Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 2432. (Read 26712953 times)

Explanation

I was about to post this... very interesting if you see his video and other tweets you will see how accurately he predicted way before it occurred.

As per his twitter profile he's Dutch and does research on planets and their effect on Earth's seismic activity.

In his videos he shows how this specific planetary alignment will affect seismic activity on earth but man… I’m amazed!

https://youtu.be/TZL-pJh3QaU



Joke apart, I'm stunned by his prediction. Can we ask him about the future bitcoin price? I mean it's going up but how much up?

Dude , I hate to break it to you, but slanted Mark Dice You Tube vids (and most other interwebz nonsense) that match your perceived narrative are not exactly representative of what’s happening to the USA.
Try living and working there for a few years like me.
BTW, I don’t give a ratts ass about the Grammys.

Explanation

Yes, I think it was him, I was hoping someone would pick up his mantel.

Explanation

You still seem to be fighting the hypothetical... yet you are implying that whatever you did outperformed regular DCA by 150%... and if you are saying that you spent even less dollars, but you still accumulated 150% more BTC?  I am having difficulties believing that.. or how it might be applied to normies to be able to accomplish the same (a replicable model).  

Another thing, you know that the hypothetical does not allow you to spend more than $5,200 per year because you would not have it.. so if you are giving yourself a higher budget in the beginning, then the DCA would have similar abilities.


Still not generally applicable.. just like AverageGlabella mentioned it is capital intensive.. but also there is a need to have time, skills and inclinations to do that... Saying to mine seems off topic, a distraction and moving the goal posts as I already mentioned.


No one is saying that you will make a killing from DCAing.

In some sense, we may well be talking past each other.. because I am not even suggesting that anyone coming into bitcoin might not advance his/her skills and get to know himself/herself along the way in order to tailor his/her approach to how s/he invests into bitcoin.

To the extent that you are squirming around and changing the facts, it's like we are talking about two different kinds of people.  Frequently, I am referring to how any newbie might get into bitcoin and get off zero.. so where do you start?  You start by starting to buy a small amount on a regular basis and then figuring out your particulars, and so if you are able to get all your shit in order, then you can move onto more advanced approaches to BTC accumulation.

You have way more flexibility once you have accumulated BTC and your BTC are in profits... and the longer that you are in, you are going to tailor a whole bunch of techniques.. Where do you start?  How do you start accumulating BTC?  You say that you have to make an assessment and figure out when you are going to get in?  Is that what you are saying?

Another thing is that each person should be competing against himself/herself in terms of figuring out a BTC accumulation/investment strategy that works for him/her in terms of balancing financial and psychological matters.. and then figuring out investment targets, so starting out with a BTC accumulation target that might fall somewhere in the arena in which 1% to 25% would be allocated to bitcoin as compared to their whole investment portfolio would be a good start and the more aggressive would gravitate towards the higher end of the range and the less aggressive might just get somewhere in the lower end of the range to be happy with where they are at, but the devil is in the details regarding how they might apply the situation, and how long it might take them to go from zero% in bitcoin to their target amount...

I said for me it took a year to get to about a 10% allocation into bitcoin (between late 2013 and late 2014), but then in my second year I had gotten to about 13.5% (towards the end of 2015), which I considered to have had been about 3.5% overallocated.. even though I rolled with how the matter was playing out for me, and adjusted my BTC portfolio management strategies based on where I had gotten in comparison to where I had intended to get, so based upon such allocation that thereafter was affected by BTC price performance that mostly went up from there, I had to thereafter come up with BTC portfolio management strategies to figure out how to deal with my having had caused myself to have had become overallocated in BTC and to largely retain such ongoing overallocation.. which has been a personalized BTC portfolio dynamic that has continued to affect my bitcoin investment approach.. in terms of continuing to let the winners ride.. but at the same time feeling o.k. to shave off profits at almost any time too... but I surely am not expecting others to either start in the same position as me or to even be able to reach their target BTC accumulation levels in a similar short period of time as me.. even though surely there are people who end up allocating into bitcoin much quicker than me, so that could end up affecting them in positive or negative ways, in part based on if they end up in profits or not.. and if so how much in profits.. and then managing such profits, if they have them... or riding through the volatility if they are not in profits for relatively extended periods of time.

Nonetheless the vast majority of normies do not have lump sums that they can front load into any investment (BTC or otherwise), and that is part of the reasons why DCAing tends to work well for normies to build an investment position, and it may well take them 10 years or longer to build a decently sized investment portfolio, whether their investments pay off well or not, in the beginning years of their investment, they may still be building the amount that they are able to invest in order to have more options that come from having had built a larger investment portfolio.. which tends to take many years rather than just being available for most normies.

DuckDuckGo Isn’t as Private as You Think

DuckDuckGo faces backlash over its privacy policy exceptions

The free speech search engine that never was

I was wondering when Google would try to challenge chatgpt because Google has been the best search engine in years but more people are now using chatgpt to find out their answers but people like me who prefer to have privacy started using duckduckgo. We might be witnessing the fall of Google which I think a lot of us here would approve of.

Thanks, but I will stick with ChatGPT for now as we already have a bit too much goog-that and that in our lives.

Explanation

Nobody said that you have to own a machine all by yourself, but, maybe, you should, if you can afford to spend $2000.
It is different around the world, but having $2K does not make you a rich person in OECD countries.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-64546299

@jjg...dude, it was all in my original post.
You were referring to a period from 2014 to now and my simple answer is this:

you are talking about investing (dcaing) $47K (nine years) during that period to accumulate 45 btc.
I did not invest anything close to that particular number, but if I take my investments (unevenly spread from 2014-2023) as X and calculate from there, then, in proportion, I got 113-114 BTC accumulated (surely, the actual number is completely different because 47K is a random number as well).
113 is a much bigger number than 45, is it not?
I don't profess an investment acumen, mostly it is due to bulk purchase earlier than later.

mining vs dcaing part is just a cherry on top.

TL;DR dca=average return, buying at the lows OR early (in bitcoin)=better return and if you think that you cannot put yourself to buying at the lows, then do some mining, for crying out loud.
People who bristle at mining have no clue about bitcoin. Bitcoin's heart is block validation via mining. Anything else, and it is NOT the same.

Mining is vital to btc survival but a lot of people can not afford to mine btc. It is centralized because only the rich can afford to mine. If mining was cheaper I think we would see a lot more people buying mining equipment and starting to mine but because it is not and the difficult will probably only rise we could see that a lot of transactions in the future will be more expensive to send because the investment that the miners need to make to process transactions is going to get higher and they must justify the increased costs by increasing the transaction fees. I think this could hurt btc because no one likes paying fees at the best of times but paying excessive fees will drive people away from btc.

Who said that I am angry?

I wrote my responsive post to you, and it should largely say what I had intended it to say.


So now you are changing the scenario?  Normies should mine instead of DCAing and/or buying in gulps?


I am not against buying in bulk purchases, but DCA is better.  Buying in bulk can be used as a supplement.

I wanted to get some response from you regarding how you would have done the last 9 years with buying in bulk rather than DCA.. give me your systematic approach that all normies should be able to understand..   and they should have started mining in November 2019?  right?


What is wrong with that?  I am trying to describe a generally applicable person.  Sure some folks have more skills than others, and everyone is capable of learning, but we still have less than 1% of the world's population in bitcoin, so it would not be very representative to consider normal people coming into bitcoin as if they are going to want to spend a lot of time studying the space.


Sure.. of course, but if you were whimpy about your buys because you were so busy waiting for dips that did not happen, then you may well have been better off to have a regular buying plan.

I am not even against holding back some of the $100 per week and maybe only buying $50 per week and saving the other $50 for buying on dips, but you seem to be suggesting buying way less frequently as if normal people are going to be able to figure out four year fractals or something like that.  Is that what you are ascribing to the talents and the inclinations of normal people?


We were not talking about mining.

You want all normies to mine.. that is even less realistic than getting them simply to buy some and get the fuck off zero.. so all of a sudden they are supposed to jump into mining..  Are you in the same world?  Technical geeks want to mine and no problem with that, but you want aunt bessy to mine or billynocoiner's grandma to start mining when she is not bringing him cookies and milk? 


Yes.. I know.  You have been distracted ever since I got to know you in this thread.  We are talking about bitcoin and you are talking about diversifying, and that is part of the reason why you had failed/refused to sufficiently/adequately stock up on bitcoin... similar to philip.. to be in bitcoin for more than 11 years and hardly have any bitcoin.. sure maybe you are not as much distracted as him, but you guys both have similar inclinations in which you failed/refused to adequately stock up on bitcoin and ONLY recently become more bullish on bitcoin but still have your non bullish inclinations and thinking that bitcoin is not much different than any other asset class (treating bitcoin as if it were a mature asset class.. and failing/refusing to adequately sto/ack up).


Yeah.. of course, you do not need to invest a lot in bitcoin in order to benefit stupendously; however, those earlier adopters who were more aggressive have tended to have gotten rewarded much better (as long as they did not devolve into gambling and did not otherwise over extent themselves in the bitcoin accumulation matters).


DCA is amongst the best of strategies for a variety of reasons... so we can agree to disagree because I have made my points many times already.. and so this is just repeating... I asked you to flesh out some kind of a way in which you or anyone else would have bought over the last 9 years to beat DCA, and you refused to cooperate. I even suggested some reasonable ways that you could tweak the hypothetical, but instead you got diverted into mining and largely just proclaiming your punchline conclusion that buying in gulps is better blah blah.. and as we should have already been able to see, your mere assertion that it is better hardly seems helpful when you fail/refuse to discuss how to apply it to something like a $100 per week income or maybe you start out with both a lump sum and a $100 per week income so then once you apply your system then we can compare it towards DCA.. and let's see which is better... and actually part of my point (that I keep repeating) is that the person who invested $100 per week in a DCA manner is likely going to have ended up doing much better than someone who might try to figure out when to apply $5,200 that had built up during a year, and that lump sum buyer in gulps ends up being a whimp which is likely the case with you relatively speaking (are we comparing ourselves, perhaps?..

 and I am suggesting on a repetitive basis that you have been more whimpy over the years in terms of your bitcoin accumulation and your easily distractedness into other ways of "putting your money to work" and then when it comes to buy bitcoin, you don't have any money to buy because you got it locked up in some mediocre performing stock... .and you cannot make up your mind or actually to commit to bitcoin because you are TOO BIGGY of a SCAREDY KITTY.  Sucks to be uie pooie... but it is what it is, except you trying to justify that DCA is not as good as buying in bulk when you cannot even describe what the fuck buying in bulk is and if any normie were to try to employ your system, they would end up as a low coiner or a no coiner and regretting that they had not bought more earlier.


It's a way to get someone to commit right away.. whether it is $100 per week, $10 per week or some other amount, and they can still buy on dips or do whatever they like but the $100 per week (or whatever is the DCA  amount) is just a means to make sure that they are keeping on keeping on and after 4-10 years, they are likely to have gotten a good change of investing... rather than spending all their money and having nothing to show for it..

Now sure, there are guys like you who want to be more involved and blah blah blah, so go ahead and do it, but you are not normal, and should not be acting as if the vast majority of peeps would be able to regularly be paying attention to bitcoin and other possible investments.  Regular people have to get the fuck off of zero... and DCA strategies help to facilitate that and also helps to facilitate that they have structured a strategy that is workable for their budget and their psychology..   They are not going to watch the charts every day and they are not going to try to figure out how set up a miner.  So get a grip.. on what  are the inclinations of normies, which largely normies do not know what the fuck is bitcoin, they are afraid of bitcoin, they are mislead, so DCA'ing allow them to get in when they otherwise would not have.. they would have merely spent their $5,200 per year on a trip to florida once or twice a year instead of actually investing their $47k and having something to show for it after 9 years in which they could have.. and following your system, they will end up NOT doing shit.. and they will go on their vacation once they get $2,600 twice a year or $5,200 once a year.

Explanation

@jjg...why so angry?

mining (starting when price is low and machines are cheap) beats dcaing hands down-as shown in my example.
bulk purchase does the same if you apply some brain power.

I don't really divide people into "normies' and , what, super-normies?
It is obvious to anyone than the earlier you bought, the better.
Going forward, I still submit that mining beats dca hands down (and provided the numbers to prove it).

Some people prefer investing in index funds and for majority it is better not to dart in and out of stocks, but some people (smaller %) can make more money in concentrated positions.
Same for bitcoin: dca is a valid strategy that is inferior for a smaller number of people and superior for most (but not all) people.
I, personally, found it (dca) tedious, but that's just me.

Did you read anything else in the post? Did you take it personally because you were trying to presume that the post is about something that it is not?

If you had not noticed, Biodom was adding a new topic.. If you read the post, maybe you would be able to understand some of the other words contained therein?