I respectfully disagree, we will not ever see 100 USD again, that is if we ever see it fall below - that would be the end of crypto. But this will not happen in a thousand years.
I do not know whether the price will go below 100$, but it is not impossible.
The current price is basically the result of three major surges in demand:
(1) Jan-Apr 2013 (that increased the price by about +125$, from ~15$ to ~140);
(2) Oct-Nov 2013 (increased by about +660$, from ~140$ to ~800$), and
(3) June 2014 (about +150$, from ~450$ to ~650$).
The first two events left the price at ~800$ in Jan/2014. From Feb to May the price fell by about -350$; the most likely cause is partial loss of the demand that caused bubble 2, the only one that seems large enough to cause such a drop. That would explain also the continuing drop since Jun/2014 (by about -300$).
If bubble 2 (only) deflates completely, the price may fall to 275$. A partial deflation of the other two bubbles would be enough to take the price below 100$.
I suspect that bubble 1 is Chinese too, but in the special economic zones, and perhaps with a different demographics from bubble 2. I still don't have a clue about bubble 3, but I see signs that it may be deflating too.
Oh, wow.
I gave up on arguing with you about your various misconceptions about how markets work, or your almost comical hunt for "causes" of local price increases, but this one is too good to pass on:
Current price is the result of "three bubbles", starting Jan 2013?
So the entire trading history of late 2010 to late 2012, when price discovery was truly bootstrapped, with maybe the first major milestone being dollar parity, is just a historical footnote? No effect on price today?
Three discrete events causally determine today's price. Got it.
