Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 2515. (Read 26711027 times)

Will 18K hold or....

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Well it is an attack vector to keep an eye on.

I don't care with any shitcoin, this is Bitcoin forum.

I am thinking we are going to be okay

Proudhon predicted on Jan 9 we would fall back under 17k by Jan 14 and never have a 5 day stretch over 17k this year.

so the next few days are critical

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Twitter Developing ‘Coins’ Feature With Stripe Payments



SOURCE

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Bitcoin Miss Universe 2023

https://twitter.com/carlbmenger/status/1613470192536788994?s=46&t=GxMNB1Jcg65k0AA1RiSv6Q

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A bear in a bull disguise is the perfect meme for what is going on.

I reckon we are going to dump again to around 17.5K later today and probably further down throughout the year.

Regardless if I am right, I think the stock market optimism we are seeing waiting on the CPI data from the USA is misplaced.
The fundamentals still suck:

Job losses (banking sector only just starting), Europe mammoth energy price increases (in fact here in the UK much of the government support is going to disappear in the next several months making inflation worse again) - much of the wholesale costs have somewhat stabilised but parasitic energy companies will still take their increased cut - it will never be cheap again, Ukraine carry on still ongoing with no end in sight, China Covid spreading which will coincide with their new year celebrations (just like 3 years ago! Remember Nancy Pelosi encouraging people to come down to Chinatown?!), corrupt criminals in charge everywhere, unpayable government debts with rising interest rates making the interest nearly unpayable also, governments not facing reality and still announcing trillion dollar spending bills.

If people cannot access cheap debt and are having to tighten their belts, so should the governments. But this is not a popular move and with elections coming up in the next few years in the USA and UK I cannot see anyone changing course in the short term.

In a normal world people would indeed escape to Bitcoin and dump their shitty going to zero fiat currencies.
But we are seeing the opposite happen when the shit hits the fan. And why?
Because we live in a:

🤡🌏

 

don't you know pump it up...🎶🚀🥳😁

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This is like you learn to play poker.
First stage, you lose all your chips in the many ways of this game.
Then you either quit, or you actually keep learning the few ways how to build and hodl your stack.

Some even get caught in the slot machine alley before they can even see the tables, though  

Explanation

You make several good points here, and surely getting back above the 200-week moving average would surely be a good start, and the 200-week moving average is now close to $24,500. but still trending upwards ever so slightly. and we should not have been so far below the 200-week moving average for so long.. which had gotten as low as 35% below the 200-week moving average.. .. but yeah, seemingly some pretty extreme issues in the fucking around with bitcoin space.. even though I am not sure if Barry and Sam is in the same camp of criminal.. because on the surface, at least Barry seems to have had been appearing to run a legitimate operation.... and there are some other BIG ass cascade of scamming entities and persons starting out with the Luna/Terra Do Kwon bullshit, which seemed to have had started the cascading fall of degenerate gamblers including but not limited to a bunch of them, and some of them in a greater degree of rug-pulledness in which there might be question about whether clients will be getting their money back or not.. or questions about whether assets are there or recoverable or not.

Some of the criminals are still on the run, no?  We got 3AC with those two guys on the run, and we got Celsius and that guy still free, Voyager and Blockfi, Genesis and golly gee Gemini.. all with various degrees of who is culpable.. we cannot even say that the fall out is done.

Maybe I am not going to start to feel confident that the bottom is in until we get somewhere above the 200-week moving average, and perhaps I would not be so conservative to require the 100-week moving average which is now at a bit above $37.5k. but starting to trend downward.

It would be nice to get up to $30k in this run.. I am just not sure if I would be able to be that confident.. even if we might give it a few months to play out, like the 2019 price rise that had gone for three months with a 3.5x from $4,200 to $13,880.. but then those were different times, and you are not even expecting as much.. you are ONLY expecting about a 2x out of this run, so you are not exactly being outrageous when you target $30k... but still.. you might be experiencing some possible irrational exuberance with that number.. based on our ONLY having in the best way of framing it a $1k 8-hour price burst... I am trying to remember some of the great UPpity short term price runs of the past, and I remember a 12-hour period in late 2019.... something like October 25th coming to memory.... wasn't it that took us from about $7.4k to $10k.. something like that... (this chart/site is able to show it). But those were different times too, and it is not as if king daddy does not have any kind of outrageous price run within it's current capabilities.. especially when having had experienced a considerable amount of recent over suppression.. if that might be a fair way of characterizing some of our recent price traumas..

Hard to say, for sure..


I suppose since you are in a kind of denial stage, I am not sure if I should maybe recategorize you into a play silly games win silly prizes group, but many of us realize that the Martingale betting strategy is a losers game, so I am not sure if that's what variation you are suggesting.. Yours is seeming even more degenerate.. so maybe a Martingale degenerate versions?  Or would there be a more fitting category for your funzies that might win and it might not?

Hey I could give you some benefit of the doubt, and suggest that it is all about bet size, so perhaps if you are merely playing around with a few thousand satoshis, then who really cares in the whole scheme of things in regards to the BIG game that you are playing that is largely not a generally applicable or repeatable winning strategy.. in udder words, sounds like a lozers game, even though u seem to be having lot's of funzies along the way.. and hopefully grandma keeps the cookies and milks rollin in because I would hate for uie-pooie to run out of nutritions.... if we dare to label what grandma brings, as such.. and hey teething can be tough too, right?