Explanation
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 24784. (Read 26712959 times)
October 31, 2014, 11:00:31 PM
October 31, 2014, 10:00:31 PM
October 31, 2014, 09:26:47 PM
Huobi having fun with itself again.
October 31, 2014, 09:23:48 PM
number of transactions just hit an all time high, first time we have been above last Decembers bubble peak....only this time is has got there from steady growth. Number of wallets used daily has been at an all time high for some time.....bitcoin continues to grow slowly and steadily.
But the total daily value of those transactions, in USD, has been pretty much the same since April, and is ~30% less than it was in Jan--Feb:
Estimated USD Transaction Volume
But, anyway, we STILL do not know how much of that traffic is "fake" (between addressed that belong to te same person; e.g. hotwallet/coldwallet flow, tumbling, deposit/withdrawal at exchanges, gambling sites and other "bitcoin banks"...)
UDS volume is up around 300% since last year may-december though, which ties in nicely with the price, and the steady growth in transactions means it's very unlikely to be fake.
October 31, 2014, 09:00:31 PM
October 31, 2014, 08:36:13 PM
Are coins going into cold storage now instead of out of? If so, the price should start to climb soon.
(8 weeks average chart)
(8 weeks average chart)
October 31, 2014, 08:15:11 PM
It's gonna bounce extremely hard when we find our low, till then expect crashes to continue. A week or little more if it continues like this btc will be below 200. I guess the first miners are switching off now.
So you are predicting a 40% drop in the next week or so, after a 70% decline from the ATH? Good luck!
Yeah... Seems pretty unlikely to go below $200... and even seems like it would be increasingly difficult to go below $320 or $300 or $275 or $266.....
Never say never in bitcoinlandia, but I am thinking that $320 is about as low as we go this time around... going below $300, $275 or $266 would be increased levels of improbabilities... even though NOT impossible... fairly improbable.
TL;DR
October 31, 2014, 08:14:24 PM
Steady, she goes. This is gonna end up fucking nasty if we don't see any upside soon
Podyx: I noticed that several of your recent posts have turned very doomy and gloomy. Have you converted into a full-fledged bear or are you just talking your book?
A couple of months ago you were talking about leveraging your total life savings to buy into BTC if prices were to drop, and NOW, you are talking doom and gloom.
October 31, 2014, 08:08:12 PM
It's gonna bounce extremely hard when we find our low, till then expect crashes to continue. A week or little more if it continues like this btc will be below 200. I guess the first miners are switching off now.
So you are predicting a 40% drop in the next week or so, after a 70% decline from the ATH? Good luck!
Yeah... Seems pretty unlikely to go below $200... and even seems like it would be increasingly difficult to go below $320 or $300 or $275 or $266.....
Never say never in bitcoinlandia, but I am thinking that $320 is about as low as we go this time around... going below $300, $275 or $266 would be increased levels of improbabilities... even though NOT impossible... fairly improbable.
October 31, 2014, 08:01:33 PM
number of transactions just hit an all time high, first time we have been above last Decembers bubble peak....only this time is has got there from steady growth. Number of wallets used daily has been at an all time high for some time.....bitcoin continues to grow slowly and steadily.
But the total daily value of those transactions, in USD, has been pretty much the same since April, and is ~30% less than it was in Jan--Feb:
Estimated USD Transaction Volume
But, anyway, we STILL do not know how much of that traffic is "fake" (between addressed that belong to te same person; e.g. hotwallet/coldwallet flow, tumbling, deposit/withdrawal at exchanges, gambling sites and other "bitcoin banks"...)
October 31, 2014, 08:00:30 PM
October 31, 2014, 07:57:53 PM
Don't know if already posted, but the big and historical mining pool BTCGuild shuts down on government regulation:
Pretty big news...
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2kwmhd/btcguild_shutting_down/
"it is a scary landscape to continue operating in"
Pretty big news...
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2kwmhd/btcguild_shutting_down/
"it is a scary landscape to continue operating in"
If it leads to more people creating a larger p2p pool I'd be ok with this trend. mind you I dont know the whole stability/vulnerabilities of a p2p pools.
BTC Guild Shutting Down Likely Being Sold
Earlier today, a news post was made identifying that BTC Guild would be shutting down on January 31, 2015. This post is still available in its entirety on the Bitcointalk forum (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9395478).
Just hours after making this post, multiple parties have expressed strong interest in purchasing BTC Guild and keeping it running. As a result, the previously announced timeline for closure of operations has been cancelled, and the site will likely continue without interruption.
This was just updated on the BTC Guild website after it was clear that it is almost certain that BTC Guild will not be shutting its doors. While I may be ending my watch over the pool in the coming months, it will continue.
Earlier today, a news post was made identifying that BTC Guild would be shutting down on January 31, 2015. This post is still available in its entirety on the Bitcointalk forum (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9395478).
Just hours after making this post, multiple parties have expressed strong interest in purchasing BTC Guild and keeping it running. As a result, the previously announced timeline for closure of operations has been cancelled, and the site will likely continue without interruption.
This was just updated on the BTC Guild website after it was clear that it is almost certain that BTC Guild will not be shutting its doors. While I may be ending my watch over the pool in the coming months, it will continue.
from https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9397724
October 31, 2014, 07:51:29 PM
^
Jup. Turns out you're right.
Jup. Turns out you're right.
October 31, 2014, 07:32:41 PM
Number of transactions excluding popular addresses - ATH
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false×pan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=
EDIT: I was the third with the news
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false×pan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=
EDIT: I was the third with the news
October 31, 2014, 07:31:12 PM
Don't know if already posted, but the big and historical mining pool BTCGuild shuts down on government regulation:
Pretty big news...
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2kwmhd/btcguild_shutting_down/
"it is a scary landscape to continue operating in"
Pretty big news...
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2kwmhd/btcguild_shutting_down/
"it is a scary landscape to continue operating in"
October 31, 2014, 07:14:39 PM
http://www.coindesk.com/australian-government-soon-hold-9-million-bitcoin-auction/
24518BTC for sale. Will Tim Draper take this chance to average down?
24518BTC for sale. Will Tim Draper take this chance to average down?
And if I remember correctly FBI still has around 100k from Ross, right? At this pace we are going to need a QE directly into bitcoin to pump the price.
October 31, 2014, 07:13:52 PM
number of transactions just hit an all time high, first time we have been above last Decembers bubble peak....only this time is has got there from steady growth. Number of wallets used daily has been at an all time high for some time.....bitcoin continues to grow slowly and steadily.
Not sure were you're getting the new all time high from... the 7 day smoothed view on blockchain.info (no. of tx excluding popular addresses) still shows the current value slightly below the previous peak...
No. of unique addresses is already at a new high though:
Anyway, I agree with your observation.
I don't usually look for reasons for market states, but if I had to, I'd probably say the 2nd growth spurt of 2013 (i.e. the rally to 1200 USD) vastly outgrew the network size based price, which led to the protracted bear market we're in now.
Since May this year, on the other hand, network growth is picking up nicely, judging by the commonly used metrics, while price is in constant decline, i.e. the reverse of what happened in late 2013. Eventually, there's a good chance the gap between network size motivated price and actual price will be substantial enough to cause the next growth spurt, but I don't claim to know when that is going to happen exactly.
October 31, 2014, 07:00:31 PM
October 31, 2014, 06:59:44 PM
http://www.coindesk.com/australian-government-soon-hold-9-million-bitcoin-auction/
24518BTC for sale. Will Tim Draper take this chance to average down?
24518BTC for sale. Will Tim Draper take this chance to average down?
October 31, 2014, 06:48:16 PM
number of transactions just hit an all time high, first time we have been above last Decembers bubble peak....only this time is has got there from steady growth. Number of wallets used daily has been at an all time high for some time.....bitcoin continues to grow slowly and steadily.
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