IMO the most probable thing is just a larger sideways, even if it fluctuates a lot from our microscopic view. It is hard to outdo this 5th October event. At the same time, we obviously have lots of overhead resistance, and it would take a long time to get through.
I'd discard all volume charts of 0% exchanges. As for why things look slightly differently on Bitfinex, that's obvious: 30k guy sold on Bitstamp, not Bitfinex. Bitstamp is where all eyes have been on those days, and thus IMO it's the one to look at (well, aside from the argument that Bitstamp is the only one free of potentially distorting leveraged volume).
Well, I do have to admit that I don't believe that someone who sells 30k on a single exchange at a single time at the termination of at least a local trend is very clever. In fact, the nature of this person appears to be so impulsive
He may have needed the money for something, urgently.
Or he may have become convinced that price would never get substantially higher than 300$, and could quickly get much lower. In that case, selling as quickly as possible was not a bad strategy. Moving part of the coins to another exchange would have taken time, and he may have felt that it was not worth running that risk.
Someone good at business does not get in a situation where he has to liquidate a large holding of an illiquid asset within <24h (sending the money FROM the exchange will take longer in itself anyway). In the second case, obviously his fears turned out unfounded. My point is just that yes, it's quite probable that this guy was clueless. The only real reason to sell in such a manner is if one had inside knowledge of an irreversible technical failure of Bitcoin, and if that was the case, good luck competing with all the devs.
