Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 25199. (Read 26608939 times)

I don't visit ripple forums, nor do i post about it on fb, or tell anyone they should invest only my mother and girlfriend know i even own a lot of bitcoins. I talked my sister out of investing @ $600 because i wouldn't be held responsible if she lost anything.

so tell me, who do i try to convince to invest?

he only ever comes here to post stupid shit about ripple

last year we had a 2-3 months of trading between $90-120, it was then when I decided to invest more, it was clear (or felt) to me that something was developing, I didn't expect 1000 but I was thinking about 400.

We could go from 330 to 430 but then we could fall back to 280 and so on... the average price of that week and the weeks ahead are not that far, by looking at the 1w chart(long term) even when the price is volatile a normal sane investor could catch that bottom average price, but an investor that panic each time could lose everything.

look at the 1w chart, regardless of the pumps and dumps and guys yelling about reversal and whatnot... it is still damn accurate and clear about the last bubble not totally bursting, I sold between 580-630 and I kept holding my fiat (till yesterday I bought at 300 and sold at 318) just by looking to that chart every week, even when there is an action I wait till that week candle close and wait for the next one to see how it will perform, and till now it still showing a bearish market.

1w chart ( from septemebr 2011- October 2014)





I might be wrong, and this market could react totally the contrary of my understanding, but I am willing to give it a try

  

someone that doesn't like Bitcoin could say the same: "you might be the first person i ignore just because you're so desperately trying to scam people into buying Bitcoin"

After a harsh corrective wave A, the bear market of April - July 2013 traded in a relatively narrow range, not with extreme volatility.

It doesn't have to be flat to trade below major resistance levels, and could take 4 - 5 months, not weeks, to break the 680$.
And that's in the bullish scenario, where we already hit THE bottom. In the bearish one it's going to be scary even for bottom fishers.

you might be the first person i ignore just because you're so desperately trying to scam people into buying ripple

There will be no bubble until venture capitalists stop funding unnecessary startups and instead send their fiat directly to exchanges.

That's debatable.

And you reach that conclusion based on what exactly?


We don't have much precedents to work with, as Bitcoin trading history is only ~4 years old. During that time, 3 major rally/capitulation cycles took place, and we're still in the capitulation part of the of the 3rd one. (There are other ways to parse the  trading history, but this one's fairly well accepted.)

I'm mentioning this because any extrapolation from so little data points is of course dubious. Then again, it's the best we have.  

So, what do the two completed capitulations look like that we've seen so far:

2013:
bottom 1 = ~$50, the initial post-ATH crash.
bottom 2 = ~$65, about 3 months later.

In between: extreme volatility. Nothing like a flat bottom that allowed you scoop up "cheap coins" at will. Also, 2nd bottom already 30% higher than the first.


2011:
bottom 1 = ~$2, at the end of the almost straight down, multi month correction
bottom 2 = ~$2, about 1 month after the first.

Maybe that's where you get the idea from that you could scoop up cheap coins for weeks before it goes up again. The only problem - even in the 2011 double bottom, there was extreme volatility in between. Price went from $2 to almost $4 (i.e. +100%), before coming down again.


tl;dr There's not much data to work with, given the short trading history of Bitcoin, but from what we have seen so far, a flat capitulation bottom, stretched out over weeks, doesn't seem likely.

Look up what "there are no girls on the internet" really means.


Also, I for one welcome our 2.5% share of womenfolk in here. Because, otherwise:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Wl_uQOABxg

The collective noun being dickheads?

Really, the male obsession over the internal combustion engine is quite pitiful.

you mean the ones that got voted by a free and democratic process ?

Yes usually the last flash crash the establishes a bottom that will last for months is followed by a quick high volume rebound, at least for the last few cycles.

And you reach that conclusion based on what exactly?


We don't have much precedents to work with, as Bitcoin trading history is only ~4 years old. During that time, 3 major rally/capitulation cycles took place, and we're still in the capitulation part of the of the 3rd one. (There are other ways to parse the  trading history, but this one's fairly well accepted.)

I'm mentioning this because any extrapolation from so little data points is of course dubious. Then again, it's the best we have.  

So, what do the two completed capitulations look like that we've seen so far:

2013:
bottom 1 = ~$50, the initial post-ATH crash.
bottom 2 = ~$65, about 3 months later.

In between: extreme volatility. Nothing like a flat bottom that allowed you scoop up "cheap coins" at will. Also, 2nd bottom already 30% higher than the first.


2011:
bottom 1 = ~$2, at the end of the almost straight down, multi month correction
bottom 2 = ~$2, about 1 month after the first.

Maybe that's where you get the idea from that you could scoop up cheap coins for weeks before it goes up again. The only problem - even in the 2011 double bottom, there was extreme volatility in between. Price went from $2 to almost $4 (i.e. +100%), before coming down again.


tl;dr There's not much data to work with, given the short trading history of Bitcoin, but from what we have seen so far, a flat capitulation bottom, stretched out over weeks, doesn't seem likely.

And you reach that conclusion based on what exactly?


We don't have much precedents to work with, as Bitcoin trading history is only ~4 years old. During that time, 3 major rally/capitulation cycles took place, and we're still in the capitulation part of the of the 3rd one. (There are other ways to parse the  trading history, but this one's fairly well accepted.)

I'm mentioning this because any extrapolation from so little data points is of course dubious. Then again, it's the best we have.  

So, what do the two completed capitulations look like that we've seen so far:

2013:
bottom 1 = ~$50, the initial post-ATH crash.
bottom 2 = ~$65, about 3 months later.

In between: extreme volatility. Nothing like a flat bottom that allowed you scoop up "cheap coins" at will. Also, 2nd bottom already 30% higher than the first.


2011:
bottom 1 = ~$2, at the end of the almost straight down, multi month correction
bottom 2 = ~$2, about 1 month after the first.

Maybe that's where you get the idea from that you could scoop up cheap coins for weeks before it goes up again. The only problem - even in the 2011 double bottom, there was extreme volatility in between. Price went from $2 to almost $4 (i.e. +100%), before coming down again.


tl;dr There's not much data to work with, given the short trading history of Bitcoin, but from what we have seen so far, a flat capitulation bottom, stretched out over weeks, doesn't seem likely.

rule no. 16. There are NO girls on the internet.