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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 25046. (Read 26710076 times)

N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
It will stop before 420. There we go down again. 400 again within 2 hours. Down from there.
Hahahahahaha. Repent, idiot trader!
hero member
Activity: 894
Merit: 501
the 15min chart looks way too much like the last two bubbles. Loving this fractal shit
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
It will stop before 420. There we go down again. 400 again within 2 hours. Down from there.
legendary
Activity: 1133
Merit: 1163
Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos
414 eaten in another gulp...we have a bear slayer on stamp, just keeps taking out those walls
sr. member
Activity: 952
Merit: 281
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
full member
Activity: 157
Merit: 100
Where's Adam... CannabisCoin pump in progress  Shocked
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1010
I have suggested watching the hash rate to find the bottom.  Why?  Well, if miners start taking machines offline, it affects supply by reducing the coins mined to the normal 3600 daily or less.  But more importantly, it indicates the lowest price that miners must sell at to make a profit (of course every miner will have a slightly different level).  Any lower and miners must hold and hope for a price increase.  To sell would guarantee that they couldn't pay the monthly bills.  That behavior could dramatically affect supply.

It looks like we are at the point:

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty


This isn't a statistical artifact due to a bad luck streak?

I'm not going to calculate it either, but the effect was actually visible 2 weeks ago.  I held off posting to eliminate statistical artifacts.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1010
I have suggested watching the hash rate to find the bottom.  Why?  Well, if miners start taking machines offline, it affects supply by reducing the coins mined to the normal 3600 daily or less.  But more importantly, it indicates the lowest price that miners must sell at to make a profit (of course every miner will have a slightly different level).  Any lower and miners must hold and hope for a price increase.  To sell would guarantee that they couldn't pay the monthly bills.  That behavior could dramatically affect supply.

It looks like we are at the point:

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty




its already known that at todays hasrate, at 0.1 usd per kwh electricity it cost 131 usd per bitcoin, that before the cost ROI of miner.

but yes 300 seem to be the bottom.

This is a theoretical calculation that does not take into account factors like rent, salaries, AC, and the variety of hashing hardware currently deployed.  Seeing the hash rate level off or even drop indicates the true level where a significant fraction of the least efficient hardware is being turned off.
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
haha gl to the shorters, you're gonna need it  Grin

Tons of shorts opened ~350-375, and ~450.

Lots closed the last few days but you gotta feel for the poor souls who shorted at $275

(JK)
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1010
I have suggested watching the hash rate to find the bottom.  Why?  Well, if miners start taking machines offline, it affects supply by reducing the coins mined to the normal 3600 daily or less.  But more importantly, it indicates the lowest price that miners must sell at to make a profit (of course every miner will have a slightly different level).  Any lower and miners must hold and hope for a price increase.  To sell would guarantee that they couldn't pay the monthly bills.  That behavior could dramatically affect supply.
Won't there on average be 3600 coins mined daily regardless of hashing power? Not sure I understand this argument...

i think he meant that at certain level, miner will hoard instead of selling

No, hash rate changes every 2 weeks, but meanwhile mining capacity is being added or removed from the network.  So we got (IIRC) blocks every 7 minutes on average or (for example) about 4200 coins per day during the big mining rise.  Over the last 9 months the market has gotten used to these extra coins.  If we drop to steady hashing, 600 coins per day will have a cumulative effect.  Sure this is a LOT less then volume but remember the same coin is traded many times.  If the hash rate actually drops then for 2 weeks fewer than 3600 coins will be mined.
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
ShroomsKit going to miss the train  Cheesy


hush hush... did you hear that... i think shroomie is crying...  Cheesy
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
Is Shroomsy going to be ranting about "fucking idiot buyers" now? Huh
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
Please quote a single statement I have made you think is "wrong"
...
abortive rally

Answered your own question.

 Smiley

Lol, rally means going up, not peaking and flopping back down.  But you might have better luck in the future, looks like it's been "trending" up again for the last few hours Smiley
Hold on to your dreams!
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
ShroomsKit going to miss the train  Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
Choo Choo ShroomsKit. Its giving me great pleasure watching you lose money.
sr. member
Activity: 260
Merit: 251
legendary
Activity: 1133
Merit: 1163
Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos
406 wall eaten in one gulp
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