invested 50000 over the time it was gaining to $30000 then you would not be feeling the losses as much and it would probably stop you from panic selling. I wish more newcomers to btc would learn about dca because it protects them from panic selling which can hurt the market for longer.

Using DCA probably means you will not get the extreme profits you would if you invested 50000 and then the market went on a bull run but it does not matter because you still will profit a lot. There is no shame in DCA I did not do it at 1st but since I invested a large amount I have been using the dca strategy every month. I find it helps me not worry about the short term volatility that happens and when it starts increasing I know I have a large investment which will show some very good profits. I think it is 1 of the problems with newcomers they buy into btc with a lump sum and then they expect fireworks but when they do not get those fireworks they sell at a loss and never return to btc. That is a loss to the community and hurts the market so we should be encouraging dca as a way of stopping people panic selling. 

Do these guys work for the post office? The steering wheel is on the wrong side.

I have one question about JayJuanGee, how you write so much ? Im thingking about you are a native speaker or i dont know beacuse its seems like you can spend a lot of time writing the post.

Imagine i felling tired only of read, so you are full of energy man. This its not a criticism its more like a congratulation.

---

Its seems of most of the people dont understand some things in the world. You never know when you are gonna need the money from an emergency.

So in that moment its when all your "masterplan" can fall.

No, but I see a big iron meteorite.

Explanation

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/what-makes-nostr-a-different-social-platform

Oh gawd...    I am not sure if I should hug you or slap you.  #nohomo

Largely, it seems that you had been getting all hot and bothered and wanting to argue against DCA, but failing/refusing to understand what the fuck I am talking about... so in a large sense, you are saying something pretty damned close to the same thing as me, even though I have a pretty good idea that your failure/refusal to actually employ DCA and your attempting to be smarter than everyone else in regards to timing the market has contributed towards your being way the fuck overly whimpy over the years in regards to how much BTC that you had accumulated during earlier years because you had been trying to time your BTC buys for dips that never ended up happening...

So, yeah, you don't want to admit that you could have likely been way more aggressive and even accumulated way more BTC if you had employed some version of DCA in regards to your BTC accumulation, but part of your ongoing problem has been that you have had a lot of reservations about BTC that's why you had been ongoingly trying to time a "bargain buy price" rather than just buying at any price, which was the case for many of us who were more bullish about BTC over the past 9 years, and especially in the period of 2014 to 2017... so yeah, you likely ONLY got bullish about bitcoin in recent years, and so you want to suggest that your strategy of NOT employing DCA worked better, and surely that could have been the case for yourself, and surely relatively speaking, even if you had been whimpy about BTC accumulation between 2014 and 2017 relative to me, you still are likely way the fuck ahead of the vast majority of normies since likely less than 1% of the world population has any BTC and surely there are a decent number of folks who are even lower coiners than you... because over the years you have become more bullish about bitcoin.. even though you likely are not even wanting to admit that your historical "reservations about BTC" had contributed to both your whimpiness in investing into bitcoin and the likelihood that you had been investing in a variety of other assets (such as various stocks, even if they might not have been index funds but instead individually researched) that ended up way the fuck underperforming bitcoin over the past 9 years when you would have likely been  a lot better off employing investment into BTC tactics that would have been more assertive than what you ended up employing.

And, surely, it is quite likely that you and I were in a different place, anyhow, in terms of the size of our own investment portfolios relative to our ages (or our readiness, abilities and/or willingness) to continue to work to earn cashflow.  So I cannot even blame you completely for approaching the BTC matter differently from me based on our own likely life circumstances... even though I can criticize you for ongoingly bashing the DCA'ing approach and acting as if there is some other better systematic way that normies should be gaining their exposure to BTC.. and you still likely want to quibble, even though in the whole scheme of things you are not really saying anything much materially/substantively different from me.

But quibble if you must.. and argue away.. fuck around with the hypotheticals.. selectively choose your facts.. and move the goal posts.. and in essence, you do what you do best.  

 

It's not like I don't like you, even though you make a lot of work for me to have to clarify based on your seemingly quasi-trolling anti-DCA wannabe assertions... and even though it seems like we largely agree about a lot of this, I have no reason to believe that you are going to stop at anytime in the near future.


For many years, i have been describing ways to combine DCAing with buying on dips and lump sum investing.  Of course, the more that you have reached target BTC accumulation levels that are within your discretion to choose such levels, whether they are between 1% to 25% of your investment portfolio or some other amount or even changing the target allocation level from time to time or even reallocating (if you might not want to let your winners ride - presuming historically that BTC would have been the likely winner over the past 9 years).. you are going to have a lot more flexibility once you established a BTC stash and even more flexibility if your BTC allocation is in profits and perhaps even more flexibility if you are overallocated (depending on how you define your own thresholds for what is "overallocated").



You are quibbling.

A part of my point has continuously been that we cannot really know when, how much or if dips in the BTC price are going to occur or how long they are going dip or continue to dip in the event that they do happen, even if we can speculate about them, so in some sense, it is way easier just have an amount that is invested on a regular basis and perhaps some more that is reserved for dips, and no matter what it can be difficult to have confidence in regards to how much value to allocate to each category or even how much confidence to allocate towards BTC purchases in regards to some extra cashflow that might come in.  .. of course, if a guy/gal is buying regularly, then they might be less anxious in regards to picking up more BTC, and if someone might have had $100 per week coming in that they could invest, and if their DCA had ONLY been $10 per week, then after 6 months, they might get anxious to invest some of that extra $2,340 ($90 x 26 weeks), and so there can be all kinds of variations in regards to how any one of us might exercise our discretion in regards to how much we want to place into our regular DCA versus how much we might have allocated for buying on dips....

...as I mentioned to you several times, I had done the vast majority of my DCA in 2014  - but then I could not really resist engaging in some additional DCA and buying on dips in 2015 and 2016 - even though I had done the vast majority of my DCA'ing in 2014.. .. so then after 2017, I have not had very much new cash that I had ended up allocating towards either DCA or buying on dips, so my own system fell under some other priorities of mostly maintenance.. and not really much if any liquidations, even though I am not going to deny that I have had some liquidations mostly since 2019.. which sometimes might cause me to reconsider if I might want to employ DCA tactics. and surely this latest drop below $20k (starting in about June 2022) caused me to invest with some new money that ended up falling in both categories of buying on dips and DCA.. but for me, it seems that I mostly had been structuring most of that cash in terms of the buying on dips category, since the vast majority of any extra BTC allocated cash that I had was spent supra $20k... seemingly like a large number of folks involved in BTC, I had mostly expected that the BTC price would not go below the 200-week moving average at all and then worser-case scenarios that it would ONLY dip for short periods below the 200-week moving average and likely not dip more than 10%-15% below the 200-week moving average and then our even worser case scenario ended up playing out in terms of both how long and how far the BTC price had dipped below the 200-week moving average, which ended up causing me to feel that I needed to authorize more value to be allocated towards BTC.. so yeah.. fucked up.. but since I had not been leveraging or anything like that, I felt that I was able to just reallocate more cash towards BTC buys (mostly in the buying on dips allocations, but perhaps some of that went into some token DCA purchases too)...


Yes.. my responses regarding trading were mostly aimed at some of the points that dragonvslinux was making that to me seemed to have been fucking around with our parameters in similar ways that your dumb-ass inclusion of "normies should mine" messed around with what we were talking about in our hypothetical or at least how we were talking about BTC accumulation over the past 9 years or so that would largely had been attempting to focus on various ways to accumulate through buying. whether DCA or buying in gulps or some variations of comparing and contrasting buying/holding .. and not talking about trading and selling.. .. so yeah, I had figured that you and I had not gotten into talking about how selling might potentially contribute towards BTC accumulations levels that would beat a strict DCA amount, even though you personally seem to have been asserting that you "know about" methods to have had potentially systematically returned 150% greater returns than a strict DCA approach.. which I think that you are full of shit on that.. Sure, there are ways to beat strict DCA, but I really doubt that it is easy to beat strict DCA and/or to regularly beat strict DCA for the vast majority of normies - even if you personally might have been able to accomplish such 150% greater returns, but I think that you are probably not even engaging in Apples to Apples comparisons.. and if you might have averaged $411 per BTC over the past 9 years, that sounds kind of ridiculous to me when the hypothetical ONLY allows you to have $100 per week come available, so you would have had to borrow against your future earnings in 2015/2016 or some other bullshit like that (and you surely were not bullish enough about bitcoin in those years while you were too much of a fucking scaredy cat, so you would not have even done something like that.. but sure maybe you had that amount of money that you invested to have a $411 per BTC average and then you just restrained from buying BTC between 2017 and 2022.. and then proclaiming that you beat DCA because your numbers are better on your whimpy investment.. blah blah blah.  You have made those kinds of non-specific assertions previously, so I would not put such assertions past you to make again in your desires to proclaim that buying in gulps is objectively and repeatedly better than DCA.. which largely seems to just amount to your comparing apples and oranges or selectively fucking around with the facts in order to get your better than DCA results.


I am not even opposed to maintaining some dry powder, and you are right to imply that there could be ways that someone who mostly employed the gulp approach to BTC investing/accumulation might have had more dry powder than a strict DCA'er when something like March 2020 came along... and there are a variety of ways to get there.. but if someone ONLY had $100 per week coming about that is available for investing into BTC, there might have been times along the way in which most of the dry powder would have been spent.. especially after the 2018 dip that maxed out in December 2018 and then we had another dip that maxed out in something like December 2019.. so how much dry powder would have been available in March 2020 if there had already been buys along the way.. Perhaps 3 months worth - between December 2019 and March 2020.. which would be like $1,200 to buy during the March 2020 dip, and maybe some folks could have held out and bought some BTC below $7,500, and then more below $6k and then would there be comfort to buy more in the $4k territory?  And how much would that have beat DCA.. sure it is possible to beat DCA with a hybrid that involves buying on dips, but there are still actual time constraints regarding how much time that the vast majority of normies might want to spend trying to figure out when the dips come, how much of a dip and how much they might want to save for buying on dips rather than just mostly DCAing in order to largely create the level of aggressiveness that is comfortable for them, and if they believe in BTC fundamentals, they would likely already have created a DCA amount that allows them to be sufficiently aggressive and perhaps still set some buying on dips buy orders.. but they still may have well run out of money in the supra $6k levels in the March 2020 dip.. depending on how they reasonably might have had their whole situation set up that hopefully accounts for most of their individual financial and psychological circumstances - including but not limited to cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, how much BTC that they have accumulated in light of their other goals/circumstances, timeline, risk tolerance, time, skills and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.


Well, hopefully the regular WO folks are tailoring their approach in ways that account for their own financial and psychological circumstances.. which surely the longer that they are in bitcoin, then the more that they should be able to tailor their approach, including that they may well end up graduating away from BTC accumulation to either a mostly maintenance mode or a liquidation mode.. and surely, market circumstances sometimes might cause their own perceptions of their movements (or emphasis of their strategies) between BTC accumulation, maintenance and/or liquidation modes.

Explanation

Meanwhile Elmos expensive social media sideproject went read-only..

(A lot of people - if not all - seem to get a "Sorry you have exceeded your tweet limit." when trying to post/tweet)

Wouldn't doubt it.


Fuck Putin.

The honorable undersecretary Nuland has made her attitude towards Europe very clear in the past:


I share that concern to some degree, but I comfort myself with the thought that we're meanwhile just too many and they are just too late with any of that.

Explanation

Did Biden give the order to destroy Putin's Nord Stream pipeline after Ukraine invasion? Bombshell report claims Navy divers carried out mission to kill Russia's gas stranglehold on Europe in audacious mission overseen by president
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11727691/U-S-carried-Nord-Stream-bomb-attack-secret-plan-led-Joe-Biden-report-claims.html



It indeed seems very unlikely to me Russia would have attacked their own pipeline, probably hoping for a negotiated peace-deal with Ukraine (taking Luhansk and Donetsk) and potentially quite happy to sell gas again to Germany.

The USA were definitely in that area in June with navy "exercises". How could Russia feasibly blow this up in NATO waters?


Victoria Nuland, who alongside Anthony Blinken are the neo-cons who pretty much run the United States of America.


The bit I don't get, even if the USA is happy to sacrifice Europe in its attempts to overthrow the Russian regime and try to break that country up, why are Europe letting this happen? Over a piss ant country Ukraine? There is no association with Ukraine, it isn't in the EU, nor in NATO and countries such as The Netherlands are in fact breaking their own constitution by supplying weapons to a country outside of these organisations, that could potentially lead to a war.
Russia already invaded Ukraine in 2014 without this escalatory military reaction.
It was briefly in the news but nothing major happened. The 2018 World Cup in Russia still went ahead. Meanwhile Western Ukraine was shelling Eastern Ukraine and 15,000 people died. No one in the west cared.
A week before Russia fully attempted to invade Ukraine Kamala Harris said "We would like to see Ukraine in NATO." It was a red line and she would have known that.

Thus I don't believe most of the anti Russia media gunk we are being fed. More is at stake. No doubt the likes of Ursula Von Der Leyen have been promised endless financial gain.

The USA probably sees Europe no longer being an economic powerhouse due to impossibly high energy costs as an extra win.

What the USA did with Nordstream could have been seen as an act of war if independent European countries still had a say.


It certainly seems major forces are playing us all on a giant chessboard for their own (mostly financial) gain with the media doing mostly what those forces say.

2030; net zero, the major reset, CBDCs, forced EVs. I suspect the citizens of the west may have a bigger battle on their hands than worrying about Putin and what he wants with Ukraine.


I can't imagine Bitcoin is going to be left alone to be honest.
The remaining exchanges can easily be controlled / be forced to close is my main concern.

I think that it bears repeating that you are ONLY giving part of the story Philip.  Sure, I have no problem with your chosen structure to NOT provide exact specifics in terms of what is the exact number of fiat (presumptively dollars) in which "x" references; however, I find it a bit problematic that you seem to be implying that you are so "eager to employ" DCA without describing the context in which you may have built up such a fiat reserves.. and the fact of the matter is that you sold a decent amount of BTC on the way down and even below $20k, so it is difficult to understand if you have even come close to making up for the amount that you had sold in the ballpark of $20k (and presumably below $20k based on your previous discussions of such).  Another thing that is unclear is how much you may have been whimping out on your own DCA levels into BTC based on how hot and heavy you were about IBonds right around that same time in which you were selling your BTC below $20k and you were pumping the idea of IBONDs when the BTC price was around $16k.. and many of us pointed out the problematic nature that you were spending so much time with a IBonds "hard-on," and subsequent BTC price performance is showing how it has been quite greatly underperforming bitcoin.. including the problematic aspects of potentially locking up the value that anyone might have ended up investing into IBonds rather than BTC, even accounting for the $10k annual limitation of how much that could be put into IBonds, which might have saved some folks from investing even more into that "save the US Government" distracting, if not quasi-scammy, bullshit.

So, yeah you have been a bit silent in regards to the topic in regards to whether you had even been able to buy back the quantity of BTC that you had sold in the sub $20k price arena.. so some leaving out of material facts that could be somewhat misleading in regards to how most normies should be attempting to employ DCA or even how they should be attempting to manage/maintain or build their BTC stash.... .

Anyhow, my main quibble is the partial story that convolutes DCA with buying on dips, and hopefully normies are not getting mislead into considering that your fucking around with selling BTC on the way down is a good practice that should be combined with a more solid DCA strategy that does not fuck around with selling until reaching clear and unambiguous bitcoin profits and/or overaccumulation that most likely would be allowed in limited ways if selling on the way up or at least NOT on such BIG ass drops in which you were employing such bad practices of selling BTC on the way down and even selling at historically low BTC price points that were way the fuck below the 200-week moving average  (something like more than 15% below the 200-week moving average), and of course a lot of these kinds of matters could be relative in terms of the BTC that you sold still being in profits, but surely those are the kinds of details that we are missing in your story that seems to have been employing bad practices and then mixing them with good practices and maybe just saying too much in regards to what you are doing that might be misleading regarding to the applicability of your approach in terms of at least getting closer to better practices that would be more acceptable in terms of attempting to manage risks and accumulating BTC and/or maintaining an already somewhat established BTC stash.

Explanation

This has to be fake news.
Next time you'll be telling me that the CIA is a terrorist organisation?
C'mon!

 

Hahaha man fantastic, its really the meme.

We can say we change the wave, before we have the Bogdanoffs (men) and now we are with MADonna (female).

A photo cant have music, (me hearing the music from the videos of lowbudget on YT on that meme)

Explanation