Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 24970. (Read 26711355 times)

Interesting question but you also need to consider the profit generated by sale of mining rigs. VC investment is only one component of the invested capital. If we speculate that many companies follow KNC's and BitFury's mining model, then it is likely that only a fraction of their VC money is required to keep running :

Step 1. Design & produce a chip
Step 2. Mine bitcoins with new chip
Step 3. Sell new chip to clients
Step. 4. Use profit from sale to fund development of a newer chip

Rinse & Repeat.

At present it appears that only the business of manufacturing chip & selling them is profitable to some entities. Therefore, for the biggest ones out there, using their chip to mine on a larger scale could seem like an extra curricular activity with limited effect on their short term bottom line and considerable upside on the long term

Explanation

Where ??

very low indeed.  we can wish they would capitulate, but no one can make them do so.

the monkey says they will be happy in 2 months.

monkey has been good to me lately. 20 pct realized gains in the past month on monkey trades in rates, fx, equities.  

monkey had me buying btc below 327 and holding now.

Ok, fair enough. Thanks for the link, this is actually interesting.

I'm curious though if such miners will keep their faith and hold on to their coins with an iron fist even if the bear market continues into 2015. Time will tell, I guess.

Edit: On second thought, if large parts of the mining industry are subventionized by VC like that... how low would the price be without such subventions that allow miners to keep their coins off the market?  

http://www.coindesk.com/bitfury-raises-20-million-asic-development-mining-output/

This is from the CEO of one of most important industrial scale mining operations.

For most of them, the "massive regular expenses" are paid for by massive VC investements. Don't forget that these entities also sell mining rigs at massive profit.


This money is more than enough to cover for expenses. There was a miner convention no later than last week that kind of drove this point home : miners are some of the most bullish actors in the BTC scene. It is misguided to assume that they are selling most of their coins.

I am not arguing your analysis of the market but I don't believe your "inflation" argument to be a valid concern

Explanation

Bitcoin....?    Oh Ripple???   FUCK THAT... u beee talkn bout the Rips....  

First off, I never talked about coins being dumped on exchanges. Maybe you are mistaking me for someone else? Also, my assertion still stands that a continuously watered down supply side increases downward pressure on the price, and I see no use in arguing that. Maybe your position is that there is no intersection between the OTC market and exchanges, but I have no reason to believe that this is actually the case. Actually, one obvious counter-example I can spontaneously think of would be the user "loaded", who is participating both in the OTC market and on the exchanges.

Second, I am doubtful that large industrial-scale mining operations engage in the speculation business on top of their main (mining) business. They most likely have massive regular expenses for employees, electricity, rent and of course for new hardware in order to stay competitive in the race for a large slice of the hash rate pie. I'd say this indicates that a certain amount of coins has to be sold in order to keep the operations running. And even if they are engaging in speculation - this just means that another failed attempt at a sustained rally will force them to sell a bunch of their held-back coins as soon as they realize that new buyers are not coming in to carry the rally further. So, that gives me one more reason why I suspect this current rally to fail spectacularly once the bulls run out of steam and momentum begins to decline.

Third, you are arguing on the basis of a rally that has not materialized yet. All I see right now is an insignificant bounce that hardly registers on the 2y chart, which may or may not develop into something bigger. Which brings me back to my initial posting, where I suggest that the bullish sentiment is irrational at the moment: We just crashed from the worryingly low sub-400 levels to the shockingly low sub-300 levels. Not too long ago the vast majority here seemed to be convinced that we would never revisit such low prices again. Now we FINALLY had the first significant bounce after going down ~$400 all the way from $660 since this summer, but we are still struggling to even break back above $400. This does not seem very bullish to me, in fact I find it quite worrisome.

Also, we had a similar high-volume bounce situation back in march, right before the failed summer rally that couldn't carry itself beyond the $660 point, despite the bulls being immensely euphoric and going all in (as indicated by the all time high in the number of usd-swaps on finex). I don't see why it should turn out any different this time. A high volume bounce obviously does not guarantee a sustainable rally afterwards, but this seems to be the bulls' main argument for why the bear market is now supposedly behind us.

I heard rumours about a massive Ripple dump...

 

It is definitely not a pic suggesting that someone is dumping something.

What do you mean with your pic?

Is he digging the Bitcoin's grave?

https://i.imgur.com/rrMTZBF.jpg

Depends on whether you think a certain protocol might save the day.

Twatter=exactly nothing. Geez dude

https://twitter.com/wsculley

Recent tweets = gonna be huge and bullish as fuck. Don't cut your loose. Next 24 are crit. CCMF!

 

Given that overall the last few weeks, including weekends had produced pretty decent volume.  This weekend  has been pretty low volume - accordingly, I had been expecting a boost in volume and an attempt to test the downward resistance - maybe push towards lower $370s or maybe a little lower.. yet if that will result in a price upsurge, who knows?

I am beginning to think the Bitcoin market in its current shape would be much better off without these relatively high volume zero-fee Chinase exchanges and their washtrades.
They are either clinically insane or do nothing else but bare manipulations in a way which forces the average price into a monotone downward trend (let alone that it might would be in a similar shape on it's own anyway, so it really doesn't need this).

we still above friday's price

Maybe they want the price to move up and dump higher later on.