Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 24942.

BlindMayorBitcorn

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Quote from: NotLambchop on October 22, 2014, 04:07:28 PM

Quote from: brg444 on October 22, 2014, 03:56:10 PM

Quote from: NotLambchop on October 22, 2014, 03:44:09 PM

Quote from: brg444 on October 22, 2014, 03:34:43 PM

...
One could suggest they are responsible for current price action.
...

One could, if one was really desperate.

You would know about desperation Wink

I do. This thread oozed it ever since the bubble popped.

Some of that ooze is mine:/

Wary

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Who's there?

Quote from: N12 on October 22, 2014, 03:18:26 PM

They can reactivate Willy any time they choose.

Willy was buying bitcoin with non-existing money. Would Bitstamp agree to do it for them? If yes, would Bitstamp be able to do it without us noticing it and flocking to non-corrupted exchanges?

ChartBuddy

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NotLambchop

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on October 22, 2014, 07:11:29 PM

Quote from: byronbb on October 22, 2014, 06:57:25 PM

Everything is based on risk/reward. If someone gave you 3-1 on a coinflip you would accept it instantly, but you could easily lose. Moreover, if they demanded you wager your entire net worth, the math would direct you to decline the offer.

Indeed. The actual gain/loss is not linear on the monetary gain/loss.

If all your worth is 100'000$, earning another 100'000$ will only make your life a bit better; but losing 100'000$ woud be a terrible disaster, from which you may never recover.
...

And that's where hedonic calculus saves the day. The utility of an act measured neatly and scientifically in hedons (and dolors, the anti-hedons).

Adrian-x

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on October 22, 2014, 07:11:29 PM

Quote from: byronbb on October 22, 2014, 06:57:25 PM

Everything is based on risk/reward. If someone gave you 3-1 on a coinflip you would accept it instantly, but you could easily lose. Moreover, if they demanded you wager your entire net worth, the math would direct you to decline the offer.

Indeed. The actual gain/loss is not linear on the monetary gain/loss.

If all your worth is 100'000$, earning another 100'000$ will only make your life a bit better; but losing 100'000$ woud be a terrible disaster, from which you may never recover.

So, taking that bet at 3:1 chances, even though it has a +50'000 expected monetary return, has a hugely negative expected actual return. That is the reasoning behind the advice "only invest what you can afford to lose".

now apply that to economics, the 99% earn preinflation spend post inflation yet are clueless to the broader economic maths in our monetarist world, they just do the calculation with known information at hand, in the present only to learn (mostly never) the a central authority can change the risk/reward balance in the past with little regard for the future or for their benefit in the present at the stroke of a pen.

Odalv

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Quote from: fonzie on October 22, 2014, 04:51:43 PM

Sometimes when i´m really fucked up i think that shroomskit maybe is in fact one of the best trolls ever, and that he isn´t serious at all ? ? ? ? ?

BTW: I met your uncle.

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: byronbb on October 22, 2014, 06:57:25 PM

Everything is based on risk/reward. If someone gave you 3-1 on a coinflip you would accept it instantly, but you could easily lose. Moreover, if they demanded you wager your entire net worth, the math would direct you to decline the offer.

Indeed. The actual gain/loss is not linear on the monetary gain/loss.

If all your worth is 100'000$, earning another 100'000$ will only make your life a bit better; but losing 100'000$ woud be a terrible disaster, from which you may never recover.

So, taking that bet at 3:1 chances, even though it has a +50'000 expected monetary return, has a hugely negative expected actual return. That is the reasoning behind the advice "only invest what you can afford to lose".

brg444

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Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks

Quote from: byronbb on October 22, 2014, 06:57:25 PM

Quote from: brg444 on October 22, 2014, 03:29:22 PM

Quote from: mmitech on October 22, 2014, 03:19:45 PM

Quote from: N12 on October 22, 2014, 02:53:24 PM

Winklevosses, Draper, Horrowitz, Wilson, the list goes on and on and only serves to show: The establishment in Silicon Valley is already on board of Bitcoin, and they will never allow the price to get too low (long-term) as long as they haven't cashed out yet. If they wanted, they already have not only the financial but the legal means to prevent new lows. It's completely legal to manipulate Bitcoin prices.

nah, these guys loses millions in order to make millions, they don't profit in every single investment they make, they allow a really good amount of failure chance before investing, even Marc Andreessen admitted it last time when he was asked " do you allow for the fact that you could be wrong about Bitcoin?" you can watch his answer here

You don't understand the premise here. They can literally control this market at their whim.

It is not a coincidence that most major VCs are betting on Bitcoin. Of course the politically correct thing to say is they could be wrong but in the back of their head they have a pretty good sense that they're right.

Marc Andreesen also said they would be developing a 100 million dollar fund around Bitcoin/blockchain in the coming years. That doesn't appear to me like someone who truly thinks he could be wrong.

Everything is based on risk/reward. If someone gave you 3-1 on a coinflip you would accept it instantly, but you could easily lose. Moreover, if they demanded you wager your entire net worth, the math would direct you to decline the offer.

the risk is increasingly becoming NOT to invest in BTC Wink

ChartBuddy

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byronbb

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HODL OR DIE

Quote from: brg444 on October 22, 2014, 03:29:22 PM

Quote from: mmitech on October 22, 2014, 03:19:45 PM

Quote from: N12 on October 22, 2014, 02:53:24 PM

Winklevosses, Draper, Horrowitz, Wilson, the list goes on and on and only serves to show: The establishment in Silicon Valley is already on board of Bitcoin, and they will never allow the price to get too low (long-term) as long as they haven't cashed out yet. If they wanted, they already have not only the financial but the legal means to prevent new lows. It's completely legal to manipulate Bitcoin prices.

nah, these guys loses millions in order to make millions, they don't profit in every single investment they make, they allow a really good amount of failure chance before investing, even Marc Andreessen admitted it last time when he was asked " do you allow for the fact that you could be wrong about Bitcoin?" you can watch his answer here

You don't understand the premise here. They can literally control this market at their whim.

It is not a coincidence that most major VCs are betting on Bitcoin. Of course the politically correct thing to say is they could be wrong but in the back of their head they have a pretty good sense that they're right.

Marc Andreesen also said they would be developing a 100 million dollar fund around Bitcoin/blockchain in the coming years. That doesn't appear to me like someone who truly thinks he could be wrong.

Everything is based on risk/reward. If someone gave you 3-1 on a coinflip you would accept it instantly, but you could easily lose. Moreover, if they demanded you wager your entire net worth, the math would direct you to decline the offer.

derpinheimer

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Quote from: fonzie on October 22, 2014, 04:51:43 PM

Sometimes when i´m really fucked up i think that shroomskit maybe is in fact one of the best trolls ever, and that he isn´t serious at all ? ? ? ? ?

BTW: I met your uncle.

I think he originally was not a troll, but now enjoys his position with frequent dump crying.

brg444

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Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks

Quote from: NotLambchop on October 22, 2014, 06:02:51 PM

The lulziest one. The one that took Bitcoin to ATH, persuading some lunatics that it wasn't a fluke but a reasonable "investment."
To this day some refuse to accept their pathetic predicament, clinging clumsily to their (grossly devalued) coin in hopes of Fortuna smiling upon them again.
But, just like me, she responds only with guileless, childlike laughter.

can't wait for the next fluke

BBmmBB

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Quote from: fonzie on October 22, 2014, 04:51:43 PM

Sometimes when i´m really fucked up i think that shroomskit maybe is in fact one of the best trolls ever, and that he isn´t serious at all ? ? ? ? ?

BTW: I met your uncle.

http://i61.tinypic.com/2eq3xxj.jpg

LMFAOOOOOO Cheesy

NotLambchop

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Quote from: inca on October 22, 2014, 05:13:41 PM

Quote from: NotLambchop on October 22, 2014, 04:07:28 PM

Quote from: brg444 on October 22, 2014, 03:56:10 PM

Quote from: NotLambchop on October 22, 2014, 03:44:09 PM

Quote from: brg444 on October 22, 2014, 03:34:43 PM

...
One could suggest they are responsible for current price action.
...

One could, if one was really desperate.

You would know about desperation Wink

I do. This thread oozed it ever since the bubble popped.

Which of the numerous bubbles are you referring to specifically?

The lulziest one. The one that took Bitcoin to ATH, persuading some lunatics that it wasn't a fluke but a reasonable "investment."
To this day some refuse to accept their pathetic predicament, clinging clumsily to their (grossly devalued) coin in hopes of Fortuna smiling upon them again.
But, just like me, she responds only with guileless, childlike laughter.

ChartBuddy

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Explanation

Wandererfromthenorth

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We will have to decide where we wanna go soon.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised if we break down and BTC corrects itself to like $330-$350, but we'll see.
Huobi wall is still there for now...